NL First Round:

Goldfarb vs. Applebaum:

With all due respect to the players on Team Applebaum, but this is the one matchup where the outcome should be the most predictable. The bright side is that Applebaum only lost to Goldfarb by one run the last time they played. Unfortunately though, Goldfarb's pick of field allows them to avoid Applebaum's strength(right handed power) and plays right into the hands of a solid defensive team. Goldfarb may not be as dominant now as they were in the first half of the season, but that is not something to be concerned about until the second round.

Prediction: Goldfarb in two


Sarcona vs. Beilis:

We've saw just last year what a Beilis run ballclub can do in the playoffs despite a mediocre regular season. After dominating the middle of the season, Team Sarcona has looked more vulnerable lately only winning 2 of their last 5. Also, they lost both games to Beilis this season where the final scores weren't close. If you're looking for an upset in the National League, this may be the best chance.

Prediction: Beilis in three

Spiegel vs. Granese:

Like Team Sarcona, Spiegel was unstoppable in the middle of the season peaking with a 9-3 record after 12 games. The second half of the schedule has not been as kind and now Spiegel finds themselves matched up with a team that has the same record, but has been a lot more consistent this season. Despite the way the two teams have played lately, Spiegel has one big advantage: Municipal. It's the perfect field to try to tame the highest scoring NL team. Meanwhile, Spiegel has prided themselves as having one of the 2 or 3 best defenses in the league. This series will be close, but the choice of venue will help Spiegel make it to Round 2.

Prediction: Spiegel in three



Younger vs. Harris:

Younger was one of the most consistently good teams during the year buy Team Harris might be their kryptonite. Younger is 0-2 against Harris, but 9-3 against the rest of the NL competition. Meanwhile Harris was an NL best 7-4 in the second half despite having a -2 run differential over that span. Despite their strong play against Younger this year, I think Harris is going to have a short playoff run this year. Team Younger is one of the strongest squads in the league.

Prediction: Younger in two


AL Predictions:

Pollock vs. Lapine:

I'm going to continue the tradition of not predicting my own team's games, but I will offer the following excuses for both my team and Lapine's:

Pollock: While the record shows that we ended the season by getting blown out in two out of the last three games, those horrible losses were without our star pitcher Herm Suarez. With Herm back, I expect us to return to the form that earned us the top spot in the AL.

Lapine: The first time we beat Lapine, they were missing both Mesmers. The second time we beat Lapine, we squeaked out a one-run victory while they were missing Jessie Cytryn. If Lapine had a full squad both games, the results could have been drastically different.

No matter what happens, it'll be a little weird playing this huge series against both Mesmers instead of with them. I'm still bitter we didn't make it further in the playoffs last year.

Prediction: A well fought series won by ????


Peragine vs. Randell:

With all due respect to Teams Wallman and Feldman, if you asked pundits to rank the AL teams seeded #4-7 based on the threat they pose in the post season, chances are you would not get the current order. Randell's team may still have some holes (they still have only given up single digit runs twice this season), but they are the hottest hitting team entering the playoffs. It's not like Peragine has been slacking lately either. Like their first round counterparts, they enter the playoffs with four wins out of their last five games. The most common sentence I heard around the league the last few weeks of the season were "No one wants to play Randell in the playoffs." I think they're going to prove those people right with a first round victory.

Prediction: Randell in three

Wallman vs. Feldman:

The most interesting thing about this matchup is that the games are going to be played at the Manalapan Rec Center! I have a lot of wonderful Little League memories that took place at that complex. Yes, two of the last three Feldman wins have come against two of the best teams in Carlin and Goldfarb. Yes, Team Feldman almost beat Team Pollock in a 12-inning epic battle. No, I am still not on the Feldman bandwagon. While I think Team Wallman underachieved during the regular season, I still suspect they can make things very interesting in the post season.

Prediction: Wallman in two


Carlin vs. Schefkind:

Schefkind has played 8 games this year decided by just one run. Sounds like a lot until you consider Carlin has played in 11! If a computer were to simulate this playoff matchup, they'd have it going three games with the third being a 24 inning affair. These two teams seem to be THAT evenly matched. While Schefkind was playing short handed at the end of the season, I have to pick the team that's won 6 out of their last 7 games and has only lost by more than two runs TWICE this season. Still the most impressive team stat of the season.

Prediction: Carlin in three

How many runs are scored on each field?

At some point this year I was curious to see if what we said about certain fields held true. For instance, people always say Municipal is the worst place for hitters while Union Hill leads to the most runs scored. Was this actually true? Would the data back it up? I decided to keep track of the runs scored at each field this year. Wednesday night games are included in the Union Hill results. Here are the runs scored per field in order from highest to fewest.


Field Totals:

Field Runs Per Game

Union Hill Right 21.61
Marlboro Elementary 19.68
Marlboro Middle School 19.09
Union Hill Left 18.62
Swim Club 17.88
East Francis 16.50
Municipal 15.69


It looks like the results do correlate with what we think about the fields.

Here's more run scoring data:

This year there were 18.73 runs scored per game. The average last year was 20.09. Maybe the league's drug policy is starting to take effect.

Power Rankings

It's been awhile since our last full day of games, but what a crazy Sunday it was. Teams that were in first place in their divisions (including tied for first) coming into this week were only 3-6 on Sunday. Teams that were in second place went 6-1. That's why right now we have 8 teams who can make an argument for being one of the best in the league. You can actually expand that list if you include Team Randell who are 6-2 in their last 8 games and Team Schefkind who have gone seven games in a row without losing a game by more than one run. They are remarkably on a four game streak of playing in one-run games. Experience in these pressure cooking matchups may prove very beneficial come playoff time. Speaking of one run games, this week's Power Rankings leader, Team Carlin, has played in 10 one-run games this year. That has to be a Marlboro Softball record.

I'll do a full playoff preview after Sunday's games, but for now here are the latest power rankings. Once again, the first one is based on the formula I've started to use. The second one is based on my opinion.

Team Rankings (Formula)

1. Carlin (6) 140.25
2. Pollock (1) 134.25
3. Peragine (4) 130.5
4. Goldfarb (5) 128.25
5. Sarcona (2) 127.5
6. Granese (8) 114
7. Younger (3) 101.5
8. Spiegel (10) 79.5
9. Schefkind (9) 77.75
10. Beilis (7) 69.25
11. Harris (11) 67.25
12. Wallman (12) 59.75
13. Feldman (15) 42.25
14. Randell (14) 37.5
15. Lapine (13) 32.5
16. Applebaum (16) 18

Since this is the first year I created a formula, I realize some kind of tweaking needs to be done. The most glaring example is Team Randell's placement. Because they had such a horrible first half of the season, even their great stretch over the past 8 games isn't enough to move them past the 14th spot. Here's how the rankings look based on my own personal judgment, the way the rankings were done for the majority of the season:

1. Carlin
2. Pollock
3. Peragine
4. Sarcona
5. Goldfarb
6. Younger
7. Spiegel
8. Granese
9. Schefkind
10. Randell
11. Beilis
12. Harris
13. Wallman
14. Feldman
15. Lapine
16. Applebaum