Where Have All The Runs Gone?

Are you having an off year offensively? Don’t worry, a lot of us are. Run production is the lowest it’s been since records have been kept. Here are a total of runs per game for each year since 2010:

2010: 20.09

2011: 18.73

2012: 18.51

2013: 20.45

2014: 20.76

2015: 20.00

2016: 21.69

2017: 18.25

So are runs per game at its lowest of the decade one year after the league set a record for runs scored in a year? Were we using juiced balls the last few years without even knowing it? I think the answer lies in the one noticeable difference in the league this year vs. last year…..the new Marlboro Swim Club. What was once a field known for high scoring games has become a defensive haven.  How much has it changed? In 2014, I had kept statistics for each field in the league. Here are the runs scored numbers for each field compare this year to the averages from 2014:

Union Hill Right:

2014: 20.54 runs per game

2017: 19.60

Union Hill Left:

2014: 20.03

2017: 17.55

Municipal:

2014: 18.88

2017: 19.08

Marl El:

2014: 20.74

2017: 15.46

East Francis:

2014: 18.35

2017: 16.86

Middle School:

2014: 23.13

2017: 24.36

Swim Club:

2014: 24.40

2017: 14.94

 We are averaging a whopping 9.46 fewer runs a game on the Swim Club field than we were in 2014. That’s by far the biggest difference out of each field. Only Marl El can even claim to be in the same ballpark at a -5.28 difference. This decrease in production at the Swim Club is enough to explain why our total runs in the league are so low. If we replaced the runs scored this year at Swim Club with the runs average scored at the Swim Club in 2014 then the league’s run average per game would bump to 19.48. It would still be the lowest since 2012, but at least it would not be a record in futility.

One answer could be that it’s just a fluke year. Maybe the league catches on fire and runs per game will approach the levels of recent years. Are there other factors to take into consideration? Are pitchers better now than they’ve been in previous years? Is the influx of talent in the league having a bigger effect on the quality of defense than it is on offense? Although these are possible influences, I think the renovations to the Marlboro Swim Club are the biggest factor. It’s the one change that is based on actuality and not theory as well as the one with data behind it. 

Power Rankings for week of 7/23 games

Last week's ranking is in parenthesis. 

1. Pollock(1)- Team Pollock’s 6.1 run differential is more than double than the next team on the list(Goldfarb at 2.7).

2. Goldfarb (5)- For as great as Team Pollock has been this year, if Goldfarb wins tonight there will be a virtual tie atop the National League.

3. Bykofsky (2)- It might not time to worry yet, but two of the last three games were blowout losses(16-5 to Lapine and 17-4 to Pollock). Surprisingly, both were on UH Left which should be a field that plays to Bykofsky’s strengths.

4. Marrone (3)- A one-run loss to Harris feels like a huge missed opportunity for Marrone to gain control of the top seed in the AL. I love the energy this teams plays with. Marrone will move up the rankings next week if they can defeat Pollock on Sunday.

5. Brock (3)- The regular season comes down to who is missing from week to week almost as much as it does about talent. How much can the team by knocked when they lose without Justin? A loss is still a loss, but in the long-term, the team presents as big of a challenge as Bykofsky and Marrone.

6. Wallman(7)- You can get away with having an average offense in the regular season when you have the stingiest pitching/defense in the league. I think it could be a potential problem in the playoffs though as historically speaking, teams with top hitting/average defense make it further than top defense/average hitting. More on that in a future blog entry though.

7. Harris(8)- Team Harris and Team Wallman are sides of the same coin. Again, credit to Harris for silencing the many naysayers  right after the draft. Good defense never goes out of style.

8. Lapine (NR)- Accoring to the team stats page on the website, Team Lapine has the highest OPS in the league. They averaged 5.67 runs the first 6 games of the season going 0-6 and are averaging a whopping 12.89 runs the last nine going 6-3. While it may seem odd putting a last place team this high on the power rankings, very few teams have played as well the last two months.

Around The League:

Team Beilis/Team Jacoby/Team Paladino: Interleague play has not been kind to these three teams. They have a combined 1-20 record against the AL.  

Team Applebaum: They get lost in the shuffle playing in an American League where almost every team is either .500 or one game away from it. They’ve been caught by the injury bug this year, but if they can beat Goldfarb on Sunday, they’ll start attracting more attention.

Team Feldman- They may have fallen off the power rankings this week, but this is a team that has more than a fighting chance of getting Feldman to the semi-finals for the first time since 2006.

Team Randell- The run differential is a league worst -4.5, but they’re getting hot just like Team Lapine.

Team Granese- Losses and wins come in pairs for this team, and as the pattern indicates, it’s hard to get a read on this team. It’s been hard getting everyone on the field at the same time, which has clearly been their greatest hindrance. Granese and Bykofsky are the only two teams that have played zero games with a full 13.

