Power Rankings Week 18

It always seems that the week leading up to the final regular season game also serves as a look ahead to the playoffs. For this reason, some of the commentary (ok, almost all of the commentaries) focus on playoff implications.

Power Rankings:

1.       Applebaum (1): They can lose by 20+runs on Sunday and still have the #1 spot going into the playoffs.

2.       Carlin (2): I spent awhile debating whether Carlin or Jacoby would get this slot. Despite the standings I think Carlin has a slightly better chance in the playoffs.

3.       Jacoby (3): We’ll see if defense can triumph for two years in a row. Applebaum vs. Jacoby Semi-Final matchup would be fascinating.

4.       Wallman (4): They may have the AL crown but they’re only 7-6 against their division. The advantage to pick their field should be enough to get them into round 2.

5.       Randell (5): Their five game losing streak can be attributed more to their recent missed games than to any alarming decline.

6.       Pollock (7): As of right now the only two teams in the past five years to have a better Runs Scored average are the 2010 Lapine team(won championship) and this year’s powerhouse Team Applebaum. A great offense and an ok defense can get a lot of mileage. We just have to consistently play “OK defense”. If we do, then we can be a sleeper in the playoffs.

7.       Lapine ( NR): It’s a sign of the current state of the AL that all of a sudden Lapine has the #2 seed and even has an outside shot at #1. In my season preview, I said this would be a team that would gain momentum as the year progressed. They may be peaking at the right time. There’s one potential problem . . .

8.       Younger (6): . . . Two forfeits in one season might be unfortunate for all the teams directly involved, but Team Lapine might be the team who is most negatively affected in the long run. Younger is much better than their 8-13 indicates. They’re slotted as the #7 seed yet have the second best run differential in the AL. Yet because of these two forfeits they’ll most likely have to face the #2 seed, currently Lapine, and potentially knock off a team who could have otherwise advance a few rounds.

Around the League:

While the theme for most of the season was the dominance of the top few teams, the theme of the final few weeks has been the (re)emergence  of teams previously left for dead until 2015.  Two weeks ago, Granese was 6-13 and seemingly headed nowhere. Since then they beat two tough teams in Randell and Carlin. Meanwhile Team Harris, while still owning the league’s worst record, opened many eyes by doing the almost impossible- beating Applebaum. Not to be left out, Bykofsky just recently had a stretch where they won 5 out of 6 games.

Over the AL, no team has ever completely fallen off the radar. The beginning of the season saw Feldman as the clear favorite only to fall back to the middle of the pack. With some of their key players starting to heat up, they can make some playoff noise. Once upon a time, Mamone looked like they belonged with the Elite NL teams. Now they’re 1-7 in their last 8 games(although some reasons are due to poor attendance),  and will have to dig deep to find the swagger they had when they were 8-4 and scoring runs with ease. Beilis and Goldfarb are also lurking and define what a “sleeper” really is. Neither have shown for an extended period of time their full potential, but have shown enough to prove they can challenge any of the other American League teams in the playoffs. And then there is the forever limping Team Marrone. Have they been playing possum all season just like last year? Recent dominating performance against Wallman (23-7) and Beilis (24-5) suggest anything is possible.

For awhile the 2014 season looked like it would inevitably come down to one of the Elite teams facing Wallman or Mamone in the finals. While that scenario is more than just a possibility, there has been enough excitement in the league over the past few weeks to suggest a wild, anything can happen playoffs.

Power Rankings

In some cases, a team’s ranking was in small part based on their chances of advancing far in the playoffs. This is why Wallman moves ahead of Randell and Younger makes a jump to #6 despite only having an 8-12 record. I know I have not been the only one believing for awhile that Younger is a sleeper, and now they’re starting to deliver on that promise. In my pre-season power rankings I wrote Younger “Wins the award for team nobody wants to go against in the playoffs.” That statement holds as much truth now than it did then. Being in the wide open American League is what keeps Mamone in the top 8 despite losing five consecutive games. Despite this slump, they have a lot of potential and would not be surprised to see them in the semi-finals.

 

1.       Applebaum (1)

2.       Carlin (3)

3.       Jacoby (2)

4.       Wallman (5)

5.       Randell (4)

6.       Younger (NR)

7.       Pollock (8)

8.       Mamone (7)

Wednesday Night Preview

What’s at stake Wednesday night?

