NL First Round:

Goldfarb vs. Applebaum:

With all due respect to the players on Team Applebaum, but this is the one matchup where the outcome should be the most predictable. The bright side is that Applebaum only lost to Goldfarb by one run the last time they played. Unfortunately though, Goldfarb's pick of field allows them to avoid Applebaum's strength(right handed power) and plays right into the hands of a solid defensive team. Goldfarb may not be as dominant now as they were in the first half of the season, but that is not something to be concerned about until the second round.

Prediction: Goldfarb in two


Sarcona vs. Beilis:

We've saw just last year what a Beilis run ballclub can do in the playoffs despite a mediocre regular season. After dominating the middle of the season, Team Sarcona has looked more vulnerable lately only winning 2 of their last 5. Also, they lost both games to Beilis this season where the final scores weren't close. If you're looking for an upset in the National League, this may be the best chance.

Prediction: Beilis in three

Spiegel vs. Granese:

Like Team Sarcona, Spiegel was unstoppable in the middle of the season peaking with a 9-3 record after 12 games. The second half of the schedule has not been as kind and now Spiegel finds themselves matched up with a team that has the same record, but has been a lot more consistent this season. Despite the way the two teams have played lately, Spiegel has one big advantage: Municipal. It's the perfect field to try to tame the highest scoring NL team. Meanwhile, Spiegel has prided themselves as having one of the 2 or 3 best defenses in the league. This series will be close, but the choice of venue will help Spiegel make it to Round 2.

Prediction: Spiegel in three



Younger vs. Harris:

Younger was one of the most consistently good teams during the year buy Team Harris might be their kryptonite. Younger is 0-2 against Harris, but 9-3 against the rest of the NL competition. Meanwhile Harris was an NL best 7-4 in the second half despite having a -2 run differential over that span. Despite their strong play against Younger this year, I think Harris is going to have a short playoff run this year. Team Younger is one of the strongest squads in the league.

Prediction: Younger in two


AL Predictions:

Pollock vs. Lapine:

I'm going to continue the tradition of not predicting my own team's games, but I will offer the following excuses for both my team and Lapine's:

Pollock: While the record shows that we ended the season by getting blown out in two out of the last three games, those horrible losses were without our star pitcher Herm Suarez. With Herm back, I expect us to return to the form that earned us the top spot in the AL.

Lapine: The first time we beat Lapine, they were missing both Mesmers. The second time we beat Lapine, we squeaked out a one-run victory while they were missing Jessie Cytryn. If Lapine had a full squad both games, the results could have been drastically different.

No matter what happens, it'll be a little weird playing this huge series against both Mesmers instead of with them. I'm still bitter we didn't make it further in the playoffs last year.

Prediction: A well fought series won by ????


Peragine vs. Randell:

With all due respect to Teams Wallman and Feldman, if you asked pundits to rank the AL teams seeded #4-7 based on the threat they pose in the post season, chances are you would not get the current order. Randell's team may still have some holes (they still have only given up single digit runs twice this season), but they are the hottest hitting team entering the playoffs. It's not like Peragine has been slacking lately either. Like their first round counterparts, they enter the playoffs with four wins out of their last five games. The most common sentence I heard around the league the last few weeks of the season were "No one wants to play Randell in the playoffs." I think they're going to prove those people right with a first round victory.

Prediction: Randell in three

Wallman vs. Feldman:

The most interesting thing about this matchup is that the games are going to be played at the Manalapan Rec Center! I have a lot of wonderful Little League memories that took place at that complex. Yes, two of the last three Feldman wins have come against two of the best teams in Carlin and Goldfarb. Yes, Team Feldman almost beat Team Pollock in a 12-inning epic battle. No, I am still not on the Feldman bandwagon. While I think Team Wallman underachieved during the regular season, I still suspect they can make things very interesting in the post season.

Prediction: Wallman in two


Carlin vs. Schefkind:

Schefkind has played 8 games this year decided by just one run. Sounds like a lot until you consider Carlin has played in 11! If a computer were to simulate this playoff matchup, they'd have it going three games with the third being a 24 inning affair. These two teams seem to be THAT evenly matched. While Schefkind was playing short handed at the end of the season, I have to pick the team that's won 6 out of their last 7 games and has only lost by more than two runs TWICE this season. Still the most impressive team stat of the season.

Prediction: Carlin in three

How many runs are scored on each field?

At some point this year I was curious to see if what we said about certain fields held true. For instance, people always say Municipal is the worst place for hitters while Union Hill leads to the most runs scored. Was this actually true? Would the data back it up? I decided to keep track of the runs scored at each field this year. Wednesday night games are included in the Union Hill results. Here are the runs scored per field in order from highest to fewest.


Field Totals:

Field Runs Per Game

Union Hill Right 21.61
Marlboro Elementary 19.68
Marlboro Middle School 19.09
Union Hill Left 18.62
Swim Club 17.88
East Francis 16.50
Municipal 15.69


It looks like the results do correlate with what we think about the fields.

Here's more run scoring data:

This year there were 18.73 runs scored per game. The average last year was 20.09. Maybe the league's drug policy is starting to take effect.

