AL West:
Team Carlin:
What’s To Like: Any discussion of Team Carlin has to start with the Big Three the same way as any talk of the 1927 Yankees starts with Ruth/Gehrig. It has become the great debate of the league: What is the right penalty for a team that comes in with, by the most conservative estimates, two “1s” and a “2”? Most people, including myself, feel the penalty is too light especially by taking a look around the league. Having what is essentially two “13s” isn’t far too different from what many teams already have. I count at least eight teams whose bottom two players either performed like 13s last year or were drafted in the 13th round in 2011. It’s a philosophical argument but I’d always take a team that has three guys who are as good as Brad, Mark, and Ron even if their bottom of the lineup is especially weak.
It is to Ron’s credit as a great captain that the bottom of his lineup isn’t even that week compared to other teams. Anybody who starts and ends their discussion of Team Carlin with their “Big Three” is ignoring how solid the rest of Team Carlin looks to be. Lehman, Freeman, Weinstein all provide solid pop throughout the lineup. This is a team that can hit, field, and pitch as well as any team in the league.
Team Questions: Hmm. Let’s see. . . If you are a contrarian thinker and believe Ron is a .500 hitter then he is due to bat under .300 this year. If Brad Goldstein has the same season this year as he had in 2011 then he’ll have 0 runs and 0 RBI. They’ll also get nothing out of their 4th pick of the draft.
Best Draft Pick: Ron as a three is pretty damn good. Seriously though, if Darren Freeman can have the season he had in 2010 then he’ll be a bargain in the 6th round. Bickoff hits a lot better than any other 13th round pick.
Prediction: 16-6
Team Harris:
What’s To Like: It was very surprising to see the league MVP traded at the draft, but Justin Callow is a first rounder who will most likely improve on his rookie of the year numbers. Kushner has a chance to make an immediate impact at the plate which would give Team Harris a solid heart of the lineup.
Team Questions: I’m always cautious about projecting rookies to succeed in their first year, and this is a team that is not only relying on one to provide a lot of power, but also to handle pitching duties. If things don’t work out, this could be a very tough year for Harris.
Best Draft Pick: I don’t see any true bargains, so if Kastner can prove to be a dominant pitcher this year, he’ll prove to be a very undervalued 8th rounder.
Prediction: 10-12
Team Lapine:
What’s To Like: This team is built around solid defenders. Roland is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league and Phil Lipomi has a chance of being one of the top 2 or 3 shortstops this season. Mike Perloff may miss a bunch of regular season games but besides from an off year in 2011, he’s been one of the most underrated players in the league. But the real key to this team is the man on the mound. You can’t win in this league without pitching and they have one of the best in Drapkin.
Team Questions: While there are solid hitters all over this lineup, this is definitely not a team built for Union Hill. Defense will have to prevail during stretches of the season.
Best Draft Pick: Jordan Krant will hit .500 this season. You heard it here first! I think Perloff is a great player and to avoid picking the last player in the draft by getting Stu Krauss included as a 13 was a very nice move. Phil Lipomi may have gone in the second round, but I have very little doubt he’ll still be there as second round option in 2013.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Sarcona:
What’s To Like: The Preisses are among the biggest winners in the league. Despite taking a year off, expectations are sky high for Jordan to establish himself as one of the top players in the league. Jordan may not hit for tremendous power, but with Lenny, and Eric Golden behind him, he won’t have to.
Team Questions: They are expected to miss a combined 16-18 games from the Preisses and Eric Golden(3 out of their first 4 picks). Although they’ll be there for the playoffs, they might have to face a difficult road to the finals if regular season games have to be sacrificed.
Best Draft Pick: Despite the missed games, Eric Golden was the perfect pick in the third round to give this team much needed power.
Prediction: 9-13
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
AL East Preview
Al East:
Team Beilis:
What’s To Like: Let’s start off with a quick stat:
The last three times Beilis has had a season above .500 = 0 finals appearances
The last three times Beilis had a season .500 or lower= three finals appearances
In fact, the last three times a team has made the finals with a .500 or lower winning percentage they were all Beilis’ teams.
It may be a genius strategy at this point for Marty to draft a team that won’t win oo many games during the regular season. If that is his goal this year, then I think he may have succeeded.
So what does Marty do if he can’t draft his favorite player, Noel Gluck? He takes the player who is most comparable in skill set: Nick Martino. The best thing going for Team Beilis is infield defense.