Through randomness, we have perhaps the best Wednesday night matchups in the history of the league. In past years when we’ve had similar clashes of titans, the teams were spread out among the two leagues and/or four divisions. Now that the four best teams all come from the National League, the results won’t affect half of the teams in the league. For the National League, however, Wednesday night’s games will have huge ramifications on playoff seeding. One problem though is that the four teams are so tightly grouped, we may not realize what effect Wednesday night had until the season is over. That won’t prevent me from trying to figure out what Wednesday’s results means for getting the top seed and what it means for dropping to the fourth seed. Of course it’s up for debate how much each team wants to avoid getting the 4^th spot. My team (Team Pollock) pretty much has the 5^th spot locked up, so I’m hoping these teams would rather play either Granese, Bykofsky, or Harris than face us. I’ll just happily assume teams want to avoid the 4^th seed. Anyway, there are three fairly obvious components to consider:

1.       Team Record

2.       Tie-Breaker Scenarios

a.       Head to head

b.      Record against NL Teams

c.       Total Runs Scored

3.       Strength of Remaining Schedule.

a.       I’m going to use the term “Elite Games” to refer to games each team has left vs. a member of the four elite teams. After Wednesday night, Applebaum and Jacoby have two Elite games left while Randell and Carlin only have one. Projecting game results rarely works out (unless we’re talking about my 16-1 Wednesday night record thank you very much), but let’s make one assumption. Playing one of the three other elite teams is a significantly harder than playing any of the four other teams in the NL.

Here are the most likely ramifications for each possible scenario after Wednesday night. I’m going to discuss it in order of what I think will most likely happen Wednesday night.

Scenario 1: Randell beats Jacoby; Applebaum beats Carlin

What it Means for #1: This is a good place to say that no matter what happens Wednesday night, Applebaum will be the most likely NL #1 seed. This Wednesday night result would make it the most certain.

What it Means for #4: This would make next week’s Jacoby vs. Carlin most likely a battle for who will avoid the fourth seed. Jacoby would enter the matchup with a one game lead, but a loss to Carlin will make their records the same. Carlin will then have the advantage because if they finish with the season with the same record, Carlin will have had a better NL record (They would have split the head to head meetings, so it goes to the second tie breaker). The advantage also goes to Carlin the rest of the way because they have less Elite Games left. If Jacoby beats Carlin, they will have a two game lead over them as well as the tie breaker. Meanwhile, Randell will likely have the same record as Jacoby with three remaining games under this scenario. Randell, however has the better tie breaker and strength of schedule left so they are less likely to fall to the 4^th spot.

 

Scenario #2: Jacoby beats Randell; Applebaum beats Carlin

What it Means for #1: Even with Jacoby keeping pace, Applebaum has a nice advantage. Two games is a lot to make up with four games left, even if Jacoby wins the rematch against Applebaum. Applebaum will also have the tie breaker no matter. A tie at the end of the season means a tie in NL Records and at best for Jacoby,a tie in the head to head matchup. That brings us to runs scored and nobody is catching Applebaum.

What it Means for #4: Jacoby will firmly establish their #2 holding. Randell and Carlin have the same number of Elite Games. What matters most is that Randell owns the tie breaker over Carlin. This is why under this scenario, Carlin will most likely get the 4^th seed.

 

Scenario #3: Randell beats Jacoby; Carlin beats Applebaum

What it Means for #1: I still believe Applebaum would win the top spot, but this would give Carlin some hope. With one less Elite Game than Applebaum, Carlin would have some reason to think they can finish 4-0 and hope Applebaum finishes 2-2. Carlin would have won both of their head to head matchups under this scenario meaning they would then have the tie breaker. A lot of this holds true for Randell as well. If Randell goes 4-0 and Applebaum goes 2-2, then they would get the #1 seed because their NL Record would be better than Applebaum’s and they’d also have the head to head tie breaker over Carlin. Again, I think the chances of the last month playing out like this is slim, but there is a small chance for both Randell and Carlin under this scenario.

What it Means for #4: Jacoby would be tied with Randell but Randell would have the tie breaker based on head to head as well as having one less Elite Game to play. Jacoby would also have the same record as Carlin thus making their matchup next week a battle to see who can avoid the 4^th seed.

 

Scenario #4: Jacoby beats Randell; Carlin beats Applebaum

What it Means for #1: Even with Jacoby moving to one game out of the top spot, Applebaum has a nice advantage. Let’s even say hypothetically that Jaocby beats Applebaum when they have their rematch. This means they each have the same record with one Elite Game on each schedule. The tie-breaker goes to Applebaum because a tie at the end of the season indicates a tie in the head to head matchup(Jacoby’s only chance at winning #1 seed is to beat Applebaum), and a tie in the NL record. It comes down to Runs Scored and nobody is catching Applebaum. Under this scenario, Jacoby would have to win their last four games and hope Applebaum loses to either Granese, Harris, or Randell. It’s possible, but not likely.

What it Means for #4: Carlin would temporarily have the upper hand over Randell  simply for having a better record. Both teams have similar schedules, so Carlin would have a decent shot at avoiding the 4^th seeed. Team Randell, however, owns the tie breaker over Carlin, so if Randell finishes one game over Carlin over the final four games under this scenario, then Carlin would have the 4^th seed.

 

Actual Wednesday Night Predictions:

Since I stated I’m ordering these scenarios based on likeliness to occur, I’m predicting Randell to beat Jacoby and Applebaum to defeat Carlin. The Jacoby/Randell game is as much of a toss up as it can get. Both teams have been playing great despite losing their last games. As good as Carlin is, there’s no sense in picking against Applebaum now. They have a good chance at having the best record since we moved to a 22 game schedule. The current record holder is Younger’s 2012 team who went 18-4.  Both teams have threats who can put it over the fence, but I’m not sure we’ve ever seen an offense as hot as Applebaum’s over their past six games(96 runs; 16 runs per game average).