Power Rankings

It's been awhile since our last full day of games, but what a crazy Sunday it was. Teams that were in first place in their divisions (including tied for first) coming into this week were only 3-6 on Sunday. Teams that were in second place went 6-1. That's why right now we have 8 teams who can make an argument for being one of the best in the league. You can actually expand that list if you include Team Randell who are 6-2 in their last 8 games and Team Schefkind who have gone seven games in a row without losing a game by more than one run. They are remarkably on a four game streak of playing in one-run games. Experience in these pressure cooking matchups may prove very beneficial come playoff time. Speaking of one run games, this week's Power Rankings leader, Team Carlin, has played in 10 one-run games this year. That has to be a Marlboro Softball record.

I'll do a full playoff preview after Sunday's games, but for now here are the latest power rankings. Once again, the first one is based on the formula I've started to use. The second one is based on my opinion.

Team Rankings (Formula)

1. Carlin (6) 140.25
2. Pollock (1) 134.25
3. Peragine (4) 130.5
4. Goldfarb (5) 128.25
5. Sarcona (2) 127.5
6. Granese (8) 114
7. Younger (3) 101.5
8. Spiegel (10) 79.5
9. Schefkind (9) 77.75
10. Beilis (7) 69.25
11. Harris (11) 67.25
12. Wallman (12) 59.75
13. Feldman (15) 42.25
14. Randell (14) 37.5
15. Lapine (13) 32.5
16. Applebaum (16) 18

Since this is the first year I created a formula, I realize some kind of tweaking needs to be done. The most glaring example is Team Randell's placement. Because they had such a horrible first half of the season, even their great stretch over the past 8 games isn't enough to move them past the 14th spot. Here's how the rankings look based on my own personal judgment, the way the rankings were done for the majority of the season:

1. Carlin
2. Pollock
3. Peragine
4. Sarcona
5. Goldfarb
6. Younger
7. Spiegel
8. Granese
9. Schefkind
10. Randell
11. Beilis
12. Harris
13. Wallman
14. Feldman
15. Lapine
16. Applebaum

Wednesday Night Preview

Carlin vs. Schefkind:
Projected Winner: Carlin

I do not want to play Schefkind in the first round. They're a 7-12 team that A) has lost six games this year by two or fewer runs and B) have missed key guys in multiple games, especially down the stretch. Tonight is no different which will hurt them against one of the best teams in the league. Team Carlin is locked in as an opening round 2nd seed so this will most likely be a first round preview. Throw out a 17 run loss to Team Pollock in Week 3 and here are the amount of runs Carlin has lost by this season: 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2.



Randell vs. Wallman:
Projected Winner: Randell

Fact Of The Day: Randell has given up 10 or more runs in every game except for ONE. I usually don't type anything in all caps, but that's amazing. To put it in perspective the next team on the list of most games giving up 10+ runs a game is Team Lapine who has held opponents to less than 10 runs a game in six games.

Fact Of The Day Part II and III: Randell has the longest current streak of scoring 10+ runs at games with 5 in a row coming into tonight. On the other hand, Wallman has cracked double digit runs only one time in their last seven games. They're the only team that can say this.


Bottom Line: Any game with Randell should result in at least 20 runs and playing on the highest scoring field in the league should yield even more. Randell has put together a strong second half performance and amazingly has a chance to get out of the 8th spot by the end of the season. I think that quest will be kept alive with a win tonight.

Power Rankings

I'm going to do two power rankings every week. The "official" rankings will be based on the formula I started using last week. The other will be based on my own judgment that I've been using for most of the season. The problem with a formula based ranking is that it does not take into account special game situations like key players missing games. Certain teams will be missing important players for the rest of the season, so their formula based rankings will take a beating. However, I can take that into consideration when doing my own list.

Like I mentioned last week, there's a chance the formula could be improved with some tweaking but for the most part I think it's a good indication of where teams are in relation to each other. I'm also going to list the total score for each team. Based on the point values, the highest a team could score is 160, the lowest is 10. If two teams are tied, the team with the overall best record will get the tie breaker. Here's a quick reminder how the system works:

I ranked each team in four categories. Each category carries a percentage of the overall score based on its importance:

Overall Record -35%
Overall Run Differential-35%
Second Half Record-15%
Second Half Run Differential-15%

I think second half performance is very important, but I also kept it mind that the last 11 games of the season are also factored into the "Overall" categories as well. For example, at the end of the season a team's second half record will really account for 22.5% of the formula (15% for "Second Half Record" and half of the 35% for Overall Record). I think this is a good balance to use. For each category the top team received 160 points, second best received 150 points, third received 140 points, etc. Multiply the points earned in that category by the percentage of the category and that's how many points a team earned for that part of the formula.

Even though the only games we had since the last power rankings were this past Wednesday Night, there still was movement on the list. I wonder how much the results are going to change after all the doubleheaders this week. It should be an exciting Softball Sunday!

Power Rankings Based on Formula:

1. Pollock (1) 150
2. Sarcona (3) 130.25
3. Younger (4) 129
4. Peragine (5) 126.5
5. Goldfarb (2) 123.5
6. Carlin (6) 110.5
7. Beilis (7) 108
8. Granese (8) 88.75
9. Schefkind (9) 79.5
10. Spiegel (10) 65.5
11. Harris (11) 65.5
12. Wallman (13) 56.75
13. Lapine (12) 48
14. Randell (14) 31.5
15. Feldman (15) 28.75
16. Applebaum(16) 18



And here are my own personal rankings:

1. Pollock
2. Younger
3. Goldfarb
4. Sarcona
5. Peragine
6. Carlin
7. Granese
8. Beilis
9. Spiegel
10. Harris
11. Schefkind
12. Wallman
13. Lapine
14. Randell
15. Feldman
16. Applebaum

Wednesday Night Predictions

I know if this were a job, I'd be fired for missing my deadline. But for the sake of posterity, here are my (abridged) Wednesday Night Predictions.

