Saturday, September 14, 2013

Round One Recap



Even though half of the first round series are still in progress, the headline for the 2013 playoffs seems to have already been written. It’s not enough to say that all four teams that swept the first round were underdogs. We’re talking about HUGE upsets (at least on paper). A 5-17 team defeating a 17-5 team; a 7-15 team defeating a 16-6 team; a 5-17 team coming one ridiculous catch away from sweeping a 16-6 team. Again, these aren’t just upsets. These are teams that were completely written off taking over and rewriting the season.
I saw a few of these developments coming, but certainly not others. I felt Team Younger had enough to upset the favored Team Beilis (although I thought they’d do it with more offense). And even though the difference in records made my team a decided underdog against Applebaum, I’ve known we’ve been playing like a different team over the past month.  But there are three things I never saw coming:

1.       Wallman getting swept: It’s pretty obvious why this is a shocker. Going into the playoffs, Wallman was the one team that didn’t come with any glaring flaws. You could look at other top teams like Jacoby and Applebaum and talk about stretches where they’ve looked pretty ordinary. Not true with Wallman until last week. Before the season, many people felt Marrone had one of the best teams in the league. That opinion dissipated pretty quickly once the season got into full swing, but now they’re reminding us what the fuss was about.

2.        Granese manhandling Feldman: A 10-12 team beating an 11-11 team is hardly big news, but the way it was done should open some eyes. Team Granese was the most dominating team in the first roun with 10-run victories each games. Like my feelings towards Marrone, I felt Granese had one of the better clubs before the season started; they were ranked 4th in my preseason power rankings. So far what I’m primarily seeing is that my pre-season opinions of teams holds more water than any evidence gathered during the season. Depending on what happens with all the Game 3s, there’s a chance that my #2-8 teams all advance to the second round. My pre-season #1 team(Wallman) ended up losing to my pre-season #2 team (Marrone). Maybe it’s not that big of an upset after all.

3.       Mamone almost sweeping Jacoby: Unlike victorious teams like Marrone, Granese, and Younger, I never had that high of an opinion of Team Mamone. This wasn’t a case of a pre-season favorite finally living up to billing. This was a case of a completely out of nowhere team defying all possible odds to slay a giant. And then Barth Frank makes an incredible, season-saving catchWith all these game 3s being played a week later, I think the momentum tilts back to the favorites. It’s possible Mamone can finish one of the more improbable first round upsets in league memory, but I think it’s more likely that game one just becomes a footnote in Jacoby’s quest for the championship.

Sunday Preview:
It’s impossible to preview Round Two with so many matchup possibilities, so I’ll just stick with a quick preview of the Game 3s.
Harris vs. Randell
Goldfarb vs. Lapine
Jacoby vs. Mamone
Carlin vs. Bykofsky

With the exception of Harris vs. Randell, all three underdogs let their opponent back in the series by dropping Game 2. As a result, the momentum completely shifts back in favor of the favored team going into game 3. My opinion towards these series hasn’t changed too much since I previewed these matchups last week.

By switching the field from Union Hill to Swim Club, Harris has a more decisive advantage over Randell.

Although I picked Lapine to win the championship, I don’t think any of their matchups will be easy. Goldfarb can easily pick them off here, but I still think Lapine will squeak by.

Mamone almost pulled off an incredible upset, but with a week in between games 2 and 3, I think order will be restored. Jacoby should take care of business tomorrow.

With Both Carlin and Bykofsky so wildly unpredictable, it’s futile predicting the result of any given game between them.  For the sake of consistency I’ll pick Carlin to win although I did like Bykofsky more in my pre-season rankings.

I’ll have more to say about Round Two once we know what the matchups are. By that time, game 1 will already be in the books so whoever wins game 1 will be the favorite to win the series.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

2013 Playoff Preview- Part 2



2013 Playoff Preview- Round One
National League:

Jacoby vs. Mamone- Team Mamone is my team’s kindred spirit this year. Together, we’ve been battered, bruised, and ridiculed on the way to paltry 5-17 records. Now it’s time for us to muster whatever is left of our confidence and try to pull off an upset. It wouldn’t erase an entire season of losing, but it would be worth something.

