Week 15 Rankings

Week 15 Power Rankings:
There comes a time each season where it becomes pretty easy to divide teams into four groups:

The clear contenders
The teams who can join the elite group if they become just a little more consistent
The teams who may flash he occasional moments of promise but are mostly below average
The Teams who seem destined for a first round exit.

This year, the middle two categories are combining to form one giant group of average teams.
Here’s a stat the best illustrates the mediocrity thus far. Last year there were four teams that ended
with a run differential between -1.1 runs and 1.1 runs per game. This year there are NINE teams that fit
that criterion.

Teams that once looked destined for bad seasons are now in the middle of the pack (Granese, Harris,
Lapine) while some teams who once looked like clear elite teams have shown more inconsistency than
expected (Beilis, Goldfarb). At this point in the season, it’s hard to imagine teams moving into another
category, but there might be some big jumps within that middle group. There’s not a huge gap between
a team ranked #7 or 8 from a team ranked 12 or 13. The only possibility is if Team Carlin’s losing streak
continues and another team, most likely Beilis or Goldfarb catch fire.



This Week's Rankings:

The Elite:

1. Wallman (2)
2. Jacoby (3)
3. Applebaum (1)
4. Carlin (4)

The Almost Everybody Else Group

5. Goldfarb (6)
6. Beilis (5)
7. Granese (8)
8. Harris (12)
9. Bykofsky (10)
10. Randell (7)
11. Feldman (13)
12. Lapine (11)
13. Younger (9)

The “I Don’t Want To Say Anything Too Negative Because I’m On Team #15” Group

14. Marrone (14)
15. Pollock (15)
16. Mamone (16)

Week 14 Predictions

Feldman vs. Beilis

Applebaum vs. Wallman

Randell vs. Lapine

Harris vs. Carlin

Jacoby vs. Younger

Pollock vs. Goldfarb

Granese vs. Marrone

Mamone vs. Bykofsky

In what’s clearly the #1 game of the week, the top two teams on the power rankings face off at 10:00 at the swim club. In a game that’s all about momentum, I expect Wallman to knock off the top rated Applebaum. If Team Applebaum should prove victorious then they will improve to 7-0 vs. American League teams. It’s possible that Applebaum can have a season in which they beat every team in the league. They’d have to go a perfect 8-0 vs. the AL and then exact revenge on the three teams NL teams who beat them thus far. It's something worth keeping an eye on.

Week 14 Power Rankings

Week 14 Power Rankings:

·        Applebaum’s lead is tenuous right now. With several teams on their trail, I doubt they’ll be able to hold onto the top spot the whole way through.

·        If I could put a tie for #9-13, I would. The final decision was based heavily by asking myself “If I had to play each time at full strength, who would be the most dangerous?” And that’s no slight to Team Feldman listed at #13. The placing may seem low, but for a team who is ranked ahead of only 3 other teams, I think they can still be tough to beat.

·        There is a HUGE dropoff after #13. Huge, huge, huge. Very big. Gigantic. It does not give me pleasure to say this considering my team is at #15. Horrible.

This Week’s Rankings:

1. Applebaum (1)
2. Wallman (3)
3. Jacoby (4)
4. Carlin (2)
5. Beilis (5)
6. Goldfarb (7)
7. Randell (10)
8. Granese (12)
9. Younger (8)
10. Bykofsky (6)
11. Lapine (11)
12. Harris (13)
13. Feldman (9)
14. Marrone (14)
15. Pollock (15)
16. Mamone (16)

Week 13 Predictions

 Predicted Winners are in bold:

Younger vs. Applebaum

Mamone vs. Goldfarb

Lapine vs. Pollock

Granese vs. Bykofsky

Randell vs. Marrone

Jacoby vs. Carlin

Feldman vs. Wallman

Harris vs. Beilis

A Few Highlights:

·        Younger beating Applebaum is my upset pick of the week. Usually when an elite team loses their first game in a long time, the losses come in pairs or bunches. I think Team Applebaum may hit a brief rough patch before regaining their mojo.

·        Bykofsky has lost a couple of tough games in a row, so they need a win in order to maintain a positive team energy. Believe me, I know what it’s like to lose a couple of “How Did This Happen?” games in a row. For this kind of experience to be an aberration instead of the norm, Bykofsky needs to come back strong today.

·        Jacoby vs. Carlin is clearly the main even of the week. When Jacoby started 8-0, they had a few detractors. Now is the time to make their statement. On the flip side, Team Carlin has quietly built the best record and best run differential in the league. Advantage: Carlin

Selecting The YITS Team

 Introduction by Mitch Pollock:

It may not be billed as an all-star game, but there’s no question that the Over/Under 35 game is an exhibition game that players on both sides want to win. And with the amount of talent included, let’s face it: It’s an all-star game. Selecting the rosters for this game is the hardest task in the league. Captains of the all-star game do not have to choose their players, but Sean Vader and Mike Paladino had to comb through the league’s elite and make some touch decisions. You’ll notice some awfully good players left off of these teams, but at the same time there isn’t a player who made the final cut who doesn’t belong.