Lapine vs. Applebaum:
Winner: Lapine

It's been a long season for Team Applebaum, but the good news is if they start getting hot now then who knows what will happen in the playoffs! Lapine is coming off an excruciatingly tough loss and should be able to put it behind them with a win tonight.

Peragine vs. Goldfarb:
Winner: Peragine

Normally I'd be going with the team I still think is among the best three this season, but rumor is they are missing their Cy Young pitcher tonight. That is enough to tilt the balance in Peragine's favor who is still barely hanging on to the hopes of a division title.

Power Rankings

I made a little change when working on this week's power rankings. Instead of glancing at record, recent performance, I set up an easy formula to eliminate as much subjective thought as possible. Of course it's tough to eliminate it completely since I'm the one determining what to put in the formula. I ranked teams in different categories as if this were a rotisserie fantasy baseball league and assigned percentages for each category. The breakdown is:

Overall Record- 35%
Overall Run Differential- 35%
Second Half Record- 15%
Second Half Run Differential- 15%

I think this is a system that could be tinkered with forever. It's always debatable what kind of categories to include and what weight should be given to each. I wanted something that gives emphasis to how a team has played recently but does not ignore the whole season. If I put a ton of value on recent play then the rankings would fluctuate too much. The main goal was to come up with a formula where the end results pretty much align with what should be expected but also provide some insight that would have been missed if this power ranking was conducted just by glancing at the records. Another goal was to defeat the boredom of having nothing to do at my part-time job. I feel this was a huge success on both counts. I mentioned it in my previous post, but by far the change that stands out the most is how much Team Schefkind moved up. It has become clear that their 2-9 start was a product of bad luck. The system isn't perfect but I'm going to try using it for the remainder of the regular season. I also have some additional formulas in mind for a special playoffs preview at the end of the season. But until then, here are the latest rankings:

1. Pollock(1)
2. Goldfarb(2)
3. Sarcona(3)
4. Younger(4)
5. Peragine(6)
6. Carlin(5)
7. Beilis(9)
8. Granese(7)
9. Schefkind(15)
10. Spiegel(8)
11. Harris(12)
12. Lapine(11)
13. Wallman(10)
14. Randell(14)
15. Feldman(13)
16. Applebaum(16)

Wednesday Night Preview

Schefkind vs. Spiegel
Predicted Winner: Schefkind

After looking at the season statistics I realize Team Schefkind is perhaps the biggest sleeper in the league. Over the second half of the season they're 4-2 and have the best run differential in the league (+27). Although they were 2-9 in the first half they only gave up 13 more runs than they scored. Sure that's not a great number, but it's a figure that deserves more than a 2-9 record. When a situation like this happens there are always two ways of looking at it. The first way is that the team just isn't clutch enough so they stay close in games but are missing that extra ingredient to win games. The second way of looking at it is that they're a team that's had some bad luck and eventually they're going to start winning these close games. Team Schefkind is finally winning the games to go along with their good run differentials. I can imagine them finishing the season strong, ending the season at 10-12 and getting the 5th seed in the AL.

Meanwhile, Spiegel's team has been a tale of two halves. The best of times was the first half where they were 8-3 with a +35 run differential. The worst of times is the second half where they are 2-5 with a -24 run differential. After winning their last games perhaps they are back on track. I just think it's going to be a case of bad timing as they are facing one of the hottest teams in the league.


Granese vs. Feldman
Predicted Winner: Granese

It says a lot about the NL that a team with a 9-9 record is only a half game ahead of the 7th spot in the standings. Granese's record hides the fact that they are definitely an above average team. Like Team Schefkind in the first half, Granese has been at the losing end of several close games. Team Feldman comes in this game struggling a little bit with only one win in their last five games(although one of those loses was a 12-inning heartbreaker to Team Pollock). Feldman's greatest asset is their defense. In their 10 losses they've given up an average of 13 runs. In their 7 wins, they've given up an average of just over 4 runs per games. That's a remarkable difference. Unfortunately, Union Hill Right is not exactly known as a defensive field.

Power Rankings

Mini version of the power rankings this week. The most interesting thing happening in the AL is the surging Team Randell. Up until recently it seemed a forgone conclusion that they'd have to play the #1 seed in the playoffs but their three game winning streak has brought them back to civilization and only one spot away from the 7th seed. While Team Pollock has a pretty comfortable hold on the top spot in the AL, things are a lot more interesting at the top of the NL. Goldfarb, Younger, and Sarcona are separated by only one game for the honor of playing Team Applebaum in the first round of the playoffs. Seeing that every other team in the NL can pose a great threat, grabbing that #1 seed is big deal.

1. Pollock(1)
2. Goldfarb(2)
3. Sarcona(3)
4. Younger(4)
5. Carlin(7)
6. Peragine(5)
7. Granese(8)
8. Spiegel(6)
9. Beilis(12)
10. Wallman(13)
11. Lapine(9)
12. Harris(10)
13. Feldman(11)
14. Randell(16)
15. Schefkind(14)
16. Applebaum(15)

Sunday Predictions

Here are my quick predictions for today's games. After bombing my predictions the last few weeks I think I'm due to go undefeated.