Team Questions: Health is going to be a big concern for a few players this year. James Dell’alba is a great pick in the second round, but will his knees hold up? Leo Friedlich is a great pitcher, but how is his back? I think Dace Clampffer will have a huge bounce back year, but he’s going to have to if this offense is going to be any kind of threat.
Best Draft Pick: James Dell’alba had a huge offensive season last year despite a slow start. His numbers this season should be right up there with the top 4 or 5 hitters in the league.
Prediction: 9-13
Team Pollock:
What’s To Like: When preparing for the draft, Matt and I never thought we’d be able to get both Adam Greenspan and Jared Goldberg. Just like last year, we have a lineup that’s going to be among the top scoring teams in the league. Two keys to our team last year were our pitching and how well the second half of our lineup performed. Not only did we get Herm again, but we have last year’s 7th, 8th, 9th,11th, and 12th picks. Amazingly, the offensive numbers of the six players we have that were not on last year’s team have collective (slightly) better offensive numbers than the six we were not able to bring back. The last two champions of the league have been the teams who scored the most runs during the season. This is a team that could very well lead the league in that category this year.
Team Questions: While I expect our team will do very well offensively, there very well could be a downgrade in defense. The good news is that defense was supposed to be our Achilles’ heel last season, but we answered the critics. We also have a slightly slower team this year which may sporadically cost us some runs during the year.
Best Draft Pick: Last year it was getting Brock Hor late in the second round that made us feel like we could have a heart of the lineup that would make things very difficult for opposing teams. This year it was getting Jared in the second round that makes us feel the same way.
Prediction: 13-9
Team Wallman:
What’s To Like: Team Wallman is the new Team Goldfarb. Part of the reason of course is the inclusion of the Bykofskys, a great value as a 1 and a 3. Like Team Goldfarb from last year, there may not be a lot of firepower, but this team can get on base as often as anyone thanks to perhaps the picks in the draft: The Silbermans. Add the fact that they have a very solid defense and you have the recipe for a team that will be very hard to beat.
Team Questions: The lack of power makes it essential that this team strings together hits in order to compete with some of the more powerful lineups in the league. There may be some guys where the offense will be kept to very few runs.
Best Draft Pick: I said it before, but getting the Silbermans in the 5th gives this team the on base machines they need to be an elite team.
Prediction: 13-9
Team Mamone:
What’s To Like: The first year captain has put together a team that has a little of everything. Speed(Mamone), power(Conti, Turner, Tvrdik, Mamone), and good defense(Polguy, Mamone again). This well balanced attack should keep this team consistently competitive.
Team Questions: I won’t mention names, but there are a few players who I thought went a round or two too early. This has a good chance of affecting the offensive output more than it does the defense.
Best Draft Pick: Tom Tvrdik is the real deal and will provide the same boost to Team Mamone as he did to Team Goldfarb last year.
Prediction: 11-11
Team Beilis:
What’s To Like: Let’s start off with a quick stat:
The last three times Beilis has had a season above .500 = 0 finals appearances
The last three times Beilis had a season .500 or lower= three finals appearances
In fact, the last three times a team has made the finals with a .500 or lower winning percentage they were all Beilis’ teams.
It may be a genius strategy at this point for Marty to draft a team that won’t win oo many games during the regular season. If that is his goal this year, then I think he may have succeeded.
So what does Marty do if he can’t draft his favorite player, Noel Gluck? He takes the player who is most comparable in skill set: Nick Martino. The best thing going for Team Beilis is infield defense.
Team Questions: Health is going to be a big concern for a few players this year. James Dell’alba is a great pick in the second round, but will his knees hold up? Leo Friedlich is a great pitcher, but how is his back? I think Dace Clampffer will have a huge bounce back year, but he’s going to have to if this offense is going to be any kind of threat.
Best Draft Pick: James Dell’alba had a huge offensive season last year despite a slow start. His numbers this season should be right up there with the top 4 or 5 hitters in the league.
Prediction: 9-13
Team Pollock:
What’s To Like: When preparing for the draft, Matt and I never thought we’d be able to get both Adam Greenspan and Jared Goldberg. Just like last year, we have a lineup that’s going to be among the top scoring teams in the league. Two keys to our team last year were our pitching and how well the second half of our lineup performed. Not only did we get Herm again, but we have last year’s 7th, 8th, 9th,11th, and 12th picks. Amazingly, the offensive numbers of the six players we have that were not on last year’s team have collective (slightly) better offensive numbers than the six we were not able to bring back. The last two champions of the league have been the teams who scored the most runs during the season. This is a team that could very well lead the league in that category this year.
