Wednesday Night Preview

Carlin vs. Granese- Here are two teams still looking to jump start their seasons. With expecations so high before the season, Carlin has to classify as this year’s biggest disappointment so far. That is not to say they can’t turn it around. With a nucleus this strong, and a manager who won’t let the team throw in the towel,  a winning streak can be right around the corner. Meanwhile, Team Granese is a little better than their 1-5 record indicates. Sure their one win was a 2 run victory vs. the #16 on my power rankings, but they’ve had tough one run losses against the 6-1 Team Applebaum  and the very strong Team Feldman. Still, I have to think Team Carlin is going to pull this one out and begin their much delayed march to excellence.

Predicted Winner: Carlin

Beilis vs. Younger- I couldn’t have been more wrong about Team Younger. Every year there is a team that wins because it plays very solid defense even if their offense isn’t scary. This year the team’s best defensive team(by a considerable margin) also boasts an offense that  is third in the league in runs scored. Team Beilis, however, is at the other end of the spectrum as they have the second lowest runs scored per game in the league. Union Hill has a habit of making an average offense look good, but this looks like it’s going to be to tall of a challenge for the Defending NL champs.

Predicted Winner: Younger

Power Rankings Update

Here's an abbreviated version of the power rankings for this week.

1. Applebaum (1)
2. Younger (2)
3. Feldman (3)
4. Lapine (5)
5. Harris (4)
6. Pollock (7)
7. Sarcona (6)
8. Carlin (12)
9. Wallman (10)
10. Randell (8)
11. Mamone (9)
12. Schefkind (16)
13. Granese (14)
14. Jacoby (15)
15. Beilis (11)
16. Goldfarb (13)

Game Pedictions- Week 5

Main Electric (Applebaum) v Paco's (Granese)- While I don’t think Applebaum will be the most dominant team all year, I think they’ll stay undefeated for another week.

Nonna's (Lapine) v Massage Envy (Sarcona)- The two teams that beat our team, so I have great respect for both. This should be a close contest, but I give the edge to Lapine.

Arrow (Beilis) v Express Imprints (Pollock)- For whatever reason, I only realized now that this is a rematch of our finals matchup. I’m sure Beilis wishes all our games are played at the Middle School instead of Union Hill.

Jiffy Lube (Feldman) v Bagel World (Goldfarb)- An upset here wouldn’t shock me, but I expect Feldman to rebound from a tough loss and regain their claim as perhaps the league’s best team.

Ace Aluminum (Wallman) v Elite (Mamone)- Municipal should play to Wallman’s strength, but I think Team Mamone is due for a big victory.

Pizza/Pasta (Carlin) v CK Baseball (Harris)- The one week I don’t pick Carlin will surely be the week they win. Harris has been very impressive after a sloppy first week.

Fradkin Law (Jacoby) v Tuscanyrose (Schef)- Two teams in desperate need for a win, but when in doubt, I go with Fradkin at Union Hill.

Sports Zone (Randell) v LawCash (Younger)- Randell has a lot of guys who thrive on U.H. Younger’s been playing well, but I think they run into some trouble here.

Power Rankings #3

Last week was not a good week for teams atop the power rankings. As a result, there is a lot of movement on this week’s list. We’re still so early in the season, and it’s hard to tell if a good performance is really a sign of great weeks to come, of if it’s an aberration. Like I said last week, I’m always basing these rankings on both performance (record, run differential, recent streaks) and how I think a team might perform in the future. But after getting a few mentions in the game summaries this week, I’m feeling the pressure to put together a ranking that somewhat reflects what’s going to happen on the field!

Rankings (Last week’s rankings are in parentheses):

1. Applebaum (4)- While I may not think they’re the best in the league, respect has to be given to the last remaining undefeated team. As long as you keep on winning, the spot is yours.

2. Younger (5)- Now’s a good time to mention just how hard it is to organize this group of teams. I had questions before the year how this team would do with so many players who usually play the infield. Having a 4.5 runs against average certainly answers that question. Even if they weren’t scoring runs, they’d be in great shape with a defense this solid. Add the fact that Younger is 4^th in runs scored, and you have a team who is proving themselves to be no fluke. That being said, they might be in trouble playing Randell this week- a great Union Hill team.

3. Feldman (1)- It’s hard to respond too negatively to an 11 inning loss at the hands of another undefeated team. There’s no reason to think any less of Team Feldman this week.

