Power Rankings- There's a Team Sneaking Up on Fradkin

1. Fradkin (1): They’re on a two game losing streak and they’ve shown more holes than they did earlier in the year, but I still think they’re the most dangerous team in the league even if the gap isn’t quite what I thought it used to be.

2. Pollock (5): Best record and best run differential in the league, so why am I ranking our team second and not first? Maybe as the author of this blog  I don’t want to put us at the top until it’s clear cut. We’ve been racking up high quality wins though, and a victory against Marrone maybe be enough to earn us the #1 spot.

3. Goldfarb (3): They’re still one of the top teams even though they’re not running away with the best record like a lot of people predicted(see the pre-season captain’s poll). I think the dog days of summer will play into this team’s hand given how young the core roster is.

4. Brock (5): I didn’t think any team would challenge Fradkin for first place in the East, but Brock can supplant the #1 power rankings team with a win on Sunday. To break into the top 3, I think Brock will have to start scoring some more runs. They’ve only topped 11 runs once this season.

5. Bykofsky (2): Falling three spots after splitting a DH might be harsh, but that’s what happens when teams are bunched so closely. We’ve yet to really see what this team can go when they have all 13.

6. Marrone (7): I didn’t think anyone would put up Fradkin numbers except, well Fradkin but Jeremy Paster is well on his way to putting up one of the best offensive seasons the league has ever seen. Add veteran Andy Pargament and second year breakout Evan Binder to the mix and this is the best hitting trio in the league.

7. Ferrarese (8): As first year captain, he drafted a fun, confident team full of speedy and powerful hitters. Ferrarese’s club is 4th in run differential and this is after getting blown out their first two games. Add them to the shortlist of Most Surprisingly Good Team of the Year. This team could make a huge jump in the rankings by winning Wednesday night and sweeping their double header this weekend.

8. Wallman (6): Wallman, Lapine, Schefkind are all close at this spot. All three teams are hovering around the .500 mark with just about an equal amount of runs scored and runs allowed,but Wallman gets the edge for having a stronger defense.

Updated Power Rankings

Last Sunday was an old school, every team plays one game on Sunday morning, week of softball. This week, with an absurd 15 games on the schedule, huge shifts are likely going to occur with the current rankings. Until then, here are the updated rankings.

1. Fradkin (1) - It’s been hard times for some of the other teams once mentioned as being in the exclusive “Elite teams” list, but not for Fradkin. Now the question is how long can they remain undefeated? The next couple of games are at Union Hill, a field that plays into this team’s many strengths.

2. Bykofsky (4) - Am I trying to jinx Bykofsky right before my team’s Sunday match against them? Of course not! This part of of the rankings is very close, but I’m giving the edge over the team that’s been hot of late.

3. Goldfarb (2) - Almost every team stumbles at some point in the season, and maybe this will be Goldfarb’s only bumpy part of the road. It’s not like they lost to a mediocre team in Bykofsky, but losing three out of the last four games will have a negative impact on the rankings, no matter what the circumstances are.

4. Pollock (5) - Even the naysayers thought we’d hit the ball this year, but the real surprise to most of the league has been our defense. We’re currently 7th in the league in runs against, which is all you need when you’re putting up almost 14 runs per game.

5. Brock (6) - With so many teams one or two wins above .500, this part of the rankings get a bit tricky. I give the edge to the Brock factor for now.

6. Wallman (7) - Three of Wallman’s four losses have come against Fradkin, Bykofsky, Goldfarb aka the top three teams on the power rankings. The schedule doesn’t get that much easier in the next few weeks, so it’ll be interesting to see if Wallman can move up by winning some tough games.

7. Marrone (3) - Last week I made the point that at some point pre-season predictions had to give way to how teams are actually performing on the field. I was using this to justify a teams that is outperforming the pre-season write-ups, but the same theory can apply the other way too. I still believe Marrone has one of the best teams in the league, but at a certain point the 4-4 record has to outweigh potential. Marrone also has the challenge of overcoming their captain’s injury. Get well soon, Glen.

