Al East:
Team Beilis:
What’s To Like: Let’s start off with a quick stat:
The last three times Beilis has had a season above .500 = 0 finals appearances
The last three times Beilis had a season .500 or lower= three finals appearances
In fact, the last three times a team has made the finals with a .500 or lower winning percentage they were all Beilis’ teams.
It may be a genius strategy at this point for Marty to draft a team that won’t win oo many games during the regular season. If that is his goal this year, then I think he may have succeeded.
So what does Marty do if he can’t draft his favorite player, Noel Gluck? He takes the player who is most comparable in skill set: Nick Martino. The best thing going for Team Beilis is infield defense.
Team Questions: Health is going to be a big concern for a few players this year. James Dell’alba is a great pick in the second round, but will his knees hold up? Leo Friedlich is a great pitcher, but how is his back? I think Dace Clampffer will have a huge bounce back year, but he’s going to have to if this offense is going to be any kind of threat.
Best Draft Pick: James Dell’alba had a huge offensive season last year despite a slow start. His numbers this season should be right up there with the top 4 or 5 hitters in the league.
Prediction: 9-13
Team Pollock:
What’s To Like: When preparing for the draft, Matt and I never thought we’d be able to get both Adam Greenspan and Jared Goldberg. Just like last year, we have a lineup that’s going to be among the top scoring teams in the league. Two keys to our team last year were our pitching and how well the second half of our lineup performed. Not only did we get Herm again, but we have last year’s 7th, 8th, 9th,11th, and 12th picks. Amazingly, the offensive numbers of the six players we have that were not on last year’s team have collective (slightly) better offensive numbers than the six we were not able to bring back. The last two champions of the league have been the teams who scored the most runs during the season. This is a team that could very well lead the league in that category this year.
Team Questions: While I expect our team will do very well offensively, there very well could be a downgrade in defense. The good news is that defense was supposed to be our Achilles’ heel last season, but we answered the critics. We also have a slightly slower team this year which may sporadically cost us some runs during the year.
Best Draft Pick: Last year it was getting Brock Hor late in the second round that made us feel like we could have a heart of the lineup that would make things very difficult for opposing teams. This year it was getting Jared in the second round that makes us feel the same way.
Prediction: 13-9
Team Wallman:
What’s To Like: Team Wallman is the new Team Goldfarb. Part of the reason of course is the inclusion of the Bykofskys, a great value as a 1 and a 3. Like Team Goldfarb from last year, there may not be a lot of firepower, but this team can get on base as often as anyone thanks to perhaps the picks in the draft: The Silbermans. Add the fact that they have a very solid defense and you have the recipe for a team that will be very hard to beat.
Team Questions: The lack of power makes it essential that this team strings together hits in order to compete with some of the more powerful lineups in the league. There may be some guys where the offense will be kept to very few runs.
Best Draft Pick: I said it before, but getting the Silbermans in the 5th gives this team the on base machines they need to be an elite team.
Prediction: 13-9
Team Mamone:
What’s To Like: The first year captain has put together a team that has a little of everything. Speed(Mamone), power(Conti, Turner, Tvrdik, Mamone), and good defense(Polguy, Mamone again). This well balanced attack should keep this team consistently competitive.
Team Questions: I won’t mention names, but there are a few players who I thought went a round or two too early. This has a good chance of affecting the offensive output more than it does the defense.
Best Draft Pick: Tom Tvrdik is the real deal and will provide the same boost to Team Mamone as he did to Team Goldfarb last year.
Prediction: 11-11
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
NL West preview
NL WEST:
Team Feldman
What’s To Like: This is going to be the best Feldman team in a long time. Feldman reunites three key members of the 2010 champs, Pat Brock, Justin Brock, and Dave Polzer. Sean Feldman is one of the best OFers and is going to prove to be a bargain as a “6”. Rosenthal and Glazier provide good pop and guarantees that it’s not just the big trio at top that can do some damage.
