Week 3 Predictions

Two weeks into the season and it looks like one of the storylines for this year is the Strong Rookie Class of 2013. Offensive Player of the Week honors have already gone to Frank Dukes, Michael Lazzaro, Dan Difidele, and Joe Spoto. It’s unusual for rookies to have such an immediate impact in our league. Most captains recognize the risks of drafting rookies. Through my own draft analysis, rookies, on average, tend to perform at roughly one round lower than where they were drafted. There is, however, one fact that speaks volumes for how important of a role rookies can play on a team’s ultimate quest to win a championship. As I pointed out before the season, the last three championship teams have all features at least two rookies. This is great news for Jacoby, Harris, Beilis, Lapine, and Mamone. In fact, two weeks into this season, it looks like Jacoby and Beilis are two of the strongest teams in the league. Will the rookies trend continue?

Onto this week’s picks:

Instead of listing matchups as they appear on the website, I want to group them based on similarities:

Marrone vs. Carlin

Wallman vs. Lapine

Beilis vs. Goldfarb

Randell vs. Jacoby

If I were to do a power rankings this week(the first in-season power rankings will be done next week) I’d have in some order Marrone, Wallman, Beilis, Jacoby as my top 4. In each of these matchups they are playing teams who are also either off to starong starts or can very conceivably break into the elite group at some point this year.

In Team Carlin’s case, they must feel pretty good about the fact they got to squeeze two wins out of games where they’re team batting average was a .286(!). The big bats will wake up and eventually they’ll win games the normal way, but this week is going to be a reality check game against a very strong Team Marrone.

Like Team Carlin, I don’t think Team Randell is going to be a top team despite their quick 2-0 start. Right now they’re benefiting from playing at a field tailor made to their strengths. Therefore, it wouldn’t shock me if they take advantage again and start out 3-0. I just think Team Jacoby is rolling on all cylinders and will prove why they’re the best team in the league.

Team Lapine has to deal with a devastating injury(get well soon, Dave)and so I think it will be a couple of weeks before they land back on their feet. When they do, they’ll be ready to make a lot of noise. For now, I think they’ll lose to a Wallman crew who is still looking to assert its dominance. 

P.S. This prediction might be different depending on whether or not Lapine gets an adequate replacement in time.

In their first three games, Team Goldfarb has to play Beilis, Marrone, and Wallman- three of the top four teams in the league. That’s why a 1-2 start shouldn’t hide the fact that they’re a very strong team. At least they are when all is present. If they are missing Adam Greenspan this week then Team Beilis will be too much for them. But watch out for Goldfarb as the season moves along.

Harris vs. Mamone

Bykofsky vs. Younger

These two matchups feature all four winless teams. In both cases I’ll go with the teams who have shown significantly more offensive abilities so far.

Granese vs. Applebaum

Feldman vs. Pollock

Two games that are hard to pick. One I can’t pick because I’m on the team, the other because I think the two teams are close in ability. Granese is better defensively, but Applebaum is better offensively. Because this is the year of the Rookie I’m going with the team that has one.