8. Ferrarese (9) - Yes, Team Randell was missing their star pitcher (and #1 pick) as well as their SS (and #3 pick), but 16-0 is impressive no matter who is on the field. Right now their numbers are middle of the road offensively and defensively, which makes sense for a team ranked smack in the middle of the 18 teams. However, the general feeling here is a team that’s on the rise and gelling as opposed to a team that’s treading water.

9. Schefkind (8)- I don’t think many predicted the Central division to have Pollock in first place and Schefkind tied with Goldfarb at this point in the season, One of the pleasant surprises of the year, Schef’s group of veterans are out-hitting the “C” grade prediction handed out before the season.

10. Harris (12) - In 2013, Harris was a 3-8 team going nowhere before rolling off 11 consecutive victories, finishing 14-8 and making it all the way to the semi-finals. After starting out 0-4, maybe this team is following a similar path. That 2013 was predicted to go 9-13 and this year’s club was given a slightly better but still mediocre 11-11 write-up. Harris is used to proving the critics wrong and may be on his way to doing it again this year.

11. Jacoby (13) - Beating a solid Marrone team with Joe Mamone shelved and Noel Gluck playing while less than 100% is one of the gutsiest wins of the year. Jacoby is proving they will fight hard this year despite the challenges.

Power Rankings Update

Last week I mentioned that the league clearly has a top 3: Fradkin, Marrone, Goldfarb. Of course what happens next is Goldfarb splits a DH while Marrone drops both games, complicating power dynamics of the league. On one hand, one week should not make a major difference in how we view the teams in the league. On the other hand, if we don't eventually evaluate teams based on results then when would our views ever change?

I still believe the teams mentioned are the cream of the crop, but the gap is definitely getting smaller. It was especially hard ranking teams in the middle of the pack. So many teams have the potential to break out and valid arguments can be made for most of the teams ranked a bit lower. Win on Sunday and you'll move up. 

Happy Father's Day. Here are the updated power rankings:

1. Fradkin (1): The only question mark I hear is whether or not the defense can hold up the entire season. With an offense this good, all Fradkin's team needs is an average defense to be hugely successful.

2. Goldfarb (3): Hopefully Marc Broome has a speedy recovery from his injury. Without Marc, this is still a very good team. With him, they are one of the elites. They have a very tough game against Bykofsky where a loss will help narrow the gap even more between the Elite 3 and the rest of the very good teams.

3. Marrone (2): This is where I don't want to overreact to one bad week. There are three teams with better records(including mine) who might want to make a claim for a spot ahead of Marrone's, but I still feel like they belong here. A Father's Day loss will see their stock start to drop.

4. Bykofsky (4): It isn't a true 2018 Marlboro Softball week unless there's a rainout involved, and unfortunately for Bykofsky and Randell, they had to be the victims last week. Bykofsky vs. Goldfarb is the game of the week and a win should earn them top 3 consideration.

5. Every other team that has a .500 or better record(tied): If you take these rankings very seriously, this is where you might want to stop reading. You might not be happy with what follows.

5. Pollock (7): At what point does a surprise start turn into reluctance acceptance that a championship team bringing back over half its roster might not be so bad after all. Evaluating quality of opponents has its merits(sometimes) but you can only play the games that are on the schedule. A double header sweep(against non winless teams) deserves to be celebrated. So does a 6-2 start.

6. Brock (5): They lost to us Sunday while missing Justin, but we were missing two key players too. It's hard to evaluate every game based on who is here and who isn't, but it wouldn't

be right to penalize Brock too much for one loss where their #1 player was out.

7. Wallman (6): Wallman hung in tough against a superb Goldfarb team, so this placement is basically a status quo. A battle with the next team on this list will certainly have ramifications on next week's power rankings.

8. Schefkind (NR): One of the best surprises in the league, Team Schefkind is another Central Division team succeeding in the face of an unsavory pre-season projection. Their team may have a bit of a, let's go with Senior Presence, but they also have enough youth to balance the roster and provide some pinch running on the bases.

