Saturday, September 14, 2013

Round One Recap



Even though half of the first round series are still in progress, the headline for the 2013 playoffs seems to have already been written. It’s not enough to say that all four teams that swept the first round were underdogs. We’re talking about HUGE upsets (at least on paper). A 5-17 team defeating a 17-5 team; a 7-15 team defeating a 16-6 team; a 5-17 team coming one ridiculous catch away from sweeping a 16-6 team. Again, these aren’t just upsets. These are teams that were completely written off taking over and rewriting the season.
I saw a few of these developments coming, but certainly not others. I felt Team Younger had enough to upset the favored Team Beilis (although I thought they’d do it with more offense). And even though the difference in records made my team a decided underdog against Applebaum, I’ve known we’ve been playing like a different team over the past month.  But there are three things I never saw coming:

1.       Wallman getting swept: It’s pretty obvious why this is a shocker. Going into the playoffs, Wallman was the one team that didn’t come with any glaring flaws. You could look at other top teams like Jacoby and Applebaum and talk about stretches where they’ve looked pretty ordinary. Not true with Wallman until last week. Before the season, many people felt Marrone had one of the best teams in the league. That opinion dissipated pretty quickly once the season got into full swing, but now they’re reminding us what the fuss was about.

2.        Granese manhandling Feldman: A 10-12 team beating an 11-11 team is hardly big news, but the way it was done should open some eyes. Team Granese was the most dominating team in the first roun with 10-run victories each games. Like my feelings towards Marrone, I felt Granese had one of the better clubs before the season started; they were ranked 4th in my preseason power rankings. So far what I’m primarily seeing is that my pre-season opinions of teams holds more water than any evidence gathered during the season. Depending on what happens with all the Game 3s, there’s a chance that my #2-8 teams all advance to the second round. My pre-season #1 team(Wallman) ended up losing to my pre-season #2 team (Marrone). Maybe it’s not that big of an upset after all.

3.       Mamone almost sweeping Jacoby: Unlike victorious teams like Marrone, Granese, and Younger, I never had that high of an opinion of Team Mamone. This wasn’t a case of a pre-season favorite finally living up to billing. This was a case of a completely out of nowhere team defying all possible odds to slay a giant. And then Barth Frank makes an incredible, season-saving catchWith all these game 3s being played a week later, I think the momentum tilts back to the favorites. It’s possible Mamone can finish one of the more improbable first round upsets in league memory, but I think it’s more likely that game one just becomes a footnote in Jacoby’s quest for the championship.

Sunday Preview:
It’s impossible to preview Round Two with so many matchup possibilities, so I’ll just stick with a quick preview of the Game 3s.
Harris vs. Randell
Goldfarb vs. Lapine
Jacoby vs. Mamone
Carlin vs. Bykofsky

With the exception of Harris vs. Randell, all three underdogs let their opponent back in the series by dropping Game 2. As a result, the momentum completely shifts back in favor of the favored team going into game 3. My opinion towards these series hasn’t changed too much since I previewed these matchups last week.

By switching the field from Union Hill to Swim Club, Harris has a more decisive advantage over Randell.

Although I picked Lapine to win the championship, I don’t think any of their matchups will be easy. Goldfarb can easily pick them off here, but I still think Lapine will squeak by.

Mamone almost pulled off an incredible upset, but with a week in between games 2 and 3, I think order will be restored. Jacoby should take care of business tomorrow.

With Both Carlin and Bykofsky so wildly unpredictable, it’s futile predicting the result of any given game between them.  For the sake of consistency I’ll pick Carlin to win although I did like Bykofsky more in my pre-season rankings.

I’ll have more to say about Round Two once we know what the matchups are. By that time, game 1 will already be in the books so whoever wins game 1 will be the favorite to win the series.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

2013 Playoff Preview- Part 2



2013 Playoff Preview- Round One
National League:

Jacoby vs. Mamone- Team Mamone is my team’s kindred spirit this year. Together, we’ve been battered, bruised, and ridiculed on the way to paltry 5-17 records. Now it’s time for us to muster whatever is left of our confidence and try to pull off an upset. It wouldn’t erase an entire season of losing, but it would be worth something.