However, the chances of anything surprising happening in this series are pretty slim. Jacoby has been on the fast track to make the finals from Week one, and I don’t expect them to hit any speed bumps quite yet.

Prediction: Jacoby in 2

Harris vs. Randell- Winning last year’s championship and entering the playoffs on an 11-game winning streak must make Harris feel that any decision he makes is the right one. Is it a sign of hubris to pick Union Hill when he’s playing the league’s best Union Hill player? JZ was so dominant at Union Hill two years ago that there were cries from captains to remove Union Hill as a playoff option. Add James Dell’alba and Adam Rothschild to the mix, and Team Randell certainly becomes a much bigger threat on the friendly confines of UH.

And for Randell to have a chance, these aforementioned players will have to hit. Two years ago, JZ was given a free pass virtually every AB. We won because guys like me, Ross, Brock Hor, stepped up around him. Team Harris may still be the better team, but Team Randell has a better chance on Union Hill than they would have on any other.

Despite the favorable field choice, Harris remains a better team. An 11 game winning streak does not happen accidentally. There have been games in that bunch that could have gone the other way, but Team Harris has had a determination that most teams lack. I think that determination will be what leads them to pull out this series.

Prediction: Harris in 3

Feldman vs. Granese- It’s been a long time since either of these captains have been in a semi-finals. The good news is by playing each other in the first round, one of them will only be one round away. These teams are equally matched, so I can see it going either way. Before the season started, I thought Granese had the better team. I’ve been surprised though by the offensive production Feldman has shown, and I think if there’s a shocker that’s going to happen in the National League, it could be a miracle run by the Feldmans.

Predictions: Feldman in 2

Applebaum vs. Pollock- I’m not going to make my official pick for this series since it involves me, but one team is 15-7 and the other is 5-17. That being said, Team Pollock has some reason to feel like it has a chance to make things interesting. In our last five games we’ve beaten Applebaum and Beilis, and lost one run games to the very tough Team Jacoby and Team Harris.

Still, this is a 15-7 team playing a 5-17 team.


American League:

Wallman vs. Marrone- The pre-season favorites end the regular season as the favorites to win it all. Just like I said for the breakdown of Pollock/Applebaum, this is a team that dominated the regular season playing a team that was a major disappointment. Nothing unexpected should happen here.

Prediction: Wallman in 2

Carlin vs. Bykofsky- There was a point during the season when Team Bykofsky seemed on the verge of breaking through. They end the season with just one win in their last five including games where they’ve given up 22,19,22 runs. As I’ve said before, defense hasn’t been as big of an indicator as one would expect, but you can’t give up this many runs and win a playoff series.

The good news is they’re playing a Team Carlin who once upon a time owned an 11-3 record before losing 7 out of their last 8. Which of these reeling teams will pull it together to win the series? Carlin has had the upper hand during the regular season and despite their abysmal final 8 games, I think they’ll find a way to make it to the next round.

Prediction: Carlin in 3

Goldfarb vs. Lapine- If any team got an unfortunate  first round matchup, it’s Goldfarb. Against most AL teams, I think Goldfarb would have had a very good chance at advancing. Throughout various points in the season I thought they were on the verge of joining the elite. Inconsistent play, however, has kept them in the 4th spot and has them paired up against the Sleeper Team of the league. As I’ve said in my last post, Lapine is my pick to win the championship this year despite an 11-11 regular season record. A team’s fate can turn on a single play though. Considering I think this series should go three games, Goldfarb could very well get the right bounces that will silence a could be giant in Team Lapine.

Prediction: Lapine in 3


Beilis vs. Younger- If you’re looking for a possible week one upset, here is a good place to look.
Team Beilis is another team who at one point looked like a powerhouse, but now seems a lot more vulnerable. And while Beilis goes into the playoffs on a three game losing streak, Younger goes into the playoffs on a three game winning streak. If Jared Goldberg and Jason Younger can carry their incredible offensive seasons into the playoffs, they should be able to pull this one out.