9. Ferrarese (NR): Speaking of low expectations. . .  The world is a better place when Cowboy Mike is writing game summaries. As a wise man once said, "Hey you gotta pay your dues before you pay the rent". Mike paid his dues with his rough start. Now it's time to start winning. He's been dressed for success, will success finally come?

10.  Lapine (10): If this column was written before Wednesday night's game, there's a strong change Lapine would be left off the list. Last night's victory against Jacoby keeps this team in the top half of the league. If they can clean up their defensive miscues then the potential is even higher.  

11. Granese (9): The team is one game below .500, but I don't see them staying there the whole season. Hopefully they get back on track in a few weeks since we're playing them this Sunday. The team is no doubt hurting because of Billy Torres's injury. In typical Granese fashion, defense is king(#1 in Runs Against). The bats need to produce though in order to end the three game losing streak.

12. Harris (NR): Yes, the first win came against a completely depleted 8 man Team Goldfarb, but a three game winning streak means Team Harris is officially rolling. After average 4 runs their first 3 games, Harris has averaged a whopping 14.25 over their past four. I might be underrated them at this slot, and a win on Sunday will be rewarded with a move up the rankings.

13. Jacoby (7): The drop in rankings is partly a result of just how evenly matched this part of the league is at this point. This is also a team that unfortunately has to contend with injuries to key players. Here's to wishing Joe Mamone and Noel Gluck speedy recoveries.

14. Paladino (NR): I was not originally planning on going 14 deep for this week's rankings, but Paladino deserves to be on the list for a DH sweep. Like most teams filled with rookies, it sometimes takes a month or so to find its groove.

Captain Predictions Flashback: Revisiting Championship Teams

Writing the pre-season projections can be a thankless job. Say something negative, and you become locker room fodder for the rest of the season. When I decided to revisit each championship team’s writeup for that given season, I admit I was expecting to see a lot of misfires. The league is full of surprises and I thought the projections would reflect this.

Enjoy this stroll down memory lane and let's revisit snippets of what was said about each championship team starting with the first season predictions are available online.

2011:

Champions: Pollock

Season Record: 14-8

Projected Record: 11-11

Speaking words of wisdom: “Rookie manager Matt Pollock had an impressive start to his inaugural draft by snagging Commish JZ , who has vowed to burn the Justin Jacoby Hitting CD he used last year , and bounce back with an MVP type year.” (JZ went on to win MVP)

I should have known better: “Unless the defense can win games with steady versus stellar, we predict it could be a tough start to the managerial career of Matt Pollock , a likely .500 season……which would not be terrible.”

2012:

Champions: Harris

Season Record: 12-10

Projected Record: 13-9

Speaking words of wisdom: “The author is predicting that the division will come down to the final game of the season leaving Harris one game short but expect them to make serious noise in the post season.” (Harris lost the division by two games but they sure made noise in the playoffs).

2013:

Champions: Jacoby

Season Record: 16-6

Projected Record: 14-8

Speaking words of wisdom: “What makes this team a potential championship team is Dave “if its not a 15 ft limit , I am not pitching” Clampferrer. Dave is not only a top pitcher , he is a steady fielder on the mound , allowing DK to squeeze the hole , and a lethal bat.” (Jacoby’s team came in second in runs against while Clamp batted .618 en route to winning the MVP award.)

2014:

Champions: Applebaum

Season Record: 19-3

Projected Record: 11-11

Speaking words of wisdom: “This top 3 is scary good offensively, clearly the best middle lineup in the league. Brian then grabbed the winning Yockel combo pick and Herm to don the mound to secure himself with one of the league's best hurlers. This team won't be at a loss for offense….”(This team set the record for runs scored)

I should have known better: “. . . the concern here is defensive consistency. We see an up and down campaign” (Applebaum’s team set the record for best regular season before coasting through the playoffs)

2015:

Champions: Granese

Season Record: 14-8

Projected Record: 13-9

Speaking words of wisdom: “Add in stud Murphy, beast power Siedenberg and steal of the draft Krauss and this team looks great on paper. This could be the year MG finally quiets the nay sayers.”

