Final 2021 Power Rankings and Playoff Preview

Here are Final power rankings and playoff predictions.

Usually this would be two separate articles, but life's been busy, especially without the week off before playoffs.

Final Power Rankings:

1. Larocca
2. Wallman
3. Conti
4. Goddard
5. Pollock
6. Dimarco
7. Pingaro
8. Seidenberg
9. Lombardi
10. Kessler

 

Goddard may be 12-10 overall, but they are 11-3 in last 14 games. Plus they lost each of their first three games by one run.

Since getting shut out by Pingaro in game 3, Larocca has gone 15-4.

Kessler and Lorocca are the only two teams to lost two games in a row only one time this year. Wallman also only had one losing streak, but it was three games. 

This is the third year in a row Team Pollock has finished with the best runs against average. This is 5 years in a row we have finished in top 2. People who have been in the league for awhile might remember us known for drafting strong offense/ so-so defensive teams. Times have changed!

Playoff Predictions:

There are three common factors that most championship teams have had in common since 2010. Some of this data is a matter of coincidence but it's fun to look at and if this year follows the usual trend, we can narrow the potential champions to only a few teams:

 

Factor #1: Championship teams tend to finish in the top half of the runs scored category:

 10 out of 11 winning teams have finished in the top half. The 2018 Applebaum team is the only exception(They actually finished last in runs scored).

 Here are the teams that finished in the top 9 in runs scored:

 Dimarco, Conti, Wallman, Seidenberg, Larocca, Goldfarb, Goddard, Kessler, Marrone 

 

Predictably, this list includes most of the teams that are atop the power rankings. The most notable exceptions are my own and Pingaro.

 In case you are wondering about defense, 7 out of 11 champion championship teams finished in the top half of runs against. That’s more than half the championship teams but not as impressive as the runs scored number.

           

Factor #2:No rookies drafted in the first three rounds.

 The last time a championship team won with a rookie as one of their first three picks was way back in 2010 when Lapine won with Polzer as their third round pick. With the constant influx of great talent, I except there to be more exceptions to this rule in the future but for now, it is a championship criteria.

 Most teams fit this criteria, so it is easier to list the teams that do not:

 Marrone, Pingaro, Goddard, Larocca

 Hell of a season, Larocca. But stats are stats and you have a top rookie.

Goddard and Marrone are two other teams that passed the first criterion but not the second. This means we have six teams unscathed going into #3.

Factor #3: NO TEAM THAT HAS WON THE CHAMPIONSHIP WHEN ENTERING  PLAYOFFS ON A WINNING STREAK.

 Caps are annoying but that stat is amazing. Every championship team since 2010 has either lost their last or penultimate regular season game.Championship teams are only 3-8 in their last regular season games.

 Teams who enter the playoffs  on winning streak:

Wallman, Conti, Goddard, Pollock, Polzer

 

Sure the stat can be just a coincidence but I think there is something to be said for the psychological hit that losing a playoff game can have on a team that’s been on a roll. All it takes is one loss to put you on the verge of elimination. The team that wins the championship is the team that can bounce back quickly.

 

Teams that have survived the first three key criteria:

 Dimarco, Seidenberg, Goldfarb, Kessler

 So which one of the four is my pick to win the championship? Each team has something to like.

 Goldfarb was getting hot a few weeks ago and has potent lineup. They have a tough first round matchup though in Wallman.

 There were times this year where Seidenberg looked like the best team in the league. They still have the potential to cause damage but sometimes losing their captain could be a dynamic changer that hurts.

 Kessler- I like that they’ve never slumped. The biggest problem is they’ve had trouble scoring runs. They scored single digits in each of their last seven games. That’s the second longest streak by any team all season.

 That leaves my pick to win it all based on the criteria…..Team Dimarco

 

Dimarco is 8-3 this year when everyone is there. They’ve had only four games this year when they’ve scored in the single digits, by far the fewest  this year(the next lowest team total is 8). This kind of consistency is needed in the playoffs.

 So while teams like Larocca and Wallman are rightfully getting the attention for being favorites to win the championship, watch out for Dimarco.

 

Updated Power Rankings

 Here is the "It's really too early to this" updated power rankings of the year. The two rules that apply to my power rankings will stay intact. 

• No team under .500 can appear on the official rankings.

• This becomes less of an issue later in the season when a team that is 6-7 can't really be disappointed they're not being talked about as a top team. It becomes more of a gray area now when one game is the difference between a .333 winning percentage and a .667 winning percentage. Still, rules are rules.

• Teams that are undefeated will always be ranked at the top, regardless of how I feel about their long term prospects.

• If you haven't lost a game yet then you deserve all the credit and benefit of doubt until your first loss.