Team Questions: Like most teams, the bottom of the lineup might prove to be very vulnerable. Most of the late picks are young enough to turn the corner and become solid players, but if the trend continues then it will be a concern.
Best Draft Pick: I know everybody was concerned with getting a shortstop in the first two rounds, but how did Polzer last into the third round? Another prediction of mine: This will never happen again.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Goldfarb:
What’s To Like: A defense with the left side consisting of Gluck, Alex Goldfarb, and Ari Mesmer will likely play into hitter’s head. As long as Marty keeps pitching righties inside, their defense will be in good shape. Ari as a late 2 is a bargain. He’ll have to have a great season to keep this offense respectable. Marty has a reputation for being a great arc pitcher, so the rule change could make an already good pitcher even better.
Team Questions: I won’t mention names, but I feel a couple of picks were taken perhaps a round too early. There are a few bright spots further down the lineup, specifically Dave Mallow, but scoring runs consistently might be an issue.
Best Draft Pick: I think Justin Conklin has a chance to win Most Improved Player this year from what I’ve seen.
Prediction: 11-11
Team Randell:
What’s To Like: First of all, any team that has JZ becomes a championship contender. Kudos to Randell for being the 10th team to pick in the first round and still being able to nab the best overall player in the league. Ok, enough buttering up to the league’s MVP: Randell’s next couple of picks could not have gone any better. This lineup may not be as deep as other teams, but they make up for it with a ridiculously good top of the lineup. They also have one of the best pitchers in the league in Mike Seidel.
Team Questions: Randell is taking a big risk by moving himself to shortstop. He’s a great second baseman, but being a shortstop is a whole different ballgame. I think the team could have used another bat or two in the second half of the draft. The innings where the big guns aren’t up could be trouble.
Best Draft Pick: Trading for JZ was a brilliant move. Rothschild should have won Most Improved Player two years in a row! He’ll continue improving and play like a borderline “1” this year.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Younger:
What’s To Like: Team Younger has a great infield defense and a couple of Yockels who should bounce back and have nice offensive years.
Team Questions: Is it just me or are there a lot of natural shortstops on this team? Peragine is a great player but is missing up to 5 games(and 1 playoff game) which creates a big hole. I am not convinced that the offense is going to score enough runs to compete with some other potent lineups in their division. Now that I said that, I think I guaranteed that Team Younger is going to end up leading the league in runs!
Best Draft Pick: Last year’s stats won’t show it, but Eric Lurie was HUGE in the playoffs for us last year, batting .500 over the course of the 11 games. He might be the perfect case of somebody who just needed time to figure the pitching out.
Prediction: 8-14
Team Feldman
What’s To Like: This is going to be the best Feldman team in a long time. Feldman reunites three key members of the 2010 champs, Pat Brock, Justin Brock, and Dave Polzer. Sean Feldman is one of the best OFers and is going to prove to be a bargain as a “6”. Rosenthal and Glazier provide good pop and guarantees that it’s not just the big trio at top that can do some damage.
Team Questions: Like most teams, the bottom of the lineup might prove to be very vulnerable. Most of the late picks are young enough to turn the corner and become solid players, but if the trend continues then it will be a concern.
Best Draft Pick: I know everybody was concerned with getting a shortstop in the first two rounds, but how did Polzer last into the third round? Another prediction of mine: This will never happen again.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Goldfarb:
What’s To Like: A defense with the left side consisting of Gluck, Alex Goldfarb, and Ari Mesmer will likely play into hitter’s head. As long as Marty keeps pitching righties inside, their defense will be in good shape. Ari as a late 2 is a bargain. He’ll have to have a great season to keep this offense respectable. Marty has a reputation for being a great arc pitcher, so the rule change could make an already good pitcher even better.
Team Questions: I won’t mention names, but I feel a couple of picks were taken perhaps a round too early. There are a few bright spots further down the lineup, specifically Dave Mallow, but scoring runs consistently might be an issue.