4. Harris (7)- Last week’s win against a Mamone team looking to get back on track was impressive. It looks like the 20 runs given up the first week was just a blip.

5.Lapine (3)- The Beilis loss was surprising, but I’ll give Lapine a pass this week. Especially since it’s coming off a thrilling 13 inning victory against Team Pollock. Speaking of . . .

6. Sarcona (9)- They may still have a negative run differential, but what I saw this Sunday was pretty impressive. A big matchup against Lapine this week will help separate two teams who I think are very equally matched.

7. Pollock (2)- As great as our offense is, our defense needs improve a little before we move back up the rankings. Captain Pollock has a few defensive tricks up his sleeve that will go into effect this Sunday. Let’s also not forget that the two losses were heartbreaking extra inning affairs.

8. Randell(11)- The team is 2-2 and Joel is nowhere to be found on the leaderboard yet. He’ll eventually heat up, and so will this team.

9. Mamone (6)- Alright, one more week of giving your team the benefit of the doubt. I still believe they’re much better than the 1-3 record shows. This week they have a tough game at Municipal against a Wallman team that is built for that field. Both teams  will feel like they badly need the win.

10 Wallman (12)- Many will attribute this team’s early struggles to the lack of power. Detractors will say this is proof that you need some homerun hitters to win in this league. The real problem is that they’ve lacked hitting, period. In fact, they have the lowest average in the league. I think they have enough talent to be in the mix for team batting average, and despite their lack of home run hitters they should be able to put some runs on the board. Their defense will always keep them in games.

11. Beilis (15)- Last week’s victory against Mamone was certainly impressive and the first step in proving all prognosticators wrong.  A victory against our team this week will leave it beyong a doubt that Beilis is a team much worthier than a 15^th spot on the power rankings.

12. Carlin (8)- It’s hard to believe that just a month ago they were the top team on this list. I’ll never call a Carlin team down and out, and I still don’t believe that’s the case with this group. They may no longer be the superpower that I thought they’d be, but they can still be a force.

13. Goldfarb(10)- Maybe it’s because it’s still early in the season, but I’m amazed at how even when we’re getting down to the 13^th team on the list, we’re still dealing with teams that are dangerous. Goldfarb is used to putting winners on the field in recent years and with the top defensive SS, great hitters in Ari Mesmer and Rick Schindelheim, and a solid later half of the draft including a hot hitting Dave Mallow, this team should be doing better.

14. Granese (16) As Bob Dylan once said, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows” and the wind must have been blowing out on Municpal as Granese lit up the scoreboard for 12(!) runs on the notoriously stingy wasteland of a field. But more to the point of the quote, it’s obvious that Granese is ready to put those first three weeks behind them and go on a tear. One problem is they’re facing off against the top team in the league this week. A win will most certainly catapult them to a respectable spot on this list as well as guarantee that the author of this section will be quoted again in a most unflattering way.

15. Jacoby (14)- Three words for this week. Fradkin.Union.Hill. There is hope for the rookie captain this week as he squares off against the other basement dwellers of this list.

16. Schefkind(13)- I once had this team 4^th on the power rankings before the season started. I don’t think Schefkind is going to have an utter waste of a season, but as long as they’re going to have one run performances like last Sunday, they’re going to find themselves near the bottom of the list.   

Game Predictions

Quick predictins for this weekend. The team picked to win is in bold.

Nonna's (Lapine) v Arrow (Beilis)

LawCash (Younger) v Tuscanyrose (Schef)

CK Baseball (Harris) v Elite (Mamone)

Sports Zone (Randell) v Fradkin Law (Jacoby)

Bagel World (Goldfarb) v Paco's (Granese)

Pizza/Pasta (Carlin) v Ace Aluminum (Wallman)

Massage Envy (Sarcona) v Express Imprints (Pollock)

Jiffy Lube (Feldman) v Main Electric (Applebaum)

A few notes:

-          I think the Carlin/Wallman matchup is big because it features two teams who I thought would have great seasons. Whichever team loses this game will have an uphill battle if they’re going to compete for division titles.

-          After two weeks of flat performances, Team Jacoby finally put together an impressive nine innings. I’m curious to see if they can keep it going, but I think Randell will pull this one out.

-          Now that Joe Mamone is back, I think his team will star showing they are truly an “Elite” team (Do you like what I did with their team name there? Clever, huh.). Team Harris has been on a roll though, so it won’t be easy.