So far, the standings are dominated by teams who got little respect in the Pre-Season Captains Poll. Out of the six teams that are above .500, only one (Seidenberg) made the top 10 in the poll. In fact,  the 10 teams that made the Captains' Poll are a combined 18-26. The 8 teams that did not receive enough votes are 18-10.

Only time will tell if this is a fluke or whether this is the year of the underdog. 

Before I begin with the rankings, here's the paragraph I wrote about Steinberg and then had to delete after Wednesday's loss dropped them to 2-3:

This is clearly an example of not over-reacting to a team's record after four games. Both of Steinberg's losses were by one run. This is where the benefit of drafting a majority of a championship team will come into play. Noone is going to get down on the team or second guess their chances at success. Losing these close games might end up being the difference between Steinberg going 16-6 and 14-8, but ultimately I think they're set up for a long playoff run. 

Editor's note: Ok, so Wednesday's loss was bad. It was reminiscent of when our team mercied them on a Wednesday night at Municipal last season. That seemed to be their wakeup call last year. Perhaps this loss will serve a similar purpose. 

Power Rankings:

11. Kessler- earned this spot by beating the champs.two of those losses were rough though so verdict is still out.

10. Dimarco- I didn’t have to dig deep for this stat: Dimarco is 2-0 against pitchers who are cowboys. They’re 0-2 against non-cowboys. DiMarco’s the only team to score double digits and give up double digits every game.

9. Larocca- You don't get anymore Jekyll and Hyde outings like the one Larocca had over the last two games. Last win came against a much short-handed Drashinky squad. 

8. Pollock- ANother Jeckyll and Hyde team. Our team scored 19 runs our last game after scoring a total of 11 in the first three games. With our strong defense, I like our chances if we can just score 9 runs a game. 

7. Wallman- Preseason heavy favorites(in some eyes) have already had to deal with challenges. While last year the problems came from within(How should the defense be aligned?) this year's challenge was out of their control, Clamp's health. I'm hoping Dave is 100% soon.

6. Polzer- A lot of credit to Polzer winning the first game of managerial career against the defending champs. It's hard for me to gauge where this team will be by the end of the season, but I like that they have beaten tough teams, especially a UH bult Dimarco club on UH. I didn't think Polzer's team would play great defense but so far they're in the middle of the pack in Runs Against(10th) while playing 3/4 of their games on the offensively friendly Union Hill fields.

5. Conti- I didn't have Conti ranked in pre-season power rankings but so far it's hard not to be impressed. They're one of two teams not to give up more than 8 runs in any outing, and they're fresh off a 20-2 cubbing, the most lopsided win of this young softball season.

4. Harris- The ideal formula to a winning team is having a defense that doesn't give extra outs in the field, baserunners that don't give extra outs on the bases, and a player or two who outperform their selected rounds. What I love about the first four picks of Callow, Bykofsky, Gluck, Schefkind is that they were smart players. There might be others who put up bigger stats in those rounds, but these players will have to make you earn those runs. As for having a player who will outperform round value, rookie sensation Wagreich looks well on his way to establishing himself as a first four round player.

3. Lombardi- This is not the first time Lombardi started the season undefeated after the first three or four games. Last time the losses piled on quickly, so time will tell if one of the biggest early season surprise teams will suffer a similar fate. Similar to what I said about Wagreich, the early returns on Jason Young have been great and indicate he's much better than where he was drafted.

2. Pingaro- Pingaro knew. They weren't mentioned in the Captains' Poll or my pre-season power rankings. They were given a 9-13 prediction, second lowest of all teams. Pingaro had to hear many times "You took Ortiz too early", but he knew he had a star on his team. Of course a 4-0 start means more than just one person is contributing, but if there's one storyline that captures why this team is proving naysayers wrong, it's the emergence of AJ Ortiz as a force in this league.

1. Seidenberg- We all knew they could hit, and their 13.3 runs per game is second best in the league. Time will tell whether the 6.3 runs against is a fluke, but if Fradkin continues to throw strikes then this team will go from being one of the best to being THE team to beat. Best wishes to Darren Kay. Hope to see you on the field soon.

2021 Pre-Season Power Rankings

Here are the first power rankings of the season. Like I’ve done recently, I’m only going to rank the top half of the league. The next power rankings will be published right before the first Wednesday night games, May 5th. 

9. Harris- I was between several teams for the final spot in the top 9. Lapine has gotten a lot of early praise, but I think their defense is going to set them back. Early scrimmage buzz is that Conti can be a team to watch, but I want to see some positive results first before I change my original thinking that they’re going to come up short offensively. The team I keep coming back to is Harris, who also gets my award for Most Overly Criticized Write Up. They check off many key boxes. Great outfielders in Callow and Bykofsky, strong shortstop in Gluck, solid vetran pitching with Mike Seidel. Scoring can be an issue, but the veteran presence and solid defense should keep them in games. 