Best Draft Pick: I think Justin Conklin has a chance to win Most Improved Player this year from what I’ve seen.
Prediction: 11-11
Team Randell:
What’s To Like: First of all, any team that has JZ becomes a championship contender. Kudos to Randell for being the 10th team to pick in the first round and still being able to nab the best overall player in the league. Ok, enough buttering up to the league’s MVP: Randell’s next couple of picks could not have gone any better. This lineup may not be as deep as other teams, but they make up for it with a ridiculously good top of the lineup. They also have one of the best pitchers in the league in Mike Seidel.
Team Questions: Randell is taking a big risk by moving himself to shortstop. He’s a great second baseman, but being a shortstop is a whole different ballgame. I think the team could have used another bat or two in the second half of the draft. The innings where the big guns aren’t up could be trouble.
Best Draft Pick: Trading for JZ was a brilliant move. Rothschild should have won Most Improved Player two years in a row! He’ll continue improving and play like a borderline “1” this year.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Younger:
What’s To Like: Team Younger has a great infield defense and a couple of Yockels who should bounce back and have nice offensive years.
Team Questions: Is it just me or are there a lot of natural shortstops on this team? Peragine is a great player but is missing up to 5 games(and 1 playoff game) which creates a big hole. I am not convinced that the offense is going to score enough runs to compete with some other potent lineups in their division. Now that I said that, I think I guaranteed that Team Younger is going to end up leading the league in runs!
Best Draft Pick: Last year’s stats won’t show it, but Eric Lurie was HUGE in the playoffs for us last year, batting .500 over the course of the 11 games. He might be the perfect case of somebody who just needed time to figure the pitching out.
Prediction: 8-14
2012 Pre-Season Predictions
Let the 2012 Marlboro Softball season begin! These predictions are just for fun and apologies to anyone who has their feelings hurt. I try to keep things as positive as possible, but honesty is important as well. I’m going to post one division every day or two. Feel free to make comments on the blog.
NL East
Team Jacoby
What’s To Like: Just like Pollock’s first two rounds last year, Jacoby was able to get a perennial MVP candidate despite not having the first selection and then get one of the most consistently great hitters, Brock Hor, in the second round. This formula worked well with our team last year, so the same may be true for another rookie captain this year.
Team Questions: I’m usually wary of taking rookies, and Team Jacoby has more first year players than any other team this year. There is usually an adjustment period needed for players coming into the league, and if they all stumble out of the gate then offense can be a problem.
Best Draft Pick: That being said about rookies, the Fradkin pick can end up being the best in the draft. Ed is by far the best offensive player in the league, and after seeing Mike’s tryout, I wouldn’t be surprised if they both end up playing like first rounders.
Prediction- 10-12
Team Schefkind
What’s To Like: This is a very well-balanced team that should have a lot of intensity. There’s not one bad pick in the bunch and a few players can catapult this team to one of the elite if they have the seasons they are capable of having.
Team Questions: I’m not sure who the shortstop is going to be, but it doesn’t seem like there is a proven answer yet.
Best Draft Pick: Malayz hit close to .600 as a rookie and can prove himself to be worthy of a first round pick with a similar season this year. It was only 2 years ago that Mark Persily hit .597. If he can find that stroke again then he’ll be one of the league’s biggest steal as an 8th rounder.
Prediction- 13-9
Team Applebaum
What’s To Like: Last year Team Applebaum won only five games so this squad should be better almost by default. Their outfield defense should be very strong and the bottom half of this lineup can match up with anybody else’s. Marter, Gershman, and Glassman all provide excellent offensive upside for where they were drafted.
Team Questions: While Team Applebaum’s outfield defense is very sound, I suspect that the infield may have a few more problems. While Jessie Cytryn is undebiably a great player, his missed games (5) will definitely affect the team’s win/loss record.
Best Draft Pick: As mentioned before, Applebaum got very good value during the second half of the draft. Out of this group, I think Ricky Marter will end up helping the team the most.