Team Questions: While I expect our team will do very well offensively, there very well could be a downgrade in defense. The good news is that defense was supposed to be our Achilles’ heel last season, but we answered the critics. We also have a slightly slower team this year which may sporadically cost us some runs during the year.
Best Draft Pick: Last year it was getting Brock Hor late in the second round that made us feel like we could have a heart of the lineup that would make things very difficult for opposing teams. This year it was getting Jared in the second round that makes us feel the same way.
Prediction: 13-9
Team Wallman:
What’s To Like: Team Wallman is the new Team Goldfarb. Part of the reason of course is the inclusion of the Bykofskys, a great value as a 1 and a 3. Like Team Goldfarb from last year, there may not be a lot of firepower, but this team can get on base as often as anyone thanks to perhaps the picks in the draft: The Silbermans. Add the fact that they have a very solid defense and you have the recipe for a team that will be very hard to beat.
Team Questions: The lack of power makes it essential that this team strings together hits in order to compete with some of the more powerful lineups in the league. There may be some guys where the offense will be kept to very few runs.
Best Draft Pick: I said it before, but getting the Silbermans in the 5th gives this team the on base machines they need to be an elite team.
Prediction: 13-9
Team Mamone:
What’s To Like: The first year captain has put together a team that has a little of everything. Speed(Mamone), power(Conti, Turner, Tvrdik, Mamone), and good defense(Polguy, Mamone again). This well balanced attack should keep this team consistently competitive.
Team Questions: I won’t mention names, but there are a few players who I thought went a round or two too early. This has a good chance of affecting the offensive output more than it does the defense.
Best Draft Pick: Tom Tvrdik is the real deal and will provide the same boost to Team Mamone as he did to Team Goldfarb last year.
Prediction: 11-11
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
NL West preview
NL WEST:
Team Feldman
What’s To Like: This is going to be the best Feldman team in a long time. Feldman reunites three key members of the 2010 champs, Pat Brock, Justin Brock, and Dave Polzer. Sean Feldman is one of the best OFers and is going to prove to be a bargain as a “6”. Rosenthal and Glazier provide good pop and guarantees that it’s not just the big trio at top that can do some damage.
Team Questions: Like most teams, the bottom of the lineup might prove to be very vulnerable. Most of the late picks are young enough to turn the corner and become solid players, but if the trend continues then it will be a concern.
Best Draft Pick: I know everybody was concerned with getting a shortstop in the first two rounds, but how did Polzer last into the third round? Another prediction of mine: This will never happen again.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Goldfarb:
What’s To Like: A defense with the left side consisting of Gluck, Alex Goldfarb, and Ari Mesmer will likely play into hitter’s head. As long as Marty keeps pitching righties inside, their defense will be in good shape. Ari as a late 2 is a bargain. He’ll have to have a great season to keep this offense respectable. Marty has a reputation for being a great arc pitcher, so the rule change could make an already good pitcher even better.
Team Questions: I won’t mention names, but I feel a couple of picks were taken perhaps a round too early. There are a few bright spots further down the lineup, specifically Dave Mallow, but scoring runs consistently might be an issue.
Best Draft Pick: I think Justin Conklin has a chance to win Most Improved Player this year from what I’ve seen.
Prediction: 11-11
Team Randell:
What’s To Like: First of all, any team that has JZ becomes a championship contender. Kudos to Randell for being the 10th team to pick in the first round and still being able to nab the best overall player in the league. Ok, enough buttering up to the league’s MVP: Randell’s next couple of picks could not have gone any better. This lineup may not be as deep as other teams, but they make up for it with a ridiculously good top of the lineup. They also have one of the best pitchers in the league in Mike Seidel.
Team Questions: Randell is taking a big risk by moving himself to shortstop. He’s a great second baseman, but being a shortstop is a whole different ballgame. I think the team could have used another bat or two in the second half of the draft. The innings where the big guns aren’t up could be trouble.
Best Draft Pick: Trading for JZ was a brilliant move. Rothschild should have won Most Improved Player two years in a row! He’ll continue improving and play like a borderline “1” this year.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Younger:
What’s To Like: Team Younger has a great infield defense and a couple of Yockels who should bounce back and have nice offensive years.
Team Questions: Is it just me or are there a lot of natural shortstops on this team? Peragine is a great player but is missing up to 5 games(and 1 playoff game) which creates a big hole. I am not convinced that the offense is going to score enough runs to compete with some other potent lineups in their division. Now that I said that, I think I guaranteed that Team Younger is going to end up leading the league in runs!