 

 

POwer Rankings Week 16

Quick playoffs thought before we move onto the power rankings: While we’re still a month away from the post season beginning, I want to go on the record and give my dark horse pick. Last year I talked about the similarities shared between each winning team since 2010. While I mostly agree these traits are coincidental, an argument can be made (especially for #3 on the list) that it’s an important feature for a championship team to possess. These traits are:

1.       At least two rookies on the roster.

2.       No player from the previous year’s championship club is on the team.

3.       The team ranks in the top 8 of Runs Scored.

Like I said, the first two may seem pretty coincidental but so far this has been the pattern. Only one team this year fits all three categories…. Team Younger.

This is a team that I predicted would get off to a slow start only to emerge late in the season. While the ship hasn’t necessarily hit smooth sailing yet, there are a few signs that point to potential playoff success. Despite sporting a measly 6-12 record (4^th worst in the league), they have the 6^th best run differential. They also play in The American League, which is completely up for grabs, and have beaten quality opponents including Mamone twice (including a  shutout) and Randell. Nobody in the AL has looked like a surefire pick, so I’m going to pick the team that has fit the recent championship criteria to make the finals.

Power Rankings:

1.       Applebaum (1): Another dominating performance last Sunday strongly suggests UH Left might be the first field selected in the playoffs. Applebaum has scored at least 20 runs in all three UH Left games this year. This league used to feature an Elite 3 or 4 teams at the top, but APplebaum has separated themselves from a very competitive group.

 

2.       Jacoby (2): On the bright side, their 5-4 loss was one of Jacoby’s best defensive outings of the season. For a team built on defense, that’s a good sign as we march towards the playoffs.

 

3.       Carlin (4): After back to back three run performances, Carlin has responded with 24 and 16 run offensive explosions. It’s safe to say that two game mini-slump was just a hiccup.

 

4.        Randell (3): After finally giving them the long overdue Power Rankings respect they deserved, Randell loses only their third game not decided by one run. I think their loss is more of a sign that Bykofsky is playing better than Randell having a poor game.

 

5.       Wallman (5): Seven wins in a row and 10 out of their last 12 only gets the fifth spot on the list? Again, this is more of a reflection on how strong the NL is than anything else.

 

6.        Goldfarb (8): This is where it gets murky. It’s pretty unusual for a time to jump two spots despite losing its last game, but so much of Goldfarb’s recent inconsistency can be excused by missing key players.

 

7.       Mamone (6): I still believe Mamone has Finals potential, but they need to get out of this slump. I’d call it a “mini” slump, but it becomes worse when you get shutout

 

8.       Pollock (7): The loss to Applebaum was ugly, but APplebaum has been crushing opoonants all season. The last stretch of games will be an important test to se if we can beat some of the elite teams.

Wednesday Night Preview

The bad news for me is I lost a prediction thus ending my streak. The good news is since the Younger/Beilis game ended first, my streak stops at 13 and not 12.

Goldfarb vs. Mamone:

Mamone has the better record and is listed higher in my rankings, but I’m going to go with Goldfarb in a mild upset tonight. The lesson learned from last Wednesday’s Carlin/Randell game is sometimes it takes more than one bad game for a good team to get it out of their system. That’s what I expect will happen tonight as Team Goldfarb makes a move for the top spot in the AL.

Predicted Winner: Goldfarb

Pollock vs. Harris:

I can’t predict my own games. It’s been a frustrating year for Team Harris, but Harris always manages to have his teams ready for the playoffs. As August approaches, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his team to start playing better. Meanwhile, my team is itching to get back on the field after a very tough Sunday loss.

From the Softball Blog Vault: Softball/Baseball Averages

Editor’s note: The following post was published May 15^th, 2010 on a previous blog I once had. I’m republishing it now because A) I think it’s an interesting read and B) it’s something worth revisiting. I’m going to be writing a post soon about how the amount of .500 and .600 seasons have gone up in recent years. I’ll want to compare how the softball/baseball averages comparison has changed during this period.

 

Softball/MLB Averages- The Mystery Is Solved

Whenever I explained how batting under .500 in slow pitch softball isn't completely embarrassing, I told people how batting .500 is like batting .300 in the major leagues. I never knew if this was really true or not, but it seemed right. I was bored at work one day, so I decided to actually figure out how softball averages equate to MLB averages. I decided to create a chart of batting average conversions using last year’s softball statistics and the last 10 years of major league baseball averages. Here’s how it works:



Step One:

There are 208 players in the Marlboro Mens’ Softball league. We only have statistics on the 180 returning players. Since the 28 non returning players are considered unknown variables(since we don’t know if they overall had high averages or low averages), we’ll just assume that their data falls in line with the