Lapine vs. Randell
Wallman vs. Schefkind
Goldfarb vs. Younger
Granese vs. Harris
Beilis vs. Spiegel
Randell vs. Beilis
Sarcona vs. Applebaum
Carlin vs. Peragine

Union Hill Hitters

I asked some captains earlier this season to give me a list of their top 10 hitters on Union Hill field. Here is the final top 10 after combining all the individual lists. Thank you to the captains who participated.

1. Ed Fradkin
2. Dave Silverberg
3. Chris Yee
4. Joel Zaretsky
5. Jared Goldberg
6. Justin Callow
7. Jessie Cytryn
8. Adam Greenspan
9. James Dell'alba
10. Jeff Turner

Also receiving votes:

Eric Golden, Justin Brock, Matt Granese

Power Rankings

Over the course of the month there seems to be a magnetic pull towards .500. Great teams who were cruising April through May hit a rough patch while cold teams are finally getting back on track. As a result it's become very hard to tell which teams look like they're in great shape as we head towards the playoffs. Earlier this month I divided my power rankings into 5 groups. The "elite" group remains pretty much in tact with only Sarcona added to the mix. The lines the separate the next three groups, however, have essentially evaporated. Teams Spiegel, Harris, Granese, Beilis, Peragine, Carlin, Lapine, Feldman, and Wallman are separated by a two games or less! That means with a little bit of luck, the 13th best team in the league can easily become the 5th best team in just three games. With so many teams on equal footing, seeding does not really matter once it gets past the #1 and #2 seeds. It only becomes important for choosing the fields to play on, not for who the opponent will be.

Here are the latest rankings:

1. Pollock(3)
2. Goldfarb(1)
3. Sarcona(2)
4. Younger(4)
5. Peragine(8)
6. Spiegel(5)
7. Carlin(7)
8. Granese(6)
9. Lapine(12)
10. Harris(10)
11. Feldman(13)
12. Beilis(9)
13. Wallman(11)
14. Schefkind(14)
15. Applebaum(15)
16. Randell(16)

Wednesday Night Preview

Wednesday Night Preview

Peragine vs. Lapine

Predicted Winner: Peragine

This is a huge game for Peragine since they still have a decent shot at getting the #1 seed in the American League. All signs point towards an offensive explosion since this game features two of the top three scoring teams in the league. So why do I get the feeling that the unexpected is going to happen? Something tells me that the game will have a surprisingly low score with Peragine on top.


Goldfarb vs. Applebaum

Predicted Winner: Goldfarb

Team Goldfarb has certainly looked like an ordinary team over the past few weeks. During this time they've gone from a team that looked certain to have the overall #1 seed to a team that's battling with at least four other teams for that spot. However, Team Applebaum is not one of those teams. For a brief time, it looked like Team Applebaum was starting a nice little streak, but the past few weeks have seen them return to their losing ways. Perhaps they will put together a little winning streak with the season winding down, but tonight their tough season will most likely continue.

Sunday Predictions

Projected winners are in bold:

Feldman v. Goldfarb
Schefkind v. Beilis
Carlin v. Harris
Younger v. Carlin
Randell v. Applebaum
Wallman v. Younger
Wallman v. Spiegel
Peragine v. Spiegel
Harris v. Peragine
Lapine v. Sarcona

Power Rankings

1. Goldfarb (1)
Their hold on the top spot is not as strong as it was a few weeks ago, but they remain the best team all around. Although they're a team that was thought of as being light on offense, they have the second highest slugging percentage in the league.

2. Sarcona (2)
Just like last season, Sarcona's squad is getting hot around midway through the season. When the power rankings began on June 6th, they were 10th. Depending on how things play out this week, they could be first.

3. Pollock (4)
The team with the best looking set of brothers (I'm of course referring to the Lombardis) seems to be over a tough doubleheader loss from two weeks ago. The highest slugging team in the league is going to have to keep that up in order to secure the top spot in the AL.

4. Younger (5)

Like Team Pollock, Younger seems to be over a bad doubleheader from a few weeks ago. Interestingly enough, Younger is only 3-3 against the AL. That's second worst among NL teams.
5. Spiegel (3)

Spiegel's great season has hit a bit of a speed bump the past two weeks. Still, a team that only gives up 6 runs per game should be able to maintain a strong record going into the playoffs.

6. Granese (6)

Out of all the teams hovering around .500(and there are many), I can best picture Granese having something like a 13-9 record at the end of the regular season. Hopefully that hot streak starts next week and not this week.

7. Carlin (9)

If not for a 9th inning Pollock comeback, Team Carlin would be looking at a 9-5 record and a good shot at the AL best record. While this is still a possibility, this solid overall team will most likely have to settle for kings of the AL West. Come playoff time I think Carlin will be a tough matchup for anyone due to their strong defense.

8. Peragine (7)

This team can hit. Only two other teams have a better batting average and have scored more runs per game. Their +1.6 runs differential they have the second best in the AL.

9. Beilis (8)

The fact that Beilis is last in the AL West tells you how great that division is. They'd be looking at a 5 game winning streak if it weren't for a tough one run loss this Wednesday. It's amazing that a team this solid would only have the 6th seed if the playoffs started this week.

10. Harris (14)

They have a tough schedule ahead of them (Carlin, Peragine, Granese), but it looks like the team I thought had the 4th best team before the season started is showing signs of life. The aforementioned three game stretch will be a great indication of exactly where this team stands. If they win two out of three then watch out.

11. Wallman (10)

I'm still waiting for Team Wallman to show they're among the league's elite. Consistency is the problem. Here's how many runs they've scored over the past 7 games: 1,16,8,10,4,0,13.