Prediction: Younger in 3

Monday, September 2, 2013

2013 Playoff Preview Part One: Predicting a Champion



Before we get to part one of the playoff preview, let me first warn you that this year’s write-up will feature very few statistics. For most of the season, my computer could not be hooked up to the internet, so I could not record my typical data. It seems convenient that this shortage of information comes the same year my team tanked in the regular season, but there you have it. 

Part 1 will feature my championship prediction.
Part 2 will feature a small Round One Preview

Predicting a Champion:

Just for the fun of this argument, let’s assume certain past trends are indicators and not merely statistical randomness. When looking back at the past three champions, a few patterns stand out.

1.       All three winning teams had at least two rookies.
2.       All three winning teams featured zero players from the previous year’s championship club.
3.       All three winning teams were in the top half of runs scored.
4.       All three winning teams were in the bottom half for runs against.

All four of these facts are fascinating for going against some commonly accepted beliefs.
1.       Taking rookies in the draft is a big risk because it always takes a year to get used to the league.
2.       It’s important to take proven winners, so you can’t go wrong picking guys from last year’s championship team.
3.       Having a good offense is nice and all, but defense wins championships.

How can these trends be explained?

1.       Taking rookies is a big risk, but one that can pay huge dividends if you pick the right ones.  Drafting an unknown player in the 5th or 6th round who ends up playing like most teams’ 2nd or 3rd round picks can obviously give a team a boost.

2.       There is no way I can argue that drafting a player from last year’s championship team means you won’t win this year. This one is purely coincidental, but it’s fun to see how long the trend continues. Until it’s broken, I’ll use it as an indicator to predict a champion.

3.       #3 and 4 is intriguing for how counter intuitive they are. But here’s my theory:
Most teams with good defenses have to sacrifice a little bit of offense. As a result their teams will usually feature two dangerous hitters at most  and second half of the lineup that is more than serviceable in the field, but not much at the plate. 

This formula is great during the regular season, but there is a change in pitching strategy come playoff time. Lineup deficiencies are exposed more as great hitters are pitched around. All of a sudden a team that is anchored by two great offensive players now has to depend on all the guys around them to come through. The playoffs benefit deep lineups more than it benefits teams that thrive defensively. 

So where do these four trends leave us as far as predicting 2013’s champion?  Let’s look at which teams fall under each category:

1.       Teams that have at least two rookies:
Jacoby, Harris, Beilis, Lapine, Mamone

2.       Teams that have zero players from last year’s championship:
 Wallman, Goldfarb, Jacoby, Randell, Applebaum, Carlin, Granese, Beilis, Pollock, Mamone

3.       Teams in top half of runs scored:
Randell, Applebaum, Feldman, Wallman, Younger, Carlin, Jacoby, Lapine

4.       Teams in bottom half for runs against:
Marrone, Pollock, Randell, Feldman, Bykofsky, Younger, Lapine, Goldfarb

Analysis:

No team fits all three criteria, so sadly, at least one of these trends will not continue after this year. As I mentioned before, the one that seems most non-related to being a factor for winning the ultimate prize is #2, having a player on your team from last year’s roster. Therefore, if one of these trends was going to come to end this year, #2 would be my choice.
One team fits the all three other indicators and is thus, my official pick to win the 2013 Marlboro Mens Softball Championship:

Team Lapine

That’s right. I’m going out on a limb and picking a .500 team to win it all. Besides fitting most of the criteria mentioned in this article, Team Lapine is a team finally hitting their stride. Since July 10, they have a 6-2 record. They have a few rookies who are clearly among the bargains of the draft (Spoto and Goddard), feature a pitcher who’s been in the semi-finals the past three years (Herm Suarez), and only fails to fit all four indicators because Callow won the championship last year. 