Best Draft Pick: Last year’s stats won’t show it, but Eric Lurie was HUGE in the playoffs for us last year, batting .500 over the course of the 11 games. He might be the perfect case of somebody who just needed time to figure the pitching out.
Prediction: 8-14
Team Feldman
What’s To Like: This is going to be the best Feldman team in a long time. Feldman reunites three key members of the 2010 champs, Pat Brock, Justin Brock, and Dave Polzer. Sean Feldman is one of the best OFers and is going to prove to be a bargain as a “6”. Rosenthal and Glazier provide good pop and guarantees that it’s not just the big trio at top that can do some damage.
Team Questions: Like most teams, the bottom of the lineup might prove to be very vulnerable. Most of the late picks are young enough to turn the corner and become solid players, but if the trend continues then it will be a concern.
Best Draft Pick: I know everybody was concerned with getting a shortstop in the first two rounds, but how did Polzer last into the third round? Another prediction of mine: This will never happen again.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Goldfarb:
What’s To Like: A defense with the left side consisting of Gluck, Alex Goldfarb, and Ari Mesmer will likely play into hitter’s head. As long as Marty keeps pitching righties inside, their defense will be in good shape. Ari as a late 2 is a bargain. He’ll have to have a great season to keep this offense respectable. Marty has a reputation for being a great arc pitcher, so the rule change could make an already good pitcher even better.
Team Questions: I won’t mention names, but I feel a couple of picks were taken perhaps a round too early. There are a few bright spots further down the lineup, specifically Dave Mallow, but scoring runs consistently might be an issue.
Best Draft Pick: I think Justin Conklin has a chance to win Most Improved Player this year from what I’ve seen.
Prediction: 11-11
Team Randell:
What’s To Like: First of all, any team that has JZ becomes a championship contender. Kudos to Randell for being the 10th team to pick in the first round and still being able to nab the best overall player in the league. Ok, enough buttering up to the league’s MVP: Randell’s next couple of picks could not have gone any better. This lineup may not be as deep as other teams, but they make up for it with a ridiculously good top of the lineup. They also have one of the best pitchers in the league in Mike Seidel.
Team Questions: Randell is taking a big risk by moving himself to shortstop. He’s a great second baseman, but being a shortstop is a whole different ballgame. I think the team could have used another bat or two in the second half of the draft. The innings where the big guns aren’t up could be trouble.
Best Draft Pick: Trading for JZ was a brilliant move. Rothschild should have won Most Improved Player two years in a row! He’ll continue improving and play like a borderline “1” this year.
Prediction: 12-10
Team Younger:
What’s To Like: Team Younger has a great infield defense and a couple of Yockels who should bounce back and have nice offensive years.
Team Questions: Is it just me or are there a lot of natural shortstops on this team? Peragine is a great player but is missing up to 5 games(and 1 playoff game) which creates a big hole. I am not convinced that the offense is going to score enough runs to compete with some other potent lineups in their division. Now that I said that, I think I guaranteed that Team Younger is going to end up leading the league in runs!
Best Draft Pick: Last year’s stats won’t show it, but Eric Lurie was HUGE in the playoffs for us last year, batting .500 over the course of the 11 games. He might be the perfect case of somebody who just needed time to figure the pitching out.
Prediction: 8-14
2012 Pre-Season Predictions
Let the 2012 Marlboro Softball season begin! These predictions are just for fun and apologies to anyone who has their feelings hurt. I try to keep things as positive as possible, but honesty is important as well. I’m going to post one division every day or two. Feel free to make comments on the blog.
NL East
Team Jacoby
What’s To Like: Just like Pollock’s first two rounds last year, Jacoby was able to get a perennial MVP candidate despite not having the first selection and then get one of the most consistently great hitters, Brock Hor, in the second round. This formula worked well with our team last year, so the same may be true for another rookie captain this year.
Team Questions: I’m usually wary of taking rookies, and Team Jacoby has more first year players than any other team this year. There is usually an adjustment period needed for players coming into the league, and if they all stumble out of the gate then offense can be a problem.
Best Draft Pick: That being said about rookies, the Fradkin pick can end up being the best in the draft. Ed is by far the best offensive player in the league, and after seeing Mike’s tryout, I wouldn’t be surprised if they both end up playing like first rounders.
Prediction- 10-12
Team Schefkind
What’s To Like: This is a very well-balanced team that should have a lot of intensity. There’s not one bad pick in the bunch and a few players can catapult this team to one of the elite if they have the seasons they are capable of having.
Team Questions: I’m not sure who the shortstop is going to be, but it doesn’t seem like there is a proven answer yet.