Prediction: 9-13
Team Granese
What’s To Like: This team packs a great 1-2 punch with Granese/Pargament. Paul Ritchie is a wild card, like any rookie, but has a decent chance of giving this team a trio of players that is tough to navigate through the lineup without giving up some runs. With Ritchie, Pargament, and Barbesh in the OF, this team will make it tough on teams trying to hit fly balls.
Team Questions: A running theme through this preview will be the impact of missed games. The noteworthy missed games list include Pargament(6-7), Marrone(4 not including 1 playoff game), and Zimmerman(6 not including 1 playoff game). The bottom of this lineup might be particularly weak since they had to use a 12th round pick on a player who usually goes in the 13th in addition to a rookie drafted in the 11th. Once again, rookies may succeed but I always expect there to be an adjustment period.
Best Draft Pick: Jeff Turtz it a great hitter for the 9th round. He’ll give this team a much needed boost, especially for the games when Pargament misses.
Prediction: 8-14
NL East
Team Jacoby
What’s To Like: Just like Pollock’s first two rounds last year, Jacoby was able to get a perennial MVP candidate despite not having the first selection and then get one of the most consistently great hitters, Brock Hor, in the second round. This formula worked well with our team last year, so the same may be true for another rookie captain this year.
Team Questions: I’m usually wary of taking rookies, and Team Jacoby has more first year players than any other team this year. There is usually an adjustment period needed for players coming into the league, and if they all stumble out of the gate then offense can be a problem.
Best Draft Pick: That being said about rookies, the Fradkin pick can end up being the best in the draft. Ed is by far the best offensive player in the league, and after seeing Mike’s tryout, I wouldn’t be surprised if they both end up playing like first rounders.
Prediction- 10-12
Team Schefkind
What’s To Like: This is a very well-balanced team that should have a lot of intensity. There’s not one bad pick in the bunch and a few players can catapult this team to one of the elite if they have the seasons they are capable of having.
Team Questions: I’m not sure who the shortstop is going to be, but it doesn’t seem like there is a proven answer yet.
Best Draft Pick: Malayz hit close to .600 as a rookie and can prove himself to be worthy of a first round pick with a similar season this year. It was only 2 years ago that Mark Persily hit .597. If he can find that stroke again then he’ll be one of the league’s biggest steal as an 8th rounder.
Prediction- 13-9
Team Applebaum
What’s To Like: Last year Team Applebaum won only five games so this squad should be better almost by default. Their outfield defense should be very strong and the bottom half of this lineup can match up with anybody else’s. Marter, Gershman, and Glassman all provide excellent offensive upside for where they were drafted.
Team Questions: While Team Applebaum’s outfield defense is very sound, I suspect that the infield may have a few more problems. While Jessie Cytryn is undebiably a great player, his missed games (5) will definitely affect the team’s win/loss record.
Best Draft Pick: As mentioned before, Applebaum got very good value during the second half of the draft. Out of this group, I think Ricky Marter will end up helping the team the most.
Prediction: 9-13
Team Granese
What’s To Like: This team packs a great 1-2 punch with Granese/Pargament. Paul Ritchie is a wild card, like any rookie, but has a decent chance of giving this team a trio of players that is tough to navigate through the lineup without giving up some runs. With Ritchie, Pargament, and Barbesh in the OF, this team will make it tough on teams trying to hit fly balls.
Team Questions: A running theme through this preview will be the impact of missed games. The noteworthy missed games list include Pargament(6-7), Marrone(4 not including 1 playoff game), and Zimmerman(6 not including 1 playoff game). The bottom of this lineup might be particularly weak since they had to use a 12th round pick on a player who usually goes in the 13th in addition to a rookie drafted in the 11th. Once again, rookies may succeed but I always expect there to be an adjustment period.
Best Draft Pick: Jeff Turtz it a great hitter for the 9th round. He’ll give this team a much needed boost, especially for the games when Pargament misses.
Prediction: 8-14
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