2016:

Champions: Goldfarb

Season Record: 14-8

Projected Record: 14-8 (ding, ding ding!)

Speaking words of wisdom: “Sure enough Justin and Pat fell in his lap with the 6th overall pick and a new era had begun. . . A nice blend of speed and versatility with a very well balanced roster has this years’ Jiffy squad primed for a strong season and potential lengthy playoff run.”

2017:

Champions: Pollock

Season Record: 15-7

Projected Record: 14-8

Speaking words of wisdom: “When you start with arguably the best two way SS in the league and follow him up with Clamp who but for his missed games would have gone as a late 1 you are on your way. . . Several veterans round out the roster and we have a team that should mash the ball, pitch as well as any team and play enough D to be one of the teams challenging for a #1 seed.”

I should have known better: “Defense- C+”(We came in second in runs against.)

2018:
???

If 2018 is another year where the pre-season projections were fairly accurate in predicting the championship then that's good news for either Marrone, Brock, or Goldfarb: the three teams predicted to have the best seasons this year.

This year may be unpredictable and chaotic in respects to all the rainouts and makeup games, but it has been remarkably predictable in respect to which teams are sitting at the top of the standings. There has been only one year this decade(2015) when the top three records were all predicted to be better than .500 before the season started. If the top three teams remain Fradkin, Goldfarb, Marrone(or Bykofsky), then it will happen again this year. In the pre-season predictions, three teams were predicted to have 15+wins: Brock, Goldfarb, and Marrone. Those teams are a combined 12-4 to start the season. In the pre-season Captains' poll, Goldfarb, Marrone, Bykofsky took first-third place and are a combined 12-3 to start the year.

In fact, the Captains' poll has accurately essentially every team that has a winning record at this stage of the season. All seven teams listed in the poll are among the eight teams that currently have a winning record.

This week's power rankings with last week's ranking in ().

1. Fradkin (1)- If there was one elite team that was slightly underrated before the year started, it's this one. They were predicted to go 13-9 in the predictions and finished 6th in the pre-season poll. I personally thought they were the best team on paper and their 5-0 start has done nothing to dissuade me.

2. Marrone (3)- Last week I pointed out their 44-11 run differential in the last two games. Their 10-run victory Sunday only adds to their dominating stretch. Fradkin vs. Marrone at Middle School this week is the early contender for game of the year and hopefully will be broadcasted somehow on Facebook live. It will also determine the number one team in next week's power rankings.

3. Goldfarb (2)- The move down from #2 is more of a reaction to Marrone's dominance than to Goldfarb's loss. In fact, it was impressive how long Goldfarb stuck around while missing five of their top seven picks Sunday night.

4. Bykofsky (6)- Their only loss this year was to a tough Marrone team while missing Polguy. I'm a little surprised their offensive performance is outpacing their defensive performance. I think their defensive stats will improve as the season rolls along.

5. Brock (5)- Brock has earned that 4-2 record while missing key players each game. This will continue as Captain Brock is missing this week's game. An impressive start to an always impressive Brock team.

6. Wallman (NR)- After a slow start to the season, Wallman's club rebounded with a DH sweep that puts them on the north side of .500. Led by strong pitching and strong bats in the outfield and first base, Wallman should be able to compete all year.

7(tied). Pollock (4) and Jacoby (7)- Two teams in similar situations who happen to be playing each other this week. For as great as Goldfarb's team is, both Pollock and Jacoby are in striking distance of first place. Whoever wins this game will continue to be a surprising challenger to what the league assumed would be Goldbarb's division title.

9. Granese (NR)- Granese gave Fradkin their biggest challenge of the young season which highlighted their superb defense. To move up the rankings, their offense has to score more runs though. Granese's games average only 12.3, by far the lowest in the league.

10. Lapine (NR)- This is my pick for Most Underrated Team(other than my own, of course). These rookies can play, and their 9-1 victory Sunday should open some eyes. They're also the one team who have defeated a difficult Marrone squad.

Power Rankings #1

Time for the first in-season power rankings of 2018. These will be updated before Wednesday night games. Only the top 8 teams will be listed. 