So what goes through the mind of a captain making such hard roster decisions? Mike Paladino has been gracious enough to share his thorough thought process with the league. It is clear Mike is playing to win- as it should be. Like all other blog content, it is clear that this is all written in a good-natured tone.

Selecting the YITS Team:

By Mike Paladino

Welcome to the 35 & over Old Man Team!  Otherwise known as the YITS.  So this was written in true YITS fashion, at least from an Italian perspective...and because I'm an analyst by nature and by living.  You'll see below how I'm looking to handle the game on Sunday night...please let me know if there are any late cancellations or if anyone is hurt.

I was honored to be asked to captain a team of studs - you can't really go wrong when putting a team like this together.  Or so I thought until the Marlboro Softball peanut gallery started chiming in.  I get along with everybody I've ever played with and against in this league (except for one incident last year when a guy spiked me), so it was really difficult be the guy to make these calls.  But someone had to do this and I tried to be extremely objective (that's also a requirement in my day job).

So in the spirit of giving the league what keeps it vibrant (chatter and yapping at Bagel Talk and along UH fences, and electronic content for blogs and cyberspace), I outlined how I went about picking the team...and how the decisions came to be because I'm tired of answering the "why didn't you pick this guy" questions.

When I thought about how to put this team together, I started with a few principles.  I believe you have to prove it/earn it every year and you should be rewarded, so performance up to selection time was a factor (not the only factor).  But it's also not an all-star game, so we had to build a team, not necessarily pick the players that would be drafted the highest or have best stats, though obviously there is a correlation.

The reason we lost last year was simple - we didn't hit and didn't score.  Yes, this is definitely a fun game, but I also wanna f'n win.  Everyone tells me we're underdogs, but F the peanut gallery...let's show the Young Guns that the vet All Stars still have a pretty full tank.

In a game like this, it is much easier to build a good defensive team on both Over/Under, which means offense is much tougher to come by.  So a main theme was that I wanted excellent defense, but not excess defense.  Also, the fact we're playing at UH was a definitely a factor in picking this team...it would have been different if we played at a different fenceless field (maybe we do that at some point in the future?).  With such strong D, I believe we need to increase our chances to score where they can't play defense, so that influenced the roster.

This led me to pick the team in 4 buckets of players and means we won't rotate players as much as if I picked more guys valued for their glove as much or more than their bat.

I have not yet made up the lineup.

Pitchers - wanted 2

Decision #1 was determining that to give us the best chance to beat the Young Guns, we would benefit from 2 pitchers so that they won't see the same P every time up.  When you have 2 awesome Ps like Joey K & Clamp that also provide the type of offense they do, this was my easiest and first decision...every other decision followed this.  I'll talk to these two separately and manage how we're going to rotate.

Dual-threat IFs - wanted 4 for 3 positions

SS - Gluck

3B - Granese

2B - Paladino

Rotate in - Younger

Defensive gameplan: I will manage this rotation during the game.  Starters will get majority of innings and finish a close game, JY will mix in at 2B/3B, Matt and I may get an inning or two at SS.

Others in mix:  D Kay, Barlow

Comment:  This was the toughest bucket to call.  Noel was the only no-brainer.  It became complicated by the fact that the other top fielding SSs (me, Granese, and DK) are all having ok but not great offensive seasons, while solid defensive options (Younger, Barlow) are hitting the shit out of the ball.  Decided we couldn't afford to not have 3 SS gloves and couldn't afford to not have 1 of the better offensive options, so I picked those that were having the better offensive seasons...me and Granese over DK and Younger over Barlow.

Dual-threat OFs - wanted 5 for 4 positions

LF - Panassidi 

LCF - Zaretsky 

RCF - Roland

RF - Spoto

Rotate in - Golden

Defensive gameplan:  I'm asking JZ to manage the OF rotation during game depending on situation and who's coming up for them.

Others in mix:  Schef, Murphy

Comment:  This group gets much deeper next year when Callow and Goldstein hit the Over threshold, if the website is correct.  JZ is the only no- brainer here.  Roland is pretty close to it due to consistency and so is Golden at this field due to UH power.  Spoto was my one sight unseen pick, relying on Callow's scouting report and the numbers he's putting up this yr...and after seeing him play last weekend vs Feldman, I'm confident this was the right call.  He's going to be drafted probably a mid-2 next year.  So this call was ultimately Spoto and KP over Schef and Murphy.  Very tough call here...familiarity played a role with KP...played with him on a semifinal team w Beilis and never played w Schef or Murphy, so less well known to me.