Best Draft Pick: Malayz hit close to .600 as a rookie and can prove himself to be worthy of a first round pick with a similar season this year. It was only 2 years ago that Mark Persily hit .597. If he can find that stroke again then he’ll be one of the league’s biggest steal as an 8th rounder.
Prediction- 13-9
Team Applebaum
What’s To Like: Last year Team Applebaum won only five games so this squad should be better almost by default. Their outfield defense should be very strong and the bottom half of this lineup can match up with anybody else’s. Marter, Gershman, and Glassman all provide excellent offensive upside for where they were drafted.
Team Questions: While Team Applebaum’s outfield defense is very sound, I suspect that the infield may have a few more problems. While Jessie Cytryn is undebiably a great player, his missed games (5) will definitely affect the team’s win/loss record.
Best Draft Pick: As mentioned before, Applebaum got very good value during the second half of the draft. Out of this group, I think Ricky Marter will end up helping the team the most.
Prediction: 9-13
Team Granese
What’s To Like: This team packs a great 1-2 punch with Granese/Pargament. Paul Ritchie is a wild card, like any rookie, but has a decent chance of giving this team a trio of players that is tough to navigate through the lineup without giving up some runs. With Ritchie, Pargament, and Barbesh in the OF, this team will make it tough on teams trying to hit fly balls.
Team Questions: A running theme through this preview will be the impact of missed games. The noteworthy missed games list include Pargament(6-7), Marrone(4 not including 1 playoff game), and Zimmerman(6 not including 1 playoff game). The bottom of this lineup might be particularly weak since they had to use a 12th round pick on a player who usually goes in the 13th in addition to a rookie drafted in the 11th. Once again, rookies may succeed but I always expect there to be an adjustment period.
Best Draft Pick: Jeff Turtz it a great hitter for the 9th round. He’ll give this team a much needed boost, especially for the games when Pargament misses.
Prediction: 8-14
NL East
Team Jacoby
What’s To Like: Just like Pollock’s first two rounds last year, Jacoby was able to get a perennial MVP candidate despite not having the first selection and then get one of the most consistently great hitters, Brock Hor, in the second round. This formula worked well with our team last year, so the same may be true for another rookie captain this year.
Team Questions: I’m usually wary of taking rookies, and Team Jacoby has more first year players than any other team this year. There is usually an adjustment period needed for players coming into the league, and if they all stumble out of the gate then offense can be a problem.
Best Draft Pick: That being said about rookies, the Fradkin pick can end up being the best in the draft. Ed is by far the best offensive player in the league, and after seeing Mike’s tryout, I wouldn’t be surprised if they both end up playing like first rounders.
Prediction- 10-12
Team Schefkind
What’s To Like: This is a very well-balanced team that should have a lot of intensity. There’s not one bad pick in the bunch and a few players can catapult this team to one of the elite if they have the seasons they are capable of having.
Team Questions: I’m not sure who the shortstop is going to be, but it doesn’t seem like there is a proven answer yet.
Best Draft Pick: Malayz hit close to .600 as a rookie and can prove himself to be worthy of a first round pick with a similar season this year. It was only 2 years ago that Mark Persily hit .597. If he can find that stroke again then he’ll be one of the league’s biggest steal as an 8th rounder.
Prediction- 13-9
Team Applebaum
What’s To Like: Last year Team Applebaum won only five games so this squad should be better almost by default. Their outfield defense should be very strong and the bottom half of this lineup can match up with anybody else’s. Marter, Gershman, and Glassman all provide excellent offensive upside for where they were drafted.
Team Questions: While Team Applebaum’s outfield defense is very sound, I suspect that the infield may have a few more problems. While Jessie Cytryn is undebiably a great player, his missed games (5) will definitely affect the team’s win/loss record.
Best Draft Pick: As mentioned before, Applebaum got very good value during the second half of the draft. Out of this group, I think Ricky Marter will end up helping the team the most.
Prediction: 9-13
Team Granese
What’s To Like: This team packs a great 1-2 punch with Granese/Pargament. Paul Ritchie is a wild card, like any rookie, but has a decent chance of giving this team a trio of players that is tough to navigate through the lineup without giving up some runs. With Ritchie, Pargament, and Barbesh in the OF, this team will make it tough on teams trying to hit fly balls.
Team Questions: A running theme through this preview will be the impact of missed games. The noteworthy missed games list include Pargament(6-7), Marrone(4 not including 1 playoff game), and Zimmerman(6 not including 1 playoff game). The bottom of this lineup might be particularly weak since they had to use a 12th round pick on a player who usually goes in the 13th in addition to a rookie drafted in the 11th. Once again, rookies may succeed but I always expect there to be an adjustment period.