8. Goldfarb- When was the last time Goldfarb went through the first five rounds without drafting a “young stud”? Alex proved last year he can hold his own at short and with one of the best pitchers in the league(Drapkin) and one of the best LCF(Peragine), they have a solid core at the three key positions. Last year, Goldfarb’s lack of offense was a problem foreseen as soon as the draft ended, but picks like Dinapoli, Corde, and Pargament will help ensure a repeat of 2020 won’t happen. I think Joe Pargament will take a big step in his development as a star in the league, and the Grants help give the team a spark that all great teams need. I like this team more than their draft recap and captains poll, but the 12-10 predicted record could become reality as a result of being in such a tough division.

7. Ferrarese- I look at this team and see a bunch of guys I’d love to play on the same team with plus Mike Ferrarese. The first three picks(Sandler, Juska, Rosenthal) are three guys who have made a big impact in the league and yet haven’t reached their potential yet. Chase won MVP yet I think he’ll continue to improve defensively. Juska has rightfully established as the DJ Lemahieu of the league- a hit machine who can play any position on the infield at an elite level- and yet he didn’t even hit .500 last season(Side note: Now that the Yankees have resigned him to a long contract, I have to learn how to spell Lemahieu’s name without resorting to google). And Evan Rosenthal is young enough to increase his power numbers as he enters his third season.  Add Hor, Loconte, Applebaum, Thomas, Sherman to the mix and this could be the deepest lineup in the league. I think they’re one player short defensively, so that might pose a problem. Mike is improving as a pitcher though, and as long as his OF can make the basic plays, they should be fine.

6. Seidenberg- With all due respect to all other rookie captains, Seidenberg had far and away the best draft of any newbie. As Scotty Podcast aptly pointed out, picking last ended up being an advantage. In fact, the last slot in the draft has actually produced two champions since 2010(2010 Lapine and 2018 Applebaum). And while I continue to (rightfully) argue that power is overrated in this league, it does not hurt to have the double UH threats of Fradkin and Seidenberg. Darren Kay will prove to be the make or break player on this team, and if he is even 80% of the defensive player he was when he last played in the league then this will be a tough team to beat all season. I’m sure there will be much analysis on Team Seidenberg throughout the season as the rumor is Scott is devoting 5 minutes of each podcast to a segment called “So what do you think of my team?”.

5. Larocca- Last year it was so easy to write my pre-season power ranking entry for Lorocca’s team. 9 out of 10 of Larocca’s first 10 picks in 2020 were on his 2019 roster. This year, it’s only Frank and the Carlins left from the 2020 team. The biggest change comes at the top, and while it’s not a grand statement to say the first round pick will have a major impact on their team’s success, I think this is true in Frank’s case more than most.  Every year there is so much buzz surrounding a team or a player where their success seems like a given. I remember two years ago it was how dominant Team Brock looked and how we were all playing for second place. Last year it was the arrival of the Blackburns and how they would almost double handedly propel Marrone to the finals. As we can see sometimes what the league deems a given works out and sometimes it doesn’t. This year the pre-season buzz is that Phil Saglietto will be a top 3 hitter in the league. After seeing him the second half of last season and hearing about his fall league exploits, the chatter seems like it will be substantiated. Frank’s team will go as far as Phil’s bat takes them. Elsewhere, Jordan Rosenthal steps up to a third round selection and if he can start hitting for an above .500 average then he and Sag can end up being one the top 2-3 duos in the league. Also, JZ in the fifth round is one of the biggest steals in the draft; I don’t care if he’s first base only. 

4. Pollock- Speaking of people who love talking about their team! What I love most about our club is the defensive flexibility. Any given game we can miss a key defensive player and not have a gaping hole in their spot(OK, so no one can really place Martino but he won’t miss any games: knock on wood). Not having to throw away any games due to missing players will be one factor in having a successful regular season. Besides depth, this team can hit up and down the lineup, led by Valentino, who will likely lead all leadoff hitters in OBP. And while we may not have any hitter “that really scares anyone”, we DO have guys who can put it over the fence in a big spot. The one concern compared to last year is we’re going from Peragine to me in LCF, but I think we’ll average more runs to make up the difference.