2013 is The Year of Parity. 8 out of 16 teams this year finished .500 or one game away from .500. Compare that to only 4 teams in 2012, 5 teams in 2011, and 5 teams in 2010,  If this is indeed The Year of Parity, then it will only be fitting that the champions have  an 11-11 record in the regular season.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Power Rankings

1. Wallman (1)
2. Applebaum (3)
3. Jacoby (2)
4. Harris (4)
5. Lapine (7)
6. Beilis (5)
7. Carlin (6)
8. Goldfarb (8)
9. Younger (13)
10. Randell (10)
11. Granese (11)
12. Feldman (9)
13. Bykofsky (12)
14. Marrone (14)
15. Mamone (16)
16. Pollock (15)

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Power rankings

These were done days ago, but I forgot to post:

1. Wallman
2. Jacoby
3. Applebaum
4. Harris
5. Beilis
6. Carlin
7. Lapine
8. Goldfarb
9. Feldman
10. Randell
11. Granese
12. Bykofsky
13. Younger
14. Marrone
15. Pollock
16. Mamone

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Power rankings

Here are the updated rankings.

1. Wallman (1)
2. Jacoby (2)
3. Applebaum (3)
4. Carlin (4)
5. Harris (6)
6. Beilis (5)
7. Goldfarb (7)
8. Lapine (10)
9. Bykofsky (9)
10. Granese (8)
11. Randell (12)
12. Feldman (11)
13. Younger (13)
14. Marrone (14)
15. Mamone (16)
16. Pollock (15)

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Week 16 Power Rankings

1. Wallman (1)
2. Jacoby (2)
3. Applebaum (3)
4. Carlin (4)
5. Beilis (6)
6. Harris (8)
7. Goldfarb (5)
8. Granese (7)
9. Bykofsky (9)
10. Lapine (12)
11, Feldman (11)
12. Randell (10)
13. Younger (13)
14. Marrone (14)
15. Pollock (15)
16. Mamone (16)

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Week 15 Rankings

Week 15 Power Rankings:
There comes a time each season where it becomes pretty easy to divide teams into four groups:

The clear contenders
The teams who can join the elite group if they become just a little more consistent
The teams who may flash he occasional moments of promise but are mostly below average
The Teams who seem destined for a first round exit.

This year, the middle two categories are combining to form one giant group of average teams.
Here’s a stat the best illustrates the mediocrity thus far. Last year there were four teams that ended
with a run differential between -1.1 runs and 1.1 runs per game. This year there are NINE teams that fit
that criterion.

Teams that once looked destined for bad seasons are now in the middle of the pack (Granese, Harris,
Lapine) while some teams who once looked like clear elite teams have shown more inconsistency than
expected (Beilis, Goldfarb). At this point in the season, it’s hard to imagine teams moving into another
category, but there might be some big jumps within that middle group. There’s not a huge gap between
a team ranked #7 or 8 from a team ranked 12 or 13. The only possibility is if Team Carlin’s losing streak
continues and another team, most likely Beilis or Goldfarb catch fire.



This Week's Rankings:

The Elite:

1. Wallman (2)
2. Jacoby (3)
3. Applebaum (1)
4. Carlin (4)

The Almost Everybody Else Group

5. Goldfarb (6)
6. Beilis (5)
7. Granese (8)
8. Harris (12)
9. Bykofsky (10)
10. Randell (7)
11. Feldman (13)
12. Lapine (11)
13. Younger (9)

The “I Don’t Want To Say Anything Too Negative Because I’m On Team #15” Group


14. Marrone (14)
15. Pollock (15)
16. Mamone (16)

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Week 14 Predictions



Feldman vs. Beilis
Applebaum vs. Wallman
Randell vs. Lapine
Harris vs. Carlin
Jacoby vs. Younger
Pollock vs. Goldfarb
Granese vs. Marrone
Mamone vs. Bykofsky

In what’s clearly the #1 game of the week, the top two teams on the power rankings face off at 10:00 at the swim club. In a game that’s all about momentum, I expect Wallman to knock off the top rated Applebaum. If Team Applebaum should prove victorious then they will improve to 7-0 vs. American League teams. It’s possible that Applebaum can have a season in which they beat every team in the league. They’d have to go a perfect 8-0 vs. the AL and then exact revenge on the three teams NL teams who beat them thus far. It's something worth keeping an eye on.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Week 14 Power Rankings



Week 14 Power Rankings:

·        Applebaum’s lead is tenuous right now. With several teams on their trail, I doubt they’ll be able to hold onto the top spot the whole way through.
·        If I could put a tie for #9-13, I would. The final decision was based heavily by asking myself “If I had to play each time at full strength, who would be the most dangerous?” And that’s no slight to Team Feldman listed at #13. The placing may seem low, but for a team who is ranked ahead of only 3 other teams, I think they can still be tough to beat.
·        There is a HUGE dropoff after #13. Huge, huge, huge. Very big. Gigantic. It does not give me pleasure to say this considering my team is at #15. Horrible.