Best Draft Pick: Jeff Turtz it a great hitter for the 9th round. He’ll give this team a much needed boost, especially for the games when Pargament misses.
Prediction: 8-14
Saturday, September 10, 2011
NL First Round:
Goldfarb vs. Applebaum:
With all due respect to the players on Team Applebaum, but this is the one matchup where the outcome should be the most predictable. The bright side is that Applebaum only lost to Goldfarb by one run the last time they played. Unfortunately though, Goldfarb's pick of field allows them to avoid Applebaum's strength(right handed power) and plays right into the hands of a solid defensive team. Goldfarb may not be as dominant now as they were in the first half of the season, but that is not something to be concerned about until the second round.
Prediction: Goldfarb in two
Sarcona vs. Beilis:
We've saw just last year what a Beilis run ballclub can do in the playoffs despite a mediocre regular season. After dominating the middle of the season, Team Sarcona has looked more vulnerable lately only winning 2 of their last 5. Also, they lost both games to Beilis this season where the final scores weren't close. If you're looking for an upset in the National League, this may be the best chance.
Prediction: Beilis in three
Spiegel vs. Granese:
Like Team Sarcona, Spiegel was unstoppable in the middle of the season peaking with a 9-3 record after 12 games. The second half of the schedule has not been as kind and now Spiegel finds themselves matched up with a team that has the same record, but has been a lot more consistent this season. Despite the way the two teams have played lately, Spiegel has one big advantage: Municipal. It's the perfect field to try to tame the highest scoring NL team. Meanwhile, Spiegel has prided themselves as having one of the 2 or 3 best defenses in the league. This series will be close, but the choice of venue will help Spiegel make it to Round 2.
Prediction: Spiegel in three
Younger vs. Harris:
Younger was one of the most consistently good teams during the year buy Team Harris might be their kryptonite. Younger is 0-2 against Harris, but 9-3 against the rest of the NL competition. Meanwhile Harris was an NL best 7-4 in the second half despite having a -2 run differential over that span. Despite their strong play against Younger this year, I think Harris is going to have a short playoff run this year. Team Younger is one of the strongest squads in the league.
Prediction: Younger in two
AL Predictions:
Pollock vs. Lapine:
I'm going to continue the tradition of not predicting my own team's games, but I will offer the following excuses for both my team and Lapine's:
Pollock: While the record shows that we ended the season by getting blown out in two out of the last three games, those horrible losses were without our star pitcher Herm Suarez. With Herm back, I expect us to return to the form that earned us the top spot in the AL.
Lapine: The first time we beat Lapine, they were missing both Mesmers. The second time we beat Lapine, we squeaked out a one-run victory while they were missing Jessie Cytryn. If Lapine had a full squad both games, the results could have been drastically different.
No matter what happens, it'll be a little weird playing this huge series against both Mesmers instead of with them. I'm still bitter we didn't make it further in the playoffs last year.
Prediction: A well fought series won by ????
Peragine vs. Randell:
With all due respect to Teams Wallman and Feldman, if you asked pundits to rank the AL teams seeded #4-7 based on the threat they pose in the post season, chances are you would not get the current order. Randell's team may still have some holes (they still have only given up single digit runs twice this season), but they are the hottest hitting team entering the playoffs. It's not like Peragine has been slacking lately either. Like their first round counterparts, they enter the playoffs with four wins out of their last five games. The most common sentence I heard around the league the last few weeks of the season were "No one wants to play Randell in the playoffs." I think they're going to prove those people right with a first round victory.
Prediction: Randell in three
Wallman vs. Feldman:
The most interesting thing about this matchup is that the games are going to be played at the Manalapan Rec Center! I have a lot of wonderful Little League memories that took place at that complex. Yes, two of the last three Feldman wins have come against two of the best teams in Carlin and Goldfarb. Yes, Team Feldman almost beat Team Pollock in a 12-inning epic battle. No, I am still not on the Feldman bandwagon. While I think Team Wallman underachieved during the regular season, I still suspect they can make things very interesting in the post season.
Prediction: Wallman in two
Carlin vs. Schefkind:
Schefkind has played 8 games this year decided by just one run. Sounds like a lot until you consider Carlin has played in 11! If a computer were to simulate this playoff matchup, they'd have it going three games with the third being a 24 inning affair. These two teams seem to be THAT evenly matched. While Schefkind was playing short handed at the end of the season, I have to pick the team that's won 6 out of their last 7 games and has only lost by more than two runs TWICE this season. Still the most impressive team stat of the season.