3.  Marrone- While my brother and I have a pretty firm rule about not drafting rookies with the top pick, Mike Caputo would have been our choice had Martino not been available. After playing with him in the Fall league, I can confirm he is THAT good. Drafting Amadeo in the second let Marrone get a 1-2 combo that can make up for not getting the Blackburns. The Silverbergs as a 3-4 are a bargain, Difedele is coming off surgery but reports are that he looks great, Dynov is a dynamic defensive player who keeps improving offensively, and Zack Kane started hitting better in the playoffs and will provide a big boost towards the end of their lineup. Bottom line, this team has speed, power, pitching, great defense at key spots. The top three on this list are all close, and I can easily picture Marrone being the #1 team at some point this season.

Softball trivia: Who has appeared in the most semi-finals since 2014? Answer: David Unterweiser(5). 

2. Wallman- The league is split evenly between the captains either in their first or second year having a team and the veterans who are going on three plus years. With all the new blood managing teams, one big storyline will be can Wallman or Marrone, the two longest running captains who haven’t managed a championship team, finally win the trophy. The quick analysis for this year’s Wallman’s team is they are just like last year’s club but with a steady shortstop and all the Manochios. After making defensive changes last year, they went 9-4 the rest of the way. And while some questioned whether team chemistry would be an issue last season, no one is questioning their comradeship this year. If there is a big question mark on this team, it’s whether age will slow down their performance being that they are the oldest club in the league. I don’t see it being an issue. Clamp is one of the biggest difference makers in the  league, Lugos is still one of the top 3 defensive outfielders, Younger is one of the top clutch performers. Plus although I was initially surprised Wallman didn’t move to second base after moving away from SS last year, he’s a very good left fielder. Finally, Tony Rogiers is a self proclaimed MVP candidate. If he makes the leap to the elites then this team will win 15-17 games.

1. Steinberg- Going by the Captains’ Poll results, Team Steinberg enters the season as the most underrated team in the league. What sometimes gets lost in analyzing pre-season rosters are A) The value that a smart captain adds and B) the almost guaranteed successful recipe of bringing back the key players from a championship team. The only three times a championship winning captain brought back seven or more players the following season were 2012 Pollock(17-5) 2014 Jacoby(16-6) and 2018 Pollock(18-4), three obviously successful teams. Bringing back the top four picks is uncharted territory, but I’m almost positive it will add to this winning trend. In fact, this team looks even better than last year’s winning club. The key difference between this team and last year’s winning group is they have an upgrade at pitcher. Also, Feingold is an underrated outfielder, Cotter is an underrated third baseman, and Persily is a very good hitter who gives the lineup nice pop at the bottom. Winning back to back championships is obviously difficult, but Steinberg looks to be in a great position to go deep in the playoffs. 

4th Annual Pre-Season Captain's Poll

 Welcome to the 2021 edition of the Marlboro Softball blog. This year’s edition will look very similar to years past where it is mostly used to update power rankings with some occasional random posts sprinkled throughout.

The first entry is now a yearly tradition, the Captains’ pre-season poll. 

 

To review how this works, I send out an email to all the captains asking them to rank the five best teams in the league. I then award 5 points for the number choice, 4 points for the number 2 choice, etc. If two teams are tied, the team that appears on more ballots wins the tiebreaker. Captains were unable to select their own team on their individual ballots.  This year, 17 out of 18 captains submitted their choices. We’re inching closer to getting every captain to participate.

 

I want to thank all the captains who participated. I have a lot of fun putting the results together, and without the great turnout the results would be incomplete. 

 

Before we get to this season's results, here's a quick breakdown of the previous three seasons:

 

In 2018, Team Goldfarb led a cursed group as the entire top 5 group lost in the first round of the playoffs. (Goldfarb, Marrone, Bykofsky, Brock, Wallman)

 

In 2019, Team Brock dominated the polls thanks to the Turanos steal. Team Brock had 29 points while second place Team Wallman had 9. 

 

In 2020, Team Pollock edged out Team Wallman. Pollock made it to the semi-finals but Wallman bowed out in the second round. This was the first time the eventual champions appeared on the pre-season rankings with Steinberg coming in a modest 9th place.

 

 

Onto the results:

 

Rank Team(# of ballots) Total points

1         Wallman(15) 62

2         Larocca(12) 46

3         Marrone(12) 34

4         Lapine(7) 25

5         Pollock(6) 21

6         Seidenberg(6) 16

7         Steinberg(8) 15

8         Ferrarese(6) 9

9         Kessler(3) 6

10         Goldfarb(2) 6

Just like last year, 2021 is marked by the influx of new captains. 5 new captains in 2021 after 4 new captains debuted in 2020. Similar to the pre-season predictions of last year, the captains predict the season to be dominated by the veterans. Let’s see if any of the new cast of rookie captains can surprise the league the way Steinberg did last year.

 

Let’s also see if Wallman can break the curse of the Pre-Season Favorites.