Team Sarcona- I like this club being that they’re one of only three that have defeated my team.  They were getting a lot more attention a few weeks ago when they were riding a five game winning streak. This will be an interesting few weeks because they’re in danger of falling all the way to the back of a very competitive American League. 

Power Rankings

1. Pollock- While I think it’s a coincidence that the rankings are starting up again when our team is doing well, here we are. While I have some reservations putting us #1 and putting a “target on our backs”, I don’t think I can avoid it at this point. We’re ranked #1 in Runs Scored and #1 in Runs Against, which would be an unprecedented achievement if it holds true at years end.  

2. Bykofsky- Just like last year’s near championship team,  the 2017 Bykofsky club is dominating because they have the offensive punch to go along with the stellar defense that’s synonymous with Team Bykofsky. It helps when the captain is batting .750 past the midway point.  With homerun threats from both sides of the plate (Becker and Kleschinsky), there might be a battle to pick UH Left with Marrone. 

3. Brock- I’ll take time to anoint Justin Brock the heavy frontrunner for Marlboro Softball Player of the Decade. He’s won three championships, while playing two separate key positions, and has made a quick transition into being a successful captain. Now if only he could get someone to write a game summary! Does their negative run differential indicate their 10-4 record isn’t as strong as it looks? Their 5 game winning streak has included 3 one-run wins, and a 2-run victory. Last night’s victory against Marrone is a sign that more decisive victories are on the way.

4. Marrone- How many homeruns would Doc hit if all their games were played on UH Left? Doc is on the shortlist of MVP candidates, but it takes a team effort to put up an 11-4 record. Lots of credit goes to the array of rookies playing well above where they were picked in the draft. 

5. Goldfarb- If Brock is the player of the decade, Goldfarb is the favorite right now for captain of the 10’s. Coming into this season, only Jacoby had a better winning percentage as captain(.600 vs. .584) but this season, puts Goldy ahead. Goldfarb has played a remarkable stretch of five consecutive one run wins where four unfortunately (for them) resulted in losses. Call them the Anti-Brock. Still while I don’t think it’s a fluke that Brock pulled out their close call wins, I don’t think those four consecutive losses capture who this team is. 

6. Feldman- Now we’re getting into the sleepers section of the rankings. Team Feldman owns a negative runs differential thanks to two games where Feldman could not pitch. Their -0.9 differential turns into a +3.0 if you take out those two games. Will not drafting a back-up pitcher cost Feldman down the road? When Feldman is pitching, this team is as strong as almost anyone else. 

7. Wallman- Before the season started most predicted Wallman would have the best runs against but rank towards the bottom of runs scored. The season has pretty much stuck to that script as Wallman is ranked 2^nd in Runs Against but 10^th in Runs scored. If they want to break into the top 5, they will need to produce more runs in a season where high potent offenses are actually down(Only 5 teams currently average 10+ runs a game compared to 12 teams last year). 

8. Harris- The biggest surprise to most prognosticators is that Team Harris is holding its own midway through the year. The Harris Blueprint this year was to draft a very solid defense with just enough offense to win games.  As with Team Wallman, it’s a formula that has produced mixed results. Still, credit has to be given for Harris seeing the immediate potential in Zach Krauss, the clear favorite for most improved player thus far. Krauss and Schefkind have done their part in making it harder to pitch around Callow, but Justin still predictably leads the league in walks.

Other Quick Thoughts Around The League in No Particular Order:

Team Lapine- High potent offense is starting to play to its potential.  Whoever is winning the American League is crossing its fingers, Lapine finds its way out of the 8^th seed.

Team Sarcona- Close to making the Top 8. The stellar return to form season for Noel Gluck is a big reason why this team finds itself in the middle of the pack.

Team Randell- A few weeks ago it was beginning to look like the season was going off the rails. The team has shown some signs of life lately, and it will be interesting to see if they continue to turn their season around.

Team Granese- Many people, including myself, picked Granese to have the best record in the league. Suffice to say, at 6-8, they come in as the season’s biggest disappointment so far. Missed games are a big reason why as they are the only team that hasn’t played with a full 13. 

Team Applebaum- Ed Fradkin is VERY good at hitting softballs.

Team Jacoby- I’m not used to seeing a Team Jacoby ranked in the bottom 5 in Runs Against. In fact, it’s never happened. 

Team Paladino- Sure this is coming from a member of the one team Paladino has beaten so far, but they are NOT as bad as their record shows. Any team that has hitters like Mike Paladino and Ari Mesmer along with rookie standout Darren Saler can stay in any game. Their last four losses have all been by a margin of 1 or 2 runs.

Team Beilis- It’s been a pretty rough season so far, but when the first three picks are rookies the hope is the team will click come playoff time.