12. Lapine (11)

Any team that scores 11 runs per game is going to be dangerous to play. Unfortunately any team that gives up 11 runs per game is going to be fun to play as well.

13. Feldman (12)
The team stats posted on the league's website show a team that would be incredibly good if they could only do one thing. Hit. They have 15 extra base hits all season while the second lowest total has more than twice as many. On the plus side, they've kept opponents to fewer than 10 runs for seven consecutive games which is tied with Sarcona for the longest current streak. Their defense will keep them close.

14. Schefkind (13)

Schefkind's runs scored vs. runs against suggest they should have a record better than 4-10. Personally, this team is the main reason why I want to have the best record in the AL. It's tough for a 2nd seed to have to play a team in the first round that has pretty good potential.

15. Applebaum (15)
16. Randell (16)

Both teams are in the same situations. You can get away with not scoring a ton of runs and still be .500 or better (Spiegel, Beilis) and you can get away with giving up a fair share of runs (Pollock, Peragine), but it's tough to win games if you're not scoring a lot of runs and are giving up a lot of runs. Great analysis I know.

Wednesday Night Preview

Pollock vs. Carlin


While I can't predict a winner in this game, I can say that this is another great Wednesday night matchup. The American League #1 seed is likely going to come down to one of these two teams, and Team Pollock will be looking to create some distance at the top. While having the #1 seed is always desirable, a quick look at the AL Standings show just how crucial it is this season. As of now the #2 seed would play a very dangerous Team Schefkind. Their 4-10 record hides the fact that they've kept it close in almost every game. Team Pollock beat Carlin 20-3 in their first meeting but as my brother pointed out in his weekly recap, that feels like it was played last season already.



Beilis vs. Harris:

Projected Winner: Harris

I expect this to be another "making a statement" game in Team Harris's climb towards NL respectability. A 6-8 record in the AL would have you in the middle of the pack, but a sub .500 team in the NL gets you the 7th seed. Harris seems on paper to be a better fit for Union Hill, and I wouldn't be surprised if action on Union Hill Left has to stop so we can retrieve one or two Justin Callow HR balls.

Power Rankings

Power Rankings:
Last Week's rankings are in parentheses.

1. Goldfarb (1)
2. Sarcona (7)
3. Spiegel (2)
4. Pollock (3)
5. Younger (4)
6. Granese (5)
7. Peragine (10)
8. Beilis (9)
9. Carlin (6)
10. Wallman (11)
11. Lapine (12)
12. Feldman (8)
13. Schefkind (14)
14. Harris (13)
15. Applebaum (15)
16. Randell (16)

Wednesday Night Predictions

Spiegel vs. Sarcona

Winner: Sarcona

One of the best matchups you can ask for now. No two teams have steadily improved in the rankings during the seasons like Spiegel and Sarcona. While I'd still say Goldfarb has the top squad in the league, this game will feature the #2 and #3 teams. The game will also feature the two teams with the longest winning streaks, and while both teams have guys who can hit it out of Union Hill, I think Sarcona will be the team that keeps on winning.

Lapine vs. Schefkind

Winner: Lapine

No offense to either team, but it may be hard selling tickets to this game with Sarcona vs. Spiegel on the other field. I continue to be amazed at how Team Schefkind keeps losing despite keeping it close most games. They could end up being 2-16 in a few weeks and I'll still think they'll be able to turn it around. After many weeks of having the second best offense in the league, Team Lapine is back to being the top scoring team. Even though Schefkind's team has kept it close most weeks, here's a night where Lapine will win by a healthy margin.

Sunday Preview

One question I have as we enter the second half of the 2011 season is "Where has all the offense gone?" While the individual leaderboards show no indication of any offensive declines, team totals tell a different story. Last year, 10 teams averaged at least 10 runs per game. This year, only 2 teams can say the same. Last year there was an average of 20.09 runs scored per game. This year that total is down to 17.08. This means over the course of a season there will be approximately 550 fewer runs scored this year than last year. Most likely the difference between the two seasons is just coincidental and can't be attributed to anything. Perhaps this means we're in for a very high scoring second half to make up for the first half.

As we enter the second half of the season, several teams playing double headers are looking to put a mediocre first half behind and show that they're a real threat. Unfortunately for Teams Lapine, Harris, and Feldman they have some tough matchups that will most likely prevent them from sweeping their Sunday games. If I had to pick one of these three teams to win both their games I'd pick Feldman. However, I think they'll come up short against Younger.

So while Sunday doubleheaders provide opportunities for teams to accumulate some momentum, I think we'll have to wait for a middle of the pack team to take a major step up. Here are my complete Sunday predictions(minus my team's games) with the projected winner in bold:

Harris vs. Wallman
Granese vs. Randell
Sarcona vs. Schefkind
Applebaum vs. Peragine
Younger vs. Feldman
Feldman vs. Harris
Spiegel vs. Carlin
Goldfarb vs. Lapine
Lapine vs. Younger

Wednesday Night Preview- What's At Stake

I'm burning the 8:00 oil with how close this post is to game time, but I figured for a Wednesday night preview I'd just cover what's at stake for each time tonight in relation to the power rankings.


If Pollock beats Wallman:

Pollock- I'm not going to change the top 3 until we see Spiegel or Goldfarb lose.

Wallman- Likewise, a loss against a tough team wouldn't be enough to drop Wallman in the rankings.