Honorable Mention: Mother Nature  

The rain has been the most dominating force this season so far. We’re not talking about little victories either. It’s not like we’ve woken up Sunday morning thinking, “Well, maybe there’s a shot at playing.” These have been mercy rule victories. Three Sundays in a row with a Wednesday night cancellation thrown in the mix is quite a run.

Power Rankings:

1.   Fradkin- In my eyes, this team has the most potent lineup coupled with one of the best pitchers in the league. Coming into the season, I didn’t think their defense would be top notch(Mr. Harris also agreed by grading them a B- in the pre-season write up), but so far they’ve only given up an astounding 8 runs in three games. All of this and they’re not even running on all cylinders yet. When was the last time you didn’t see Fradkin on the leaderboard? This team has the potential to challenge the 19-3 record set by 2014’s Team Applebaum.

2. Goldfarb- With so many young and athletic players, the only question was whether some of the top draft picks were going to make the leap and realize their potential. Marc Broome currently has 9 hits in a row, Darren Saler is near the top of the leaderboard in most categories, and Alex Goldfarb continues to stake his claim as one of the top outfielders in the league. It’ll be interesting to see how long Goldfarb and Fradkin can stay undefeated.

3. Marrone- After a shaky first game, Marrone’s squad has looked absolutely dominant outscoring opponents 44-11 in the last two games.  Before the season I predicted Marrone to go 15-7 and so far it’s a prediction I still feel comfortable with.

4. Pollock- Some may be surprised by the 3-1 start for the defending champs, but it is not all too shocking considering over half the roster consists of players from last year’s team. The formula right now is the same as it was in the 2011-2012 years that produced a championship and a semi-finals appearance: score a lot of runs and just be in the middle of the pack in runs against.

5.  Brock- Sure, it’s a head start to start out with two clear first round players including a top pitcher. Justin, however, is always forced to get a little creative in making up for their penalty. Picking the Preiss combo is paying off as is the Drashinsky clan. There are less than a handful of players where you can say “as long as you have _______ on your team, you should be good for at least a .500 season. The Brocks are part of that group.

6.  Bykofsky- Very similar to the Brocks, there is almost a certainty now that Bykofsky will put together a strong team each year. With Polguy healthy again, this team should end up in the 13-14 win territory.

7.  Jacoby- Jacoby’s team might serve as the template for how to have a successful team in an expansion year of Marlboro Softball. Draft some proven veterans early(Mamone, Gluck, Hor, Perloff) and take a chance with a rookie in the middle rounds hoping he’ll play a few rounds above his spot. Ballo looks like a steal as a 6th round pick.

8. Randell- Another team some may be surprised to see off to a good start. Sure it’s only three games but keep in mind their one (blowout)loss was sans Clampffer and they beat a tough Team Brock for their last victory. Their success partly depends on a pair of unknown rookies, but they are proving their value early in the season.

Captain of the Decade Update

Captain of the Decade Update:

With only two seasons remaining, it is time to visit an important question asked a few years ago. Who is the Captain of the Decade? There is no formula to easily determine who wins the title but any reasonable discussion has to consider both regular season and post-season performance.

A Positive Regular Season Record:

Eliminated from this discussion are Brock because he’s only been captain for one year and Feldman, Carlin, Younger since they are not currently captains and thus won’t have the other requirements that will soon to be discussed. Other short term managers that had a positive record but are eliminated from discussion are: Peragine, Spegel, Mesmer.

Current captains with a .500 winning percentage(Records as of 5/23/18)

1. Goldfarb (.589)
2. Bykofsky (.579)
3. Jacoby (.559)
4. Pollock (.538)
5. Wallman (.530)
6. Marrone (.513)

There would be no debate on COTD if it were solely based on regular season record. Goldfarb would clearly be the winner. However, post-season does matter. To what degree does it matter is up to each individual. A good litmus test is which MLB team do you consider the team of the 90s? Is it the Braves or the Yankees? The Braves had a better overall record while the Yankees won 3 World Series compared to the Braves’ one championship. Let’s first break down the playoff success of the 6 teams listed above and then take a look at some other teams who start entering the conversation for COTD based on playoff performances.

