Does Draft Position Matter?

With the draft coming up, captains are busy trying to plan for every hypothetical situation. "If I have an early first round pick, do I go with option A or option B? What if I pick at the end vs. in the middle?" At this stage captains plan for every scenario because they don't have any idea (for the most part) if they are picking early or late in the first round. The possibilities start to come into a little more focus when captains are told on Bensi Night if they are picking 1-8 or 9-16 (R.I.P. Bensi Night). All of a sudden, half the planned scenarios are pretty much meaningless unless you work out a trade.

But does draft position matter? Here are the overall winning percentages that correlates to where teams picked from 2009-2014.[1] I won't offer any analysis this time around. I'll let the numbers do the talking.

  

1: .534 (71-62)

2: .474 (63-70)

3: .504 (67-66)

4: .602 (80-53)

5: .391 (52-81)

6: .526 (70-63)

7: .598 (79-53)

8: .579 (77-56)

9: .504 (67-66)

10: .414 (55-78)

11: .421 (56-77)

12: .455 (60-72)

13: .504 (67-66)

14: .429 (57-76)

15: .579 (77-56)

16: .489 (65-68)

Draft Positions 1-8: .526

Draft Positions 9-16: .474

Draft Position of Championship Teams By Year:

2009: 7

2010: 16

2011: 7

2012: 4

2013: 3

2014: 8

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[1] I started with 2009 because that is the first year where the draft was not dominated by protected picks. For instance, in 2008 it did not matter much where a team drafted in the first round because 12 out of 16 teams came in with a protected first round pick.

Captain of the Decade

We’ve reached the halfway mark of the decade. As somebody who is fascinated by lists like “Greatest movies of the decade”, I think it would be fun to start the conversation of who is best positioned now to win “Best Captain of the Decade”. Of course there is no set formula so opinions will vary. When considering this title, I feel the following should be considered in order of importance:

1. Championships won
2. Other Playoff Success(finals/semi finals appearances)
3. Regular Season Success

Is crowning a winner as simple as awarding the captain who wins the most championships? Some may say yes, and maybe they’re right. Because the playoffs can be a crapshoot, and we get more data from regular season games, I think the first 22 games we play should be taken into some consideration also. Before taking a look at individual captains and weighing their status for potential Captain of the Decade, let’s take a look at a few lists.

Current Captains’ Regular Season Winning Percentages 2010-2014

1. Jacoby .606(40-26)
2. Carlin .591 (65-45)
3. Wallman .573(63-47)
4. Goldfarb  .564 (62-48)
5. Younger .545 (60-50)
6. Pollock .534 (47-41)
7. Applebaum .527 (58-52)

     7. Lapine .527 (58-52)

     9. Feldman .486 (53-56)

    10. Beilis .482 (53-57)

    11. Harris .464 (51-59)

    12. Randell .459 (50-59)

    13. Granese .427 (47-63)

    14.  Bykofsky .409 (18-26)

    15. Marrone .295 (13-31)

Current Captains’ Playoff Winning Percentages 2010-2014

1. Jacoby .667 (10-5)
2. Pollock .625 (15-9)
3. Marrone .583 (7-5)
4. Lapine .565 (13-10)
5. Goldfarb .556 (15-12)
6. Beilis .545 (18-15)
7. Harris .519 (14-13)

   7. Younger .519 (14-13)

   9. Applebaum .500 (9-9)

   9. Randell .500 (12-12)

   9. Bykofsky .500 (5-5)

   12. Wallman .429 (9-12)

   13. Carlin .389 (7-11)

   14. Granese .333 (5-10)

    15. Feldman .214 (3-11)

Now it’s time to take a look at a few captains who have made a strong case for “Captain of the Decade” based on the first five years. Obviously this discussion can(and most likely) will change drastically over the next five years. These are the captains, though, that have a head start at capturing the prize.

Justin Jacoby:

Pros: It was a bumpy first year, but phenomenal back to back regular seasons and one championship puts him on the short list of captains who can claim they’ve had the best first half.

Cons: He was only captain for three of the five years, and his two non-championship seasons ended in first round exits (Almost three first round exits: See Barth Frank Catch).

Matt Pollock:

Pros: One of only two captains this decade to both win a championship and make another trip to the semi-finals (Harris is the other). If we completed our 2012 run then I don’t think there would even be an argument for whom the most successful captain for the first half of the decade is.

Con: The 2013 regular season happened.

Marty Beilis:

Pros: Marty’s captain of the decade consideration begins and ends with the amazing feat of making three finals. Just like the Buffalo Bills in the early 90s(except the Superbowl against the Giants), Beilis was the underdog once he made the finals and hasn’t been able to pull one out. Regardless, making three finals puts him right in the middle of the conversation.

Cons: No captain can be crowned unless he has won a championship. If other captains catch up to Beilis’ number of finals total then Beilis’s subpar regular seasons can hurt him in a tie breaker.

Bobby Harris:

Pros: Like I mentioned before, Harris and Pollock are the only two captains to both win a championship and make a separate final four trip.

Cons: Harris’s regular season record holds him back so far.

Brian Applebaum:

Pros: Each of the five captains who have won a championship so far have a leg up on the rest of the captains, and Applebaum’s 2014 team will almost definitely go down as the most dominant team of the decade.

Cons: Maybe last season is the beginning of a hot streak for Applebaum whose playoff record this decade was 1-8 before 2014.

Dennis Lapine:

Pros: Like I said for Applebaum, every captain who has won a championship this decade should be listed as a viable contender. His regular season record is good enough now that a few more strong seasons will solidify his place towards the top of the “best regular season winning percentage” list.

Cons: After 2010, Lapine has had three first round exits and one second round exit.

Ronnie Carlin:

Pros: It seems odd putting a team on this list who hasn’t made it past the second round this decade, but Carlin is here because of regular season consistency. Carlin’s WORST regular season this decade was going 10-12 in 2012. Every season we’re talking about Carlin’s team being potentially one of the best. If he starts having playoff success, “Captain of the Decade” could be his because he’ll already have the regular season component to his resume.

Cons: Right now the disappointing postseasons only makes Ronnie a potential pick for the title if his luck starts to change.

There are other captains too who have built up a solid resume this decade but because they’ve fallen short in the post-season, they are only on the radar if they win championships. This group includes Goldfarb, Younger, Wallman. Of course every captain has a chance depending on how the next five years unfold, but it’s been fun looking back to see who has taken an early lead for Captain of the Decade.