If Wallman beats Pollock:

Pollock- It pains me to move my team down the rankings! Most likely, a loss tonight would move us down to 4th, especially if the game isn't close.

Wallman- this would be a huge "quality win" so a win would put them ahead of other teams that are similar boat. As indicated in last week's rankings, this group includes teams like Beilis, Peragine, and Feldman.


If Granese beats Applebaum:

Granese- Granese is currently right below the "elite" teams. Since Applebaum is on the lower end of the spectrum right now, a win tonight would not be enough to get to the next level.

Applebaum- Poor Randell will still be the lowest rung on the ladder until they can string together some wins.

If Applebaum beats Granese:

Granese- Being that this would be a very tough loss, an Applebaum victory would move Granese to the bottom of the "almost elite" group.

Applebaum- A win tonight would make it a winning streak and show things are finally improving after a very rough start. A victory would move them to the top of the "very tough hole" group.

Power Rankings

This week's Power Rankings is divided into five categories. Last week's rankings are in parentheses:

The Elite- Teams who have shown they'll be one of the best teams by the end of the season. Although the playoffs are always unpredictable, these teams should easily win any first round matchup. Yeah, I know we're still far away from September, but it's always fun to look ahead.

1. Goldfarb (2)
2. Spiegel (3)
3. Pollock (1)
4. Younger (4)

The Almost Elite- I know, clever group name. In playoff terms, these are the teams who as of right now can go into the post season confident they can knock off an elite team in the second round. With half the season left, they can end up being an elite team, but it will take a hot streak.

5. Granese (6)
6. Carlin (5)
7. Sarcona (8)


The In Limbo- This is the most interesting group. A team in this category is one winning streak away from showing they're a dangerous squad, but they're one 3 game losing streak away from facing a disappointing season. It's fitting that since this is a league that encourages parity; more teams are in this group than any other.

8. Feldman (10)
9. Beilis (12)
10. Peragine (7)
11. Wallman (9)
12. Lapine (11)

The Very Deep Hole - I was originally only going to have four groups, but I created this one for two teams whose records hide the potential these teams still have. Maybe at this point in the season "you are what you are", but maybe these teams just have been unlucky and will find good fortune soon. If they don't get hot, they'll find themselves in the last group.

13. Harris (14)
14. Schefkind (13)

The Maybe Next Year Group- For whatever reasons, this is not the year for these teams. It's true anything can happen in the second half and the playoffs, but to quote the Ramones, it'll most likely be "second verse same as the first."

15. Applebaum (15)
16. Randell (16)

Sunday Preview/Predictions

Thanks to the NL dominating last week's games, I haven't too much success predicting these matchups. We have a lot of games this week, and the league could have quite a big shakeup. For instance, before last week it would have been easy to say Team Younger was the best in the league. However if (and this is a big IF) they lose both games this week, they're in the middle of the pack at 5-4. In addition to Younger, other teams playing two games include:

Granese
Spiegel
Beilis
Lapine
Harris

Out of these teams I think Lapine and Harris have the most at stake. Team Harris looked very strong before the season, but a 3-6 record has them in danger of falling well short of expectations. They don't have it easy this week playing Younger and Lapine, but if they can win both these games they'll be making a strong statement.

And speaking of Lapine, their reputation of being among the league's elite has clearly taken a hit during their 4 game losing streak. They're the only team with a losing record that has scored more runs than given up, and I still think they're one of the better teams in the league. However, another disappointing week would have them at 3-7 for the year. That's why Harris vs. Lapine is one of the more appealing matchups this week. Two pre-season favorites in desperate need to turn their seasons around.

Another great matchup is going to be the early Marlboro El game between Spiegel and Feldman. At this point there is no disputing how good Mitch's crew is, but it's Team Feldman that is quietly establishing themselves as a team to be reckoned with. After a roster shakeup, their team has made a 180 degree turn from their eawrly struggles. Case in point: During their three game winning streak they've won by 8, 6, and 12 runs. Each win has been decisive. In the 3 games preceding these, they've lost by 9, 13, and 13. Clearly Feldman has turned their season around. Even though on paper it looks like an upset, I'm picking Feldman to continue their hot streak vs. a very tough Team Spiegel.

Here are all my picks for the week with the predicted winner in bold.

Spiegel vs. Feldman
Granese vs. Carlin
Granese vs. Spiegel
Applebaum vs. Wallman
Sarcona vs. Randell
Beilis vs. Peragine
Beilis vs. Lapine
Harris vs. Lapine
Younger vs. Harris
Younger vs. Schefkind

Power Rankings

Power Rankings:
Last week's rankings are in parenthesis.

1.Pollock (2)
Another tough game playing Team Goldfarb.
2.Goldfarb (3)
They will earn the top spot if they beat Team Pollock this Sunday.
3.Spiegel (4)
4.Younger (1)
This is a decent sized drop from last week's top spot but it's mostly due to the performances by the top three teams than anything else.
5.Carlin (6)
Two of their three losses have been by one run. A win this week will ensure they move to the top 4 next week.
6.Granese (7)
A pair of very tough games this week vs. Carlin and Spiegel.
7.Peragine (5)
8.Sarcona (10)
9.Wallman (8)
I keep expecting this team to take off and establish themselves as one of the league's elite. After this week's game they're playing two teams whose combined record is 14-5.
10.Feldman (12)
No team has gone through a bigger roster transformation than Team Feldman, and so far the results have been very positive.
11. Lapine (9)
Something tells me Team Lapine is going to start a nice winning streak very soon.
12. Beilis (11)
13. Schefkind (13)
A 2-7 record for a team who has only given up 4 runs than they've scored sounds like bad luck to me. The wins should come eventually.
14. Harris (14)
As much as I thought Team Goldfarb would struggle this year, I thought Team Harris would dominate. It's not too late for a turnaround, but I'm very close to admitting I may have been wrong.
15. Applebaum (15)
16. Randell (16)

Wednesday Predictions

Carlin vs. Schefkind

Winner: Schefkind

I think we're in line for an upset. I like Carlin's team, but Schefkind's squad's record has to start matching their runs scored/against totals eventually. They've been at the tail end of some tough losses this year. They need a good, surprising win to start turning it around. This is where they get it.