Pure Hitters C/1B - wanted the best 4 with no regard for position, UH threat and 1B experience a plus

1B - Greenspan 

C - Applebaum

Rotate in - Schindleheim

Rotate in - Hor 

Others in mix:  The "Others" noted above...and Newman, Lenny, Dell'Alba, Ronnie C, Donnie, Bobby B, AP

Defensive gameplan:  I'm going to ask Apples to manage the 1B/C defensive rotation during the game.  Adam/Apples, talk to JZ during game for an inning in the OF, I'll look to get Brock an inning at 3B, and we'll probably keep Rick at these 2 positions.

Comment:  This is where the excellent, but not excess theme comes in.  You guys were selected purely for your potent offense and/or UH power threat...and that's not meant to show any disrespect to your gloves, which are still very good.  But in a game like this, we're generally going to have better options at your normal positions.  I also wanted Newman b/c he actually plays 1B and is a strong UH threat.  Essentially, the call was that we need Adam and Brock for their UH power and great offense...and Apples and Rick could be the best pure hitters in the league.

FINAL NOTE - I think it's clear that I believe Apples and Younger should probably be rated mid-2s next year, with Brock as a good comp.

Week 13 Power Rankings

There are no big shakeups this week, only minor changes:

1. Applebaum (1)
2. Carlin (2)
3. Wallman (3)
4. Jacoby (4)
5. Beilis (5)
6. Bykofsky (6)
7. Goldfarb (7)
8. Younger (9)
9. Feldman (11)
10. Randell (8)
11. Lapine (10)
12. Granese (12)
13. Harris (13)
14. Marrone (14)
15. Pollock (15)
16. Mamone (16)

Week 12 predictions

 Predicted Winners are in bold:

Carlin vs. Randell

What’s At Stake: At various points in the season I’ve heard Jacoby, Wallman, Beilis been described as the best team in the league but I’ve never heard the same said about Carlin. At 10-3, this team shouldn’t have to do anything to prove they belong in the discussion, but defeating a suddenly hot Team Randell will end any speculation once and for all. The amazing part about Randell’s recent streak is not all of their top players are performing as well as we’ve expected. And yet they are only 1.5 games behind the once invincible Team Jacoby.

Bykofsky vs. Jacoby

Do you remember how the Yankees made all those bad free agent moves for starting pitching because they failed to see how pitching in the NL is so much easier than pitching in the AL(Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, etc.)? Well that’s like comparing teams in the NL vs. the AL this year. If Team Jacoby was playing in the other league, they would probably be just in the middle of the pack. I bought into their 8-0 start also. It’s not like I thought they’d go undefeated, but I didn’t immediately realize their incredible record was almost solely due to the fact they hadn’t played AL teams yet. Team Bykfosky very well could be Jacoby’s equal despite not getting nearly as much respect. It might be hard for them to overtake Carlin, Beilis, and Wallman but this week should prove that they’re just as good, if not better, than any National League team with the exception of Applebaum.

And quick analysis for the rest of the games:

Wallman vs. Mamone:

Wallman’s got their groove back. A loss here would be the upset of the week.

Younger vs. Pollock:

A horrible season has turned even more miserable after season ending injuries to Darren Freeman and Matt Pollock. The eternal optimist in me still sees signs that we can turn it around, but the evidence so far shows we have as long climb to respectability. Playing an undermanned Younger squad could be a good start.

Marrone vs. Applebaum:

Yes, I expect Applebaum’s dominance to continue. I never count out Marrone with all that offense though.

Lapine vs. Feldman

This is the toughest game on the board. I just don’t know what to make of Team Lapine.

Goldfarb vs. Harris

Team Goldfarb can hang with any team in this league. They’re a 9-4 team living in a 7-6 disguised as a 7-6 team right now. This is the week they turn it around.

Beilis vs. Granese

5 out of the 8 games last week were decided by 9 or more runs. The oppressive heat had everything to do with it. When a bad team goes down early in weather like that, it’s very hard to fight back. I think we’re looking at similar situations this week as all including this one.

Week 12 Power Rankings

The gap is closing. As we're now at the mid-year mark, there is quite a bit of movement near the top of the rankings. Early season powerhouse, Team Jacoby, has run into some trouble when facing the American League. Meanwhile, while some thought Team Carlin's early success was a little fluskish (ok, maybe it was just me), they're proving time and time again that they belong in the discussion of best team in the league. And although their power ranking didn't change this week, watch out for Bykofsky. If they can beat a suddenly vulnerable Team Jacoby then they'll be joining that top 5 very soon.

And then there are the teams that at one point or another made convincing arguments for inclusion near the top. I'm talking about Beilis, Goldfarb, and even Younger to an extent. Any one of these teams can catch fire and disrupt the current group at the top.

Week 12 Rankings. Previous week's rankings are in ():

1. Applebaum (1)
2. Carlin (4)
3. Wallman (5)
4. Jacoby (2)
5. Beilis (3)
6. Bykofsky (6)
7. Goldfarb (7)
8. Randell (9)
9. Younger (8)
10. Lapine (10)
11. Feldman (11)
12. Granese (12)
13. Harris (15)
14. Marrone (13)
15. Pollock (14)
16. Mamone (16)