Power Rankings #2

Let me first say, its so tough to do a power rankings after only three weeks of games. While some teams have made strong statements (both positive and negative), some teams are still weeks away from establishing what to expect from them this season. Because of the potential flukiness involved with a team’s record after three games, there are some other factors I considered as well. One component is missed games. Some teams’ records are misrepresented by key absences. While every team goes through this during the season, there are certain teams who I can’t have low in the rankings just because their 1-2 record was the result of key missed games. The other determining factor at this point in the season is my pre season expectations. It’s too early for me to change my mind on some teams. However, I have to admit that early performances opened my eyes to the likely true nature of certain teams I misjudged. 

The number in parenthesis represents the previous power rankings position. My rule is that the #1 team will only be at risk of losing its top spot if they lose the current week’s game. So without further ado, here are the current rankings:

1.       Feldman (6)- The Brocks add a special dynamic to this team unlike any Feldman team has had in recent memory.  So far they’re the best balanced team in the league.

2.       Pollock (2)- I know some will think this is a bit biased, but consider that our one loss this year was a 13- inning game at Union Hill in which we were missing Adam Greenspan. So far the top 4 in the lineup are batting a combined .712 with a slugging percentage of 1.068.

3.       Lapine (7) - A pre-season sleeper pick that is really gelling right now.  What’s scary is that they’ve done this well without Lipomi getting hot yet(and he will).

4.       Applebaum (13)- Part one of two teams I potentially underestimated before the season. Jesse Cytryn is  plsying lights out(as usual) and has carried this team to one of three remaining 3-0 records.

5.       Younger (16)- A potential big oops on my part. In a season where offense has reigned supreme so far, Team Younger is averaging just 5.7 runs against. The key question is will they be able to keep up the torrid pace?

6.       Mamone (5)- This is the main reason I brought up the consideration of players missing games when doing the rankings. No way should Mamone be lumped in with the other 1-2 teams. Once Mamone comes back from his honeymoon to begin his life sentence in prison (aka marriage)then this team should start rolling again.

7.       Harris (12)- This team has bounced back very nicely from a lackluster first week. Chris Newman is becoming a star in the league and should help this offense be one of the steadiest all season.

8.       Carlin (1) -  I’m not ready to give up on Team Carlin, but I am beginning to think my 16 win season may be just  a tad bit off. The big three can only come to plate so many times in a game. Others will have to step up if this team is going to reach its lofty expectations.

9.       Sarcona (11)- I should walk on eggshells talking about my team’s opponent this weekend. They’re also known as the “For the love of God, do NOT hit it to their SS” team.

10.   Goldfarb (9)- I’m not used to seeing a Goldfarb team giving up an average of 11.7 runs. They’re averaging 10 runs a game now, but I feel that number will go down during the course of the season.

11.    Randell (8)- Like Team Carlin, This team will only get so far with its triad of offensive stars.  Others will have to step up and so far guys like Wayne Sherman has certainly handled that. Despite their 1-2 record, they’ve scored more runs than have given up in the early going. Defense is going to be an issue all year long and true to form, their 14.3 runs against is the worst in the league.

12.   Wallman (3)- Statistically speaking, Wallman is one of the worst in the league. The lesson learned here is that if you build a team full of singles hitters without any sluggers, then the contact hitters have to all rise to the occasion. Their 5.3 runs per game is significantly lower than any other team’s. Yet I still have some confidence that the team will wake up a bit. They might not meet my early prediction of 13-9, but I do think they can make it to .500.

13.   Schefkind(4)- Another pre-season favorite of mine off to a bad start. Unlike Wallman, I’m a bit less optimistic about their long term success.

14.   Jacoby (10)- A big win last Sunday helped partly salvage a pretty bad start for Team Jacoby. They weren’t competitive for the first two weeks, so could it be that the new guys just needed to warm up? I doubt that last week’s victory will be the catalyst for a long winning streak, but we’ll see.

15.   Beilis (15)- I keep coming back to the fact that the last three times Beilis had a record .500 or worse, they made the finals. That’s the best thing going for them right now.

16.   Granese (14)- As Bob Dylan once sang, “When something’s not right, it’s wrong” and certainly something’s just not right on Team Grenese. After only scoring two runs last Sunday, they go to Municipal for their next game. It might be going from bad to worse.