Randell vs. Wallman

Winner: Wallman

I still believe Team Wallman is one of the best in the league. A win here would get them closer to the division title I think they'll end up having. A loss here would make me second guess my original team outlook.

Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based almost entirely on team record, runs scored/runs against, and recent performance. The number in parenthesis indicate last week's ranking.

1. Younger (1)
2. Pollock (2)
3. Goldfarb (4)
4. Spiegel (3)
5. Peragine (5)
6. Carlin (7)
7. Granese (9)
8. Wallman (6)
9. Lapine (8)
10. Sarcona (10)
11. Beilis (11)
12. Feldman (14)
13. Schefkind (12)
14. Harris (13)
15. Applebaum (15)
16. Randell (16)

Notes: Team Younger has the top spot until they lose again. Hopefully that will be this week to Team Pollock. Speaking of Team Pollock, the next two weeks are as tough as it gets playing Younger and Goldfarb.

AL vs. NL Runs Scored/ Sunday Predictions

Teams may have been arbitrarily been placed in the American League or National League, but there certainly has been a great divide between the two leagues this year. Staying true to their MLB counterparts, the AL has earned the reputation as home of the slugfest while the NL prides itself on defense. The top scoring NL team would have the 7th best offense in the AL while the best defensive AL team would only have the 6th best in that category in the NL. With the second week of interleague games coming up this Sunday, I thought I’d look at the runs scored numbers for both leagues.

So far there have been 64 games played. 56 of these have been intraleague (AL vs. AL/ NL vs.NL) while the other 8 have been interleague. Here are the runs scored totals for all intraleague games:

NL= 6.25 runs per game
AL= 10.07 runs per game

Last week was the first full week of interleague games. Here are the runs scored statistics based on the 8 NL vs. AL games so far this season:

NL= 8.38 runs per game
AL= 9.38 runs per game

It’s interesting that when the two teams play each other, the runs scored gap between the two leagues shrinks. Maybe the answer is simply the NL has better defense than the AL. Maybe the answer is it’s only been 8 games. It’ll be interesting (at least to me) to see how these numbers change after Sunday.

Although the AL is scoring one run more per game than the NL in interleague games, they are only 3-5 in these matchups. This week I’m going to support my fellow American League teams and predict them to win almost all of this week’s games. I think the AL will continue to score runs in bunches and those incredible NL runs against averages will begin to rise. Here are my quick predictions:

Projected winner in bold:

Carlin vs. Beilis
Wallman vs. Granese
Feldman vs. Applebaum
Peragine vs. Sarcona
Schefkind vs. Harris
Goldfarb vs. Randell
Spiegel vs. Lapine

Wednesday Night Predictions

Team Spiegel vs. Team Goldfarb

Winner: Goldfarb

I wish I could predict a tie. There are two important signs point towards Spiegel. They have a better runs scored differential and an offense that's a better fit for Union Hill. Team Goldfarb plays great defense but there's no defending a ball that goes over the fence. On the other hand, Goldfarb is the one team who is on a hotter streak than Spiegel. I want to see what it feels like to be on Team Goldfarb's side for one week so I'll pick their squad in what should be a great game.

Team Harris vs. Team Sarcona

Winner: Sarcona

These are two teams who should score plenty of runs. I think Team Harris is still capable of turning their season around, but I'm picking Sarcona to rebound from Sunday's loss.

Mea Culpa

In every man's life there are moments when he must look deep into his own soul and ask some of life's most difficult questions. Who am I? What is my purpose in this world? Am I fulfilling my potential as a human being? Am I giving Team Goldfarb enough credit in the 2011 Marlboro Mens Softball League?

The first three questions have given me pause for thought, but it is that last essential question which has caused me great trouble. Every time I thought I figured them out and they would play like I originally predicted, they proved me wrong. It is a very difficult situation when something you have accepted as an absolute truth is consistently proven wrong. At first you write it off as an exception, but eventually you have to confront reality. I have to face the truth. Team Goldfarb is a very good team.

Their defense is suffocating. Their pitching is immaculate. Their baserunning is impeccable. Their hitting is astounding. So I am truly sorry to Alex Goldfarb, Scott Bornstein, Rob Bykofsky, Guy Goldfarb, Justin Bykofsky, Jordan Krant, Larry Kaplow, Mark Goldberg, Nick Martino, Mike Strauss, Matt Polguy, Jay Rosenthal, and Thomas Tvrdik. You have my and the league's attention. I apologize and you have proven me wrong.

Sincerely,
Mitch Pollock

P.S. This Wednesday's game against Spiegel is going to be tough. I'm not sure who I am picking yet.