Post-Season Performance

Team	Championships	Finals Appearances	Semi-Finals	First round exits/Seasons as captain
Goldfarb	1	1	3	3/8
Bykofsky	0	1	1	0/5
Jacoby	1	1	1	4/6
Pollock	2	2	3	3/7
Wallman	0	0	2	4/8
Marrone	0	1	2	3/5

How These Results Affect COTD Discussion:

• Goldfarb: Goldfarb’s post-season success does enough to maintain his claim as COTD, but doesn’t do anything to further his case. He has his one championship and has made it past the first round more than 50% of the time. The only negative is his one finals appearance but he’s in the same boat in that category as most other captains. His three semi-finals appearances also puts him in good company.

• Bykofsky: He doesn’t have as many seasons under his belt as other captains in consideration, but it’s still impressive that Bykofsky’s teams have never exited the first round. As consistent as Bykosky’s run has been, it still hurts his chances that he has yet to win a championship. This is when being a captain for fewer years than the others on this list is a big hindrance.

• Jacoby: Despite winning a championship, Jacoby’s chances go down when factoring overall playoff success. Jacoby has exited the playoffs over half his seasons despite having strong teams. Still, every captain goes through bad playoff streaks, so this drawback can diminish with two good post seaons. For now, the overall lack of playoff success is seen as the main argument against Jacoby’s case for CATD.

• Pollock: If any team benefits from factoring playoff success, it’s my brother’s. He’s the only captain to win multiple championships and one of only three current captains to have three or more semi- finals appearances(Goldfarb and Harris are the others). One question I ask for each captain is “What will winning the championship do to that captain’s chances of being CATD?” If Matt wins and has three championships while no one else has more than one, then it would make him the frontrunner.

• Wallman: Wallman’s case for MOTD consideration is hurt by lack of playoff success. He is the only captain with a .500+ winning percentage without a finals appearance this decade. If playoff success matters at all, Wallman has to be out of the running for now. If all that matters is the regular season then there are other captains with higher winning percentages.

• Marrone: Marrone is an interesting case because in five short years, he’s made two trips to the semi-finals including one to championship game. However, all three other seasons ended in first round exits. Still with no championships and other captains with better records, Marrone is out of contention for now.

Special Notes:

Beilis had an impressive post-season decade with three finals appearances. However with a sub .500 record and zero championships, he won’t be in the running.

Harris is the one current captain not represented above who can jump into the discussion with two strong seasons due to his two finals appearances including one championship.

Final Verdict:

Here is how I’d rank the four captains who have the best shot at COTD:

1.    Goldfarb: Goldfarb has been the most consistent captain with only one season this decade where he finished below .500. He also has a championship and three semi-finals appearances. Many believe he has the strongest team this year(and after starting 4-0 it’s hard to disagree), so a championship season could clinch the title for Goldfarb.

2.    Pollock: As said before, the playoff success makes Pollock the only current challenger to Goldfarb. Pollock’s 4th in winning percentage, so while it’s not as high as Goldfarb’s, it’s also not a major blemish either.  

3.   Jacoby: If Jacoby has a better regular season record than Pollock then why isn’t Jacoby also a current challenger to Goldfarb? It’s because if you rank Jacoby over Pollock it means you value regular season performance a lot more heavily than playoff performance. If that’s the case then you’re choosing Goldfarb as COTD anyway. Still, Jacoby has two seasons to make it far in the playoffs and build a solid case for the title.

(Note: Feldman and Younger may not be active captains but are in a similar situation as Jacoby. Even if one of them came back as a captain next year and won it all, their regular season records wouldn’t compete with Goldfarb’s while having similar post-season success. Jacoby has a chance at winning multiple championships this decade, so he still has a shot at COTD.)

4. Bykofsky: He got a late start, but if Bykofsky wins a championship within two years and overtakes Goldfarb for best winning percentage, he will also have a strong case. No captain has won more games in a three year span this decade than Bykofsky 2015-2017.