However, the chances of anything surprising happening in this series are pretty slim. Jacoby has been on the fast track to make the finals from Week one, and I don’t expect them to hit any speed bumps quite yet.

Prediction: Jacoby in 2

Harris vs. Randell- Winning last year’s championship and entering the playoffs on an 11-game winning streak must make Harris feel that any decision he makes is the right one. Is it a sign of hubris to pick Union Hill when he’s playing the league’s best Union Hill player? JZ was so dominant at Union Hill two years ago that there were cries from captains to remove Union Hill as a playoff option. Add James Dell’alba and Adam Rothschild to the mix, and Team Randell certainly becomes a much bigger threat on the friendly confines of UH.

And for Randell to have a chance, these aforementioned players will have to hit. Two years ago, JZ was given a free pass virtually every AB. We won because guys like me, Ross, Brock Hor, stepped up around him. Team Harris may still be the better team, but Team Randell has a better chance on Union Hill than they would have on any other.

Despite the favorable field choice, Harris remains a better team. An 11 game winning streak does not happen accidentally. There have been games in that bunch that could have gone the other way, but Team Harris has had a determination that most teams lack. I think that determination will be what leads them to pull out this series.

Prediction: Harris in 3

Feldman vs. Granese- It’s been a long time since either of these captains have been in a semi-finals. The good news is by playing each other in the first round, one of them will only be one round away. These teams are equally matched, so I can see it going either way. Before the season started, I thought Granese had the better team. I’ve been surprised though by the offensive production Feldman has shown, and I think if there’s a shocker that’s going to happen in the National League, it could be a miracle run by the Feldmans.

Predictions: Feldman in 2

Applebaum vs. Pollock- I’m not going to make my official pick for this series since it involves me, but one team is 15-7 and the other is 5-17. That being said, Team Pollock has some reason to feel like it has a chance to make things interesting. In our last five games we’ve beaten Applebaum and Beilis, and lost one run games to the very tough Team Jacoby and Team Harris.

Still, this is a 15-7 team playing a 5-17 team.


American League:

Wallman vs. Marrone- The pre-season favorites end the regular season as the favorites to win it all. Just like I said for the breakdown of Pollock/Applebaum, this is a team that dominated the regular season playing a team that was a major disappointment. Nothing unexpected should happen here.

Prediction: Wallman in 2

Carlin vs. Bykofsky- There was a point during the season when Team Bykofsky seemed on the verge of breaking through. They end the season with just one win in their last five including games where they’ve given up 22,19,22 runs. As I’ve said before, defense hasn’t been as big of an indicator as one would expect, but you can’t give up this many runs and win a playoff series.

The good news is they’re playing a Team Carlin who once upon a time owned an 11-3 record before losing 7 out of their last 8. Which of these reeling teams will pull it together to win the series? Carlin has had the upper hand during the regular season and despite their abysmal final 8 games, I think they’ll find a way to make it to the next round.

Prediction: Carlin in 3

Goldfarb vs. Lapine- If any team got an unfortunate  first round matchup, it’s Goldfarb. Against most AL teams, I think Goldfarb would have had a very good chance at advancing. Throughout various points in the season I thought they were on the verge of joining the elite. Inconsistent play, however, has kept them in the 4th spot and has them paired up against the Sleeper Team of the league. As I’ve said in my last post, Lapine is my pick to win the championship this year despite an 11-11 regular season record. A team’s fate can turn on a single play though. Considering I think this series should go three games, Goldfarb could very well get the right bounces that will silence a could be giant in Team Lapine.

Prediction: Lapine in 3


Beilis vs. Younger- If you’re looking for a possible week one upset, here is a good place to look.
Team Beilis is another team who at one point looked like a powerhouse, but now seems a lot more vulnerable. And while Beilis goes into the playoffs on a three game losing streak, Younger goes into the playoffs on a three game winning streak. If Jared Goldberg and Jason Younger can carry their incredible offensive seasons into the playoffs, they should be able to pull this one out.