Sunday Predictions

Like everything else on this site, this post is just for fun. My one rule is I'm not going to make any predictions involving my team's games. Just assume I think our team is going to win every game for the rest of the season 

Beilis vs. Lapine

Winner: Lapine

I think Team Lapine is going to break out again and score a ton of runs after some low scoring efforts.

Granese vs. Schefkind:

Winner: Schefkind

Amazingly, Schefkind is 2-5 despite scoring more runs than they have given up. Granese has lost two in a row, but I think they'll lose one or two more before getting back on track.

Spiegel vs. Randell

Winner: Spiegel

Tough matchup for Randell to play one of the hottest teams in the league. Will Spiegel give up less than 100 runs for the year? Let the watch begin.

Carlin vs. Randell

Winner: Carlin

Before the season started, I thought Carlin had the third best team and it looks like they're starting to play up to those expectations.

Goldfarb vs. Wallman

Winner: Wallman

Ok, so I may have been slightly wrong about Goldfarb's squad coming into the year. However, the streak of underestimation is going to continue just a little longer. Wallman's team was my preseason pick for the best team in the league and they've been on a roll lately. I will issue a public apology to Team Goldfarb if they win this game.

Younger vs. Carlin

Winner: Younger

This is a good matchup, but I'm going to go with the team with the best record in the league. This should be a close one.

Sarcona vs. Feldman

Winner: Sarcona

I think Sarcona has the best team in a very tight NL West. They need to beat Team Feldman to start separating themselves from the rest of the pack.

Harris vs. Peragine

Winner: Peragine

Is it time to give up on a team I thought would go 13-9 before the season? I only had Peragine winning one less game and they're hot right now. I'm going with my team's division rival and then maybe Team Harris will start a winning streak next week.

Peragine vs. Lapine

Winner: Lapine

I think this is the game of the day. A sweep for either of these teams will firmly put them among the league's elite. Like I said before, I'm expecting Lapine's bats to be on fire this week, so I think they'll pull this one out. This could end up being the highest scoring game of the week as long as both teams aren't too tired from their earlier games.

Wednesday Predictions

Every Monday I'll post my predictions for Wednesday's games. Predictions for Sunday's matchups won't be posted until Friday or Saturday. There's no way me of knowing who is missing from each team, so unless I have that information, I'm going to assume that everyone on the roster will be there.


Wednesday, June 8 2011

Lapine vs. Applebaum

Winner: Lapine

Upsets happen all the time in our league, but it's hard to pick against Lapine. After losing two in a row, Team Lapine should be itching to get back on track. The highest scoring team in the league has only scored 11 runs in their last two games, so I fully expect a 15+ run performances versus Team Applebaum who has given up more than 12 runs per game.


Peragine vs. Goldfarb

Winner: Peragine

This should be a great matchup between two teams who are on nice winning streaks. So far I'm wrong about Goldfarb's season performance. Before the year started I thought their good defense wouldn't make up for their noticeable lack of power. Team Peragine, however, has lived up to strong pre- season expectations and currently has the third highest winning percentage. Although I have Goldfarb ranked one place higher on the power rankings, I'm leaning towards Peragine because the game is at Union Hill. I wouldn't be surprised if an over the fence homerun by Turner ends up being the difference in a tight ballgame.

Power Rankings 6/5/11

Every week I will post power rankings for our league. As of now, I plan on doing a separate ranking for the National and American League. I'm willing to change that if people would rather have a combined list. Like the team power rankings seen on ESPN and Sportline, a major component of where a team is placed will be based on overall record. However, a team's recent performance and overall runs scored/against will also factor into these rankings. In parenthesis I will put the previous week's ranking for the team. Since this is the first week, the number in parenthesis will be based on my pre-season projections.

6/6/11 update: I've decided to combine both leagues for the rankings:

Pre-Season Ranking in parenthesis.

1. Younger (6)
2. Pollock (5)
3. Spiegel (2)
4. Goldfarb (15)
5. Peragine (5)
6. Wallman (1)
7. Carlin (3)
8. Lapine (8)
9. Granese (13)
10. Sarcona (9)
11. Beilis (16)
12. Schefkind (10)
13. Harris (4)
14. Feldman (11)
15. Applebaum (14)
16. Randell (12)

Pre-Season Projected Standings

Two things are going to jump out about this post:

1) The "pre season" projected standings are being posted a third way through the season.

2) There's no commentary for the picks.

When I did my thorough projections right after the 2011 draft, it didn't occur to me I should create a blog for the league. This is the very first time these predictions are being made public! Originally, I graded each team based on offense and defense, however in typical me fashion, I have since lost all the grades. I promise to do a better job maintaining these papers next season.

Some of the picks already look like busts, while others look like they have a pretty good shot at coming true. It'll easy to get an idea of which teams I thought very highly of coming out of the draft. Of course, due to various reasons, rosters have changed since these projections were made. At the end of the season I'll compare my projections with the one on our league's website to see which did a better job. Enjoy:



Team Name (Team Number): Projected Record
National League East:

Spiegel (3): 14-8
Harris(2): 13-9
Younger(1): 12-10
Applebaum(4): 9-13

National League West:

Sarcona(7): 10-12
Granese(5): 9-13
Goldfarb(8): 8-14
Beilis(6): 7-15


American League East:

Pollock(11): 12-10
Peragine(9): 12-10
Schefkind(12): 10-12
Randell(10): 10-12

American League West:

Wallman(15): 15-7
Carlin(16): 13-9
Lapine(13): 12-10
Feldman(14): 10-12