This Week’s Rankings:

  1. Applebaum (1)
  2. Wallman (3)
  3. Jacoby (4)
  4. Carlin (2)
  5. Beilis (5)
  6. Goldfarb (7)
  7. Randell (10)
  8. Granese (12)
  9. Younger (8)
  10. Bykofsky (6)
  11. Lapine (11)
  12. Harris (13)
  13. Feldman (9)
  14. Marrone (14)
  15. Pollock (15)
  16. Mamone (16)

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Week 13 Predictions



 Predicted Winners are in bold:

Younger vs. Applebaum
Mamone vs. Goldfarb
Lapine vs. Pollock
Granese vs. Bykofsky
Randell vs. Marrone
Jacoby vs. Carlin
Feldman vs. Wallman
Harris vs. Beilis

A Few Highlights:

·        Younger beating Applebaum is my upset pick of the week. Usually when an elite team loses their first game in a long time, the losses come in pairs or bunches. I think Team Applebaum may hit a brief rough patch before regaining their mojo.
·        Bykofsky has lost a couple of tough games in a row, so they need a win in order to maintain a positive team energy. Believe me, I know what it’s like to lose a couple of “How Did This Happen?” games in a row. For this kind of experience to be an aberration instead of the norm, Bykofsky needs to come back strong today.
·        Jacoby vs. Carlin is clearly the main even of the week. When Jacoby started 8-0, they had a few detractors. Now is the time to make their statement. On the flip side, Team Carlin has quietly built the best record and best run differential in the league. Advantage: Carlin

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Selecting The YITS Team



 Introduction by Mitch Pollock:

It may not be billed as an all-star game, but there’s no question that the Over/Under 35 game is an exhibition game that players on both sides want to win. And with the amount of talent included, let’s face it: It’s an all-star game. Selecting the rosters for this game is the hardest task in the league. Captains of the all-star game do not have to choose their players, but Sean Vader and Mike Paladino had to comb through the league’s elite and make some touch decisions. You’ll notice some awfully good players left off of these teams, but at the same time there isn’t a player who made the final cut who doesn’t belong.

So what goes through the mind of a captain making such hard roster decisions? Mike Paladino has been gracious enough to share his thorough thought process with the league. It is clear Mike is playing to win- as it should be. Like all other blog content, it is clear that this is all written in a good-natured tone.


Selecting the YITS Team:

By Mike Paladino

Welcome to the 35 & over Old Man Team!  Otherwise known as the YITS.  So this was written in true YITS fashion, at least from an Italian perspective...and because I'm an analyst by nature and by living.  You'll see below how I'm looking to handle the game on Sunday night...please let me know if there are any late cancellations or if anyone is hurt.

I was honored to be asked to captain a team of studs - you can't really go wrong when putting a team like this together.  Or so I thought until the Marlboro Softball peanut gallery started chiming in.  I get along with everybody I've ever played with and against in this league (except for one incident last year when a guy spiked me), so it was really difficult be the guy to make these calls.  But someone had to do this and I tried to be extremely objective (that's also a requirement in my day job).

So in the spirit of giving the league what keeps it vibrant (chatter and yapping at Bagel Talk and along UH fences, and electronic content for blogs and cyberspace), I outlined how I went about picking the team...and how the decisions came to be because I'm tired of answering the "why didn't you pick this guy" questions.

When I thought about how to put this team together, I started with a few principles.  I believe you have to prove it/earn it every year and you should be rewarded, so performance up to selection time was a factor (not the only factor).  But it's also not an all-star game, so we had to build a team, not necessarily pick the players that would be drafted the highest or have best stats, though obviously there is a correlation.