Prediction: Carlin in three
Goldfarb vs. Applebaum:
With all due respect to the players on Team Applebaum, but this is the one matchup where the outcome should be the most predictable. The bright side is that Applebaum only lost to Goldfarb by one run the last time they played. Unfortunately though, Goldfarb's pick of field allows them to avoid Applebaum's strength(right handed power) and plays right into the hands of a solid defensive team. Goldfarb may not be as dominant now as they were in the first half of the season, but that is not something to be concerned about until the second round.
Prediction: Goldfarb in two
Sarcona vs. Beilis:
We've saw just last year what a Beilis run ballclub can do in the playoffs despite a mediocre regular season. After dominating the middle of the season, Team Sarcona has looked more vulnerable lately only winning 2 of their last 5. Also, they lost both games to Beilis this season where the final scores weren't close. If you're looking for an upset in the National League, this may be the best chance.
Prediction: Beilis in three
Spiegel vs. Granese:
Like Team Sarcona, Spiegel was unstoppable in the middle of the season peaking with a 9-3 record after 12 games. The second half of the schedule has not been as kind and now Spiegel finds themselves matched up with a team that has the same record, but has been a lot more consistent this season. Despite the way the two teams have played lately, Spiegel has one big advantage: Municipal. It's the perfect field to try to tame the highest scoring NL team. Meanwhile, Spiegel has prided themselves as having one of the 2 or 3 best defenses in the league. This series will be close, but the choice of venue will help Spiegel make it to Round 2.
Prediction: Spiegel in three
Younger vs. Harris:
Younger was one of the most consistently good teams during the year buy Team Harris might be their kryptonite. Younger is 0-2 against Harris, but 9-3 against the rest of the NL competition. Meanwhile Harris was an NL best 7-4 in the second half despite having a -2 run differential over that span. Despite their strong play against Younger this year, I think Harris is going to have a short playoff run this year. Team Younger is one of the strongest squads in the league.
Prediction: Younger in two
AL Predictions:
Pollock vs. Lapine:
I'm going to continue the tradition of not predicting my own team's games, but I will offer the following excuses for both my team and Lapine's:
Pollock: While the record shows that we ended the season by getting blown out in two out of the last three games, those horrible losses were without our star pitcher Herm Suarez. With Herm back, I expect us to return to the form that earned us the top spot in the AL.
Lapine: The first time we beat Lapine, they were missing both Mesmers. The second time we beat Lapine, we squeaked out a one-run victory while they were missing Jessie Cytryn. If Lapine had a full squad both games, the results could have been drastically different.
No matter what happens, it'll be a little weird playing this huge series against both Mesmers instead of with them. I'm still bitter we didn't make it further in the playoffs last year.
Prediction: A well fought series won by ????
Peragine vs. Randell:
With all due respect to Teams Wallman and Feldman, if you asked pundits to rank the AL teams seeded #4-7 based on the threat they pose in the post season, chances are you would not get the current order. Randell's team may still have some holes (they still have only given up single digit runs twice this season), but they are the hottest hitting team entering the playoffs. It's not like Peragine has been slacking lately either. Like their first round counterparts, they enter the playoffs with four wins out of their last five games. The most common sentence I heard around the league the last few weeks of the season were "No one wants to play Randell in the playoffs." I think they're going to prove those people right with a first round victory.
Prediction: Randell in three
Wallman vs. Feldman:
The most interesting thing about this matchup is that the games are going to be played at the Manalapan Rec Center! I have a lot of wonderful Little League memories that took place at that complex. Yes, two of the last three Feldman wins have come against two of the best teams in Carlin and Goldfarb. Yes, Team Feldman almost beat Team Pollock in a 12-inning epic battle. No, I am still not on the Feldman bandwagon. While I think Team Wallman underachieved during the regular season, I still suspect they can make things very interesting in the post season.
Prediction: Wallman in two
Carlin vs. Schefkind:
Schefkind has played 8 games this year decided by just one run. Sounds like a lot until you consider Carlin has played in 11! If a computer were to simulate this playoff matchup, they'd have it going three games with the third being a 24 inning affair. These two teams seem to be THAT evenly matched. While Schefkind was playing short handed at the end of the season, I have to pick the team that's won 6 out of their last 7 games and has only lost by more than two runs TWICE this season. Still the most impressive team stat of the season.
Prediction: Carlin in three
Sunday, September 4, 2011
How many runs are scored on each field?