Prediction: Younger in 3

Monday, September 2, 2013

2013 Playoff Preview Part One: Predicting a Champion



Before we get to part one of the playoff preview, let me first warn you that this year’s write-up will feature very few statistics. For most of the season, my computer could not be hooked up to the internet, so I could not record my typical data. It seems convenient that this shortage of information comes the same year my team tanked in the regular season, but there you have it. 

Part 1 will feature my championship prediction.
Part 2 will feature a small Round One Preview

Predicting a Champion:

Just for the fun of this argument, let’s assume certain past trends are indicators and not merely statistical randomness. When looking back at the past three champions, a few patterns stand out.

1.       All three winning teams had at least two rookies.
2.       All three winning teams featured zero players from the previous year’s championship club.
3.       All three winning teams were in the top half of runs scored.
4.       All three winning teams were in the bottom half for runs against.

All four of these facts are fascinating for going against some commonly accepted beliefs.
1.       Taking rookies in the draft is a big risk because it always takes a year to get used to the league.
2.       It’s important to take proven winners, so you can’t go wrong picking guys from last year’s championship team.
3.       Having a good offense is nice and all, but defense wins championships.

How can these trends be explained?

1.       Taking rookies is a big risk, but one that can pay huge dividends if you pick the right ones.  Drafting an unknown player in the 5th or 6th round who ends up playing like most teams’ 2nd or 3rd round picks can obviously give a team a boost.

2.       There is no way I can argue that drafting a player from last year’s championship team means you won’t win this year. This one is purely coincidental, but it’s fun to see how long the trend continues. Until it’s broken, I’ll use it as an indicator to predict a champion.

3.       #3 and 4 is intriguing for how counter intuitive they are. But here’s my theory:
Most teams with good defenses have to sacrifice a little bit of offense. As a result their teams will usually feature two dangerous hitters at most  and second half of the lineup that is more than serviceable in the field, but not much at the plate. 

This formula is great during the regular season, but there is a change in pitching strategy come playoff time. Lineup deficiencies are exposed more as great hitters are pitched around. All of a sudden a team that is anchored by two great offensive players now has to depend on all the guys around them to come through. The playoffs benefit deep lineups more than it benefits teams that thrive defensively. 

So where do these four trends leave us as far as predicting 2013’s champion?  Let’s look at which teams fall under each category:

1.       Teams that have at least two rookies:
Jacoby, Harris, Beilis, Lapine, Mamone

2.       Teams that have zero players from last year’s championship:
 Wallman, Goldfarb, Jacoby, Randell, Applebaum, Carlin, Granese, Beilis, Pollock, Mamone

3.       Teams in top half of runs scored:
Randell, Applebaum, Feldman, Wallman, Younger, Carlin, Jacoby, Lapine

4.       Teams in bottom half for runs against:
Marrone, Pollock, Randell, Feldman, Bykofsky, Younger, Lapine, Goldfarb

Analysis:

No team fits all three criteria, so sadly, at least one of these trends will not continue after this year. As I mentioned before, the one that seems most non-related to being a factor for winning the ultimate prize is #2, having a player on your team from last year’s roster. Therefore, if one of these trends was going to come to end this year, #2 would be my choice.
One team fits the all three other indicators and is thus, my official pick to win the 2013 Marlboro Mens Softball Championship:

Team Lapine

That’s right. I’m going out on a limb and picking a .500 team to win it all. Besides fitting most of the criteria mentioned in this article, Team Lapine is a team finally hitting their stride. Since July 10, they have a 6-2 record. They have a few rookies who are clearly among the bargains of the draft (Spoto and Goddard), feature a pitcher who’s been in the semi-finals the past three years (Herm Suarez), and only fails to fit all four indicators because Callow won the championship last year. 

2013 is The Year of Parity. 8 out of 16 teams this year finished .500 or one game away from .500. Compare that to only 4 teams in 2012, 5 teams in 2011, and 5 teams in 2010,  If this is indeed The Year of Parity, then it will only be fitting that the champions have  an 11-11 record in the regular season.