The reason we lost last year was simple - we didn't hit and didn't score.  Yes, this is definitely a fun game, but I also wanna f'n win.  Everyone tells me we're underdogs, but F the peanut gallery...let's show the Young Guns that the vet All Stars still have a pretty full tank.

In a game like this, it is much easier to build a good defensive team on both Over/Under, which means offense is much tougher to come by.  So a main theme was that I wanted excellent defense, but not excess defense.  Also, the fact we're playing at UH was a definitely a factor in picking this team...it would have been different if we played at a different fenceless field (maybe we do that at some point in the future?).  With such strong D, I believe we need to increase our chances to score where they can't play defense, so that influenced the roster.

This led me to pick the team in 4 buckets of players and means we won't rotate players as much as if I picked more guys valued for their glove as much or more than their bat.

I have not yet made up the lineup.

Pitchers - wanted 2
Decision #1 was determining that to give us the best chance to beat the Young Guns, we would benefit from 2 pitchers so that they won't see the same P every time up.  When you have 2 awesome Ps like Joey K & Clamp that also provide the type of offense they do, this was my easiest and first decision...every other decision followed this.  I'll talk to these two separately and manage how we're going to rotate.

Dual-threat IFs - wanted 4 for 3 positions
SS - Gluck
3B - Granese
2B - Paladino
Rotate in - Younger

Defensive gameplan: I will manage this rotation during the game.  Starters will get majority of innings and finish a close game, JY will mix in at 2B/3B, Matt and I may get an inning or two at SS.
Others in mix:  D Kay, Barlow
Comment:  This was the toughest bucket to call.  Noel was the only no-brainer.  It became complicated by the fact that the other top fielding SSs (me, Granese, and DK) are all having ok but not great offensive seasons, while solid defensive options (Younger, Barlow) are hitting the shit out of the ball.  Decided we couldn't afford to not have 3 SS gloves and couldn't afford to not have 1 of the better offensive options, so I picked those that were having the better offensive seasons...me and Granese over DK and Younger over Barlow.

Dual-threat OFs - wanted 5 for 4 positions
LF - Panassidi 
LCF - Zaretsky 
RCF - Roland
RF - Spoto
Rotate in - Golden

Defensive gameplan:  I'm asking JZ to manage the OF rotation during game depending on situation and who's coming up for them.
Others in mix:  Schef, Murphy
Comment:  This group gets much deeper next year when Callow and Goldstein hit the Over threshold, if the website is correct.  JZ is the only no- brainer here.  Roland is pretty close to it due to consistency and so is Golden at this field due to UH power.  Spoto was my one sight unseen pick, relying on Callow's scouting report and the numbers he's putting up this yr...and after seeing him play last weekend vs Feldman, I'm confident this was the right call.  He's going to be drafted probably a mid-2 next year.  So this call was ultimately Spoto and KP over Schef and Murphy.  Very tough call here...familiarity played a role with KP...played with him on a semifinal team w Beilis and never played w Schef or Murphy, so less well known to me.

Pure Hitters C/1B - wanted the best 4 with no regard for position, UH threat and 1B experience a plus
1B - Greenspan 
C - Applebaum
Rotate in - Schindleheim
Rotate in - Hor 

Others in mix:  The "Others" noted above...and Newman, Lenny, Dell'Alba, Ronnie C, Donnie, Bobby B, AP
Defensive gameplan:  I'm going to ask Apples to manage the 1B/C defensive rotation during the game.  Adam/Apples, talk to JZ during game for an inning in the OF, I'll look to get Brock an inning at 3B, and we'll probably keep Rick at these 2 positions.
Comment:  This is where the excellent, but not excess theme comes in.  You guys were selected purely for your potent offense and/or UH power threat...and that's not meant to show any disrespect to your gloves, which are still very good.  But in a game like this, we're generally going to have better options at your normal positions.  I also wanted Newman b/c he actually plays 1B and is a strong UH threat.  Essentially, the call was that we need Adam and Brock for their UH power and great offense...and Apples and Rick could be the best pure hitters in the league.

FINAL NOTE - I think it's clear that I believe Apples and Younger should probably be rated mid-2s next year, with Brock as a good comp.