At some point this year I was curious to see if what we said about certain fields held true. For instance, people always say Municipal is the worst place for hitters while Union Hill leads to the most runs scored. Was this actually true? Would the data back it up? I decided to keep track of the runs scored at each field this year. Wednesday night games are included in the Union Hill results. Here are the runs scored per field in order from highest to fewest.
Field Totals:
Field Runs Per Game
Union Hill Right 21.61
Marlboro Elementary 19.68
Marlboro Middle School 19.09
Union Hill Left 18.62
Swim Club 17.88
East Francis 16.50
Municipal 15.69
It looks like the results do correlate with what we think about the fields.
Here's more run scoring data:
This year there were 18.73 runs scored per game. The average last year was 20.09. Maybe the league's drug policy is starting to take effect.
Field Totals:
Field Runs Per Game
Union Hill Right 21.61
Marlboro Elementary 19.68
Marlboro Middle School 19.09
Union Hill Left 18.62
Swim Club 17.88
East Francis 16.50
Municipal 15.69
It looks like the results do correlate with what we think about the fields.
Here's more run scoring data:
This year there were 18.73 runs scored per game. The average last year was 20.09. Maybe the league's drug policy is starting to take effect.
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Power Rankings
It's been awhile since our last full day of games, but what a crazy Sunday it was. Teams that were in first place in their divisions (including tied for first) coming into this week were only 3-6 on Sunday. Teams that were in second place went 6-1. That's why right now we have 8 teams who can make an argument for being one of the best in the league. You can actually expand that list if you include Team Randell who are 6-2 in their last 8 games and Team Schefkind who have gone seven games in a row without losing a game by more than one run. They are remarkably on a four game streak of playing in one-run games. Experience in these pressure cooking matchups may prove very beneficial come playoff time. Speaking of one run games, this week's Power Rankings leader, Team Carlin, has played in 10 one-run games this year. That has to be a Marlboro Softball record.
I'll do a full playoff preview after Sunday's games, but for now here are the latest power rankings. Once again, the first one is based on the formula I've started to use. The second one is based on my opinion.
Team Rankings (Formula)
1. Carlin (6) 140.25
2. Pollock (1) 134.25
3. Peragine (4) 130.5
4. Goldfarb (5) 128.25
5. Sarcona (2) 127.5
6. Granese (8) 114
7. Younger (3) 101.5
8. Spiegel (10) 79.5
9. Schefkind (9) 77.75
10. Beilis (7) 69.25
11. Harris (11) 67.25
12. Wallman (12) 59.75
13. Feldman (15) 42.25
14. Randell (14) 37.5
15. Lapine (13) 32.5
16. Applebaum (16) 18
Since this is the first year I created a formula, I realize some kind of tweaking needs to be done. The most glaring example is Team Randell's placement. Because they had such a horrible first half of the season, even their great stretch over the past 8 games isn't enough to move them past the 14th spot. Here's how the rankings look based on my own personal judgment, the way the rankings were done for the majority of the season:
1. Carlin
2. Pollock
3. Peragine
4. Sarcona
5. Goldfarb
6. Younger
7. Spiegel
8. Granese
9. Schefkind
10. Randell
11. Beilis
12. Harris
13. Wallman
14. Feldman
15. Lapine
16. Applebaum
I'll do a full playoff preview after Sunday's games, but for now here are the latest power rankings. Once again, the first one is based on the formula I've started to use. The second one is based on my opinion.
Team Rankings (Formula)
1. Carlin (6) 140.25
2. Pollock (1) 134.25
3. Peragine (4) 130.5
4. Goldfarb (5) 128.25
5. Sarcona (2) 127.5
6. Granese (8) 114
7. Younger (3) 101.5
8. Spiegel (10) 79.5
9. Schefkind (9) 77.75
10. Beilis (7) 69.25
11. Harris (11) 67.25
12. Wallman (12) 59.75
13. Feldman (15) 42.25
14. Randell (14) 37.5
15. Lapine (13) 32.5
16. Applebaum (16) 18
Since this is the first year I created a formula, I realize some kind of tweaking needs to be done. The most glaring example is Team Randell's placement. Because they had such a horrible first half of the season, even their great stretch over the past 8 games isn't enough to move them past the 14th spot. Here's how the rankings look based on my own personal judgment, the way the rankings were done for the majority of the season:
1. Carlin
2. Pollock
3. Peragine
4. Sarcona
5. Goldfarb
6. Younger
7. Spiegel
8. Granese
9. Schefkind
10. Randell
11. Beilis
12. Harris
13. Wallman
14. Feldman
15. Lapine
16. Applebaum
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