Week Two Predictions

Jacoby vs. Granese- We’re only one week into the season, but already I’m getting the feeling that Jacoby has the best chance at winning the championship. This week, however, Jacoby is missing a couple of guys at key positions which may present a problem against a strong Jiffy Lube club. Jacoby will have a great season, but I’m going with Granese this week.  

Pollock vs. Harris- Team Pollock has a lot to prove this game. We’re playing against the person who predicted us to have a bad offense, bad defense, and for good measure bad speed. Both teams will be looking to get on track and put the troubles of Week One behind them.

Lapine vs. Beilis- Both teams here are very similar. Both are highlighted by power hitting top picks and supplemented by rookies who look like they’re going to be draft day bargains. With these two teams being pretty similar I’m going to give the edge to Lapine.  

Goldfarb vs. Wallman- Without question, Team Wallman’s defeat was the biggest first week shocker. And while an 0-2 start wouldn’t permanently doom the team, it’d be surprising if such a consensus pick to be one of the best stumbled badly out of the gate.

Mamone vs. Feldman- We could be looking at a 2-1 game here. Although I’m picking Mamone, the pick really goes to whatever team has all of their main guys present.

Carlin vs. Bykofsky- I might be getting very impatient with my 2013 sleeper. The good news for Team Bykofsky is that the defense shut down Lapine over the second half of last week’s game. They’ll have their hands full this week too, but if they are worthy of being this year’s surprise team(and I think they still are), then they’ll take care of business.

Younger vs. Marrone- Great matchup. This isn’t the 2012 Younger team, so playing on Union Hill should give them an edge by having Jared Goldberg.. On the other hand, Team Marrone has such a deep lineup also built for UH. Both teams are trying to avoid starting 0-2 and although we’re looking at two teams who eventually will have winning records, Team Marrone will be the ones who get to .500 first.

Applebaum vs. Randell- Speaking of Union Hill, the team that should benefit the most from the fences get to play there the first three weeks of the season! Randell has a tough UH matchup next week, but I think they’ll take advantage of their strengths in Week 2.

  

Week One Predictions

Here are my predictions for the first week of the season. Predicted winners are in bold. I won’t predict winners in my team’s games.

Lapine v. Bykofsky- This game features two of the most intriguing storylines of the season. One is the newly designed Marlboro Swim Club infield. Now that it is similar to the size of the dreaded Municipal infield, will it produce fewer runs? The second storyline is whether or not the strategy of picking a pitcher in the 4^th round will pay dividends. Both teams have started a potential paradigm shift in the league if it leads to a championship. After playing with Herm for two years, I am confident that picking him in the 4^th is a move that will pay off. However, they’re playing my sleeper pick of the year in week one, so I have to go with them. I think Team Bykofsky will do enough to win a close 8-6 game.

Younger v. Beilis- If this were 2012, Younger v. Beilis would have been very easy to pick. And while I give the slight edge to Younger this week, I think Beilis will have his best regular season in a few years.

Goldfarb v. Marrone- I think Team Marrone has one of the best lineups in the league. They should jump out of the gate with an impressive showing in week one. Prediction: Team Marrone will score the most runs in the league this week.

Carlin v. Wallman- Team Carlin has a lot of talent, but I think this could be a very special year for the Wallman crew.

Pollock v. Granese- Team Pollock should still be able to score our share of runs even without our captain, Matt Pollock. Two challenges this week are the dreaded municipal field and a very good defensive opponent. Even though I can’t pick a winner in this game, I predict a combined total of 12 runs or fewer to be scored.

Applebaum v. Harris- With question marks at many of the important positions, Team Harris could end up surprising me this year. For now I have to see it to believe it.

Mamone v. Randell- Just like last year, Team Randell is built for Union Hill.

Jacoby v. Feldman- They may be missing their captain, but Team Jacoby is deep enough to overcome the injury- at least for game #1.

Pre-Season Power Rankings

These will be the only power rankings until we have our first Wednesday night game. I don’t want to be too reactionary to the first one or two games of the season. My opinions of some teams have improved since my Predictions post after seeing them in person (Beilis) while others were slightly downgraded due to early injuries(get better Jacoby). I look forward to updating these rankings weekly once the season is in full swing. 

Let the rankings begin:

1. Wallman
2. Marrone
3. Younger
4. Granese
5. Jacoby
6. Bykofsky
7. Lapine
8. Pollock
9. Carlin
10. Goldfarb
11. Beilis
12. Applebaum
13. Randell
14. Feldman
15. Harris
16. Mamone

2013 League Projections

2013 League Predictions by Mitch Pollock

It’s been a long winter, but finally the 2013 softball season is here. This is being published on the final night living in my Freehold home. As I write this, I think back to all the fond memories of making some horrendous picks from this computer (Predicting Younger would be the worst team in the league) to some of bold ones that paid off (Jordan Krant’s breakout year). Here’s hoping that this year’s edition will be dead on accurate. As always, I hope everyone enjoys reading the blog, and uses it to start some softball dialogue. For some reason it is hard to actually post on this site, so feel free to post comments on the Marlboro softball facebook page. Good luck to everyone, especially Team Pollock.

American League:

Team Lapine- Great power to start the draft when Dave Silverberg is playing, but the numerous missed games will obviously cost the team some wins. A couple of good value picks in the second half of the draft makes this offense formidable even when it gets towards the bottom. Infield defense may be a concern, but Herm will take care of many of those problems since he’s perhaps the best fielding pitcher in the league.

Overall Record- 12-10

Team Carlin- Last year I (and many others) felt Carlin had one of the best teams going into the season. Obviously, their 10-12 record and early bounce from the playoffs made last year a huge disappointment. This year’s squad is similar to 2012’s team in several ways. Does that mean they’re headed for a similar mediocre season? The team can hit, but I actually like their offense better last year. The bold move to draft a pitcher and move Ronnie to the OF might be what makes this team more successful than last year’s team, but it might make their offense worse. For now I’m only predicting a moderate change.

Overall Record- 11-11

Team Goldfarb- Despite Alex Goldfarb in the OF and Nick Martino at short, I think this team can have some defensive issues. I can’t believe Greenspan fell to the third round (well technically it could be the 2^nd round since Goldfarb had last 2^nd round pick and first third round pick). Greenspan was one of the best picks in the draft and is part of what should be a very powerful heart of the lineup. I just have my doubts that this will be enough to make them a top team.

Overall record 10-12

Team Younger- Last year’s formula of fielding the best defense possible was very successful until the finals. I don’t think the lack of offense should be blamed for falling just a bit short of the championship. I thought Younger would repeat that same “defense first” philosophy this year, but I think he went an even better route. Rather than drafting the best defensive SS just for the sake of defense, he got the best offensive player left. The key question will be is there enough offense in the second half of the lineup to make up for the downgrade in defense from last year? It’ll be nearly impossible to repeat what was a historically great regular season in 2012, but at least Younger should another very competitive team.  

Overall Record 13-9

Team Bykofsky- The Bykofskys are always part of a winning team, and I expect that trend to continue now that Justin is captain. This team can hit. They won’t hit a lot of homeruns, but with a team that includes the Bykofskys, Messinger, Krant, and Kastner as well as late draft value picks such as Mike Iorio and Joshi, the lineup should keep turning over. Like Lapine, Bykofsky surprised many by taking a pitcher in the 4^th even though they have a Cy Young award winning pitcher on the roster. This move will boost the infield defense by shifting Rob to third, but would they have been better off getting another good defensive outfielder instead In the end, I think Bykofsky will figure out how to make it work. I’m going against the grain here, but this is one of the best teams in the league.

Overall Record- 13-9

Team Wallman- I’m sure there aren’t a lot of situations that would make a good fielding shortstop draft another player at that position thus forcing himself to shift spots in the infield.  We’ve officially reached the point where the Brocks, probably rightfully so, are the automatic first picks in the draft. What follows is a solid draft featuring a nice blend of power and defense. And while I would’ve gone in a slightly different direction with some of the late picks, I think grabbing the indoor softball MVP Sal Sicurella was a savvy move.

Overall Record- 14-8

Team Marrone- I’m impressed. I’d like to think that my brother has set the standard for putting together the best hitting teams, but Team Marrone wins that award this year. This is a team that will cause problems even when it gets towards the 7-8-9 part of the lineup. Naturally, to build this kind of powerhouse means defense has to be sacrificed a little bit. But as a subscriber to the theory that it’s more important to have a balanced offensive team than it is to have the best defensive team, I think Marrone will be tough to beat.

Overall Record- 14-8

Team Beilis- I feel like this can be said every year, but once again I think Beilis will have trouble competing in a very difficult American League. There’s no question that Jason Taub and Mike Conti make for a scary 3-4 in a lineup, but I don’t see many threats elsewhere. And for a team that will most likely have some offensive deficiencies, I don’t see enough gold glovers to even out the balance. Oh well. Nobody knows it better than Beilis that it all comes down to the post season anyway.

Overall Record- 8-14

National League:

Team Pollock- Once again, we have a team that should be able to score runs in bunches. Besides having a strong top of the lineup highlighted by one of the best all-around players in Glen Roland, Matt bolstered the club with additions like the reigning batting champ Darren Freeman, OBP machine Jerry Silberman, and late round power source Jeff Turtz. Defense may be an issue, especially with Matt out a few weeks, but playing musical positions is something we know well. Besides, as a certain Pollock likes to point out, we DID go 15-7 with Ross as our SS in 2011. You would think that two seasons of massive success would earn Matt the benefit of the doubt, but apparently there are still a few skeptics remaining. Once Matt comes back from his broken finger and people get settled into their positions, this team will be as dangerous as Pollock’s teams from the last two years. We’re looking forward to having a successful season with our dad back behind the plate.

Editor’s Note: Glen Roland is now our SS. Ross is back in the OF.  

Overall Record: 12-10

Team Jacoby- Time for a fun fact. The last three Marlboro Softball Champions had two interesting things in common:

1.      They had at least two rookies on the team.

2.      They had no players from the previous year’s championship team.

Out of the three teams that fit these criteria, the one that has the best chance at continuing this trend is Jacoby (the other two teams are Mamone and Beilis). Clearly, Jacoby would not make the same mistake twice as he picked a solid strategy of taking as many guys from last year’s best team as possible (Kay, Frank, Lurie). Where last year’s Younger team lacked some pop, Jacoby made sure to address the need by getting two of the best- Schindelheim and Golden. This is one of the league’s best teams.

Overall Record: 13-9

Team Mamone- By drafting Jordan Priess in the first round, Mamone is certainly going to try to make many hitters change their swing to go opposite field. But as Bobby Harris so astutely pointed out, what happens during all the missed games? More worrisome is the lack of offense. As great as Priess is defensively, he does not carry the offensive load as much as most other first round picks. This wouldn’t be a problem if some of the later picks compensated for the lack of pop, but unless the two new rookies step up big time, I think this team will struggle to score runs to consistently compete.

Overall Record: 8-14

Team Applebaum- So this is where captains go when they no longer want to run softball teams. Too bad they didn’t draft Spiegel as well. This is a team that is going to have to score a ton of runs with the top of the lineup, which shouldn’t be a problem. Applebaum remains undervalued as a third rounder, and to get Lenny in the 4^th round is a great boost to the offense. I could be proven wrong (as I often am), but the bottom of this team is going to have troule scoring. And other than Peragine, this is going to be pretty much a station to station club on the bases. With a lot of fiery personalities on the team, I wonder what the atmosphere will be like if the team starts off slowly.

Overall Record: 9-13

Team Granese- After a tough 2012, Granese is hoping to have a full 13 for most games. Showing up is half the battle, as Matt learned last season. This is a very balanced team that should feature nice outfield defense to go along with a strong offense from top to bottom. If Polzer can bat close to .600 like his first two seasons, and Jay Rosenthal can continue to be a nice value pick as a 6^th rounder, then this will be a team that can go deep in the playoffs.

Overall Record: 13-9

Team Feldman- Sorry Glenn for taking Roland. I can vouch for Matt the fact that he was high on our radar for months.  Picking the best defensive shortstop in the league is not a bad consolation prize, but picking another shortstop in the second round is  a controversial move. I’m not sure how that will pay off as it will weaken your outfield defense. Attendance will be an issue (and the only reason Glenn was able to get Paladino in the second round), but I expect future ROY Lazzaro to be a monster pick and pick up some of the slack. Still, several players from the second half of the draft will have to step up in order for this to turn into a contender.

Overall Record: 9-13

Team Randell- Is history repeating itself? After last year’s rough regular season that features Brad at SS, and JZ and Rothschild in the OF, Randell drafts the same exact combination this year. The good news is that if Dell’alba can return to his 2010-11 self, then this is the most potent 1-5 in the league. I think the lack of defense, however, will be hard to overcome. There’s little reason to think that 2013 won’t be similar to 2012 . The good news is they may be getting a break August 4^th when they play a team Pollock that is missing all the Pollocks and Ferrarese.

Overall Record: 9-13

Team Harris- Is this mad genius or just mad crazy? Right now I’m thinking the latter. That’s not to say I think the roster is filled with bad names. I like several of the players on this team, but they could have been drafted at least one round later which would have allowed for a stronger team overall. For a captain who is very keen on noticing others’ lack of positional depth, it’s curious that there is not a proven shortstop or pitcher on this club. Still, Vaccaro can easily prove to be the best player in the league, and Kushner can build on his tremendous post season to have a great regular season as well. Even if these pieces come together, there will be several missing pieces in the puzzle. We’d also like to thank Harris in advance for providing plenty of material for pre -game “Nobody Believed In Us” speeches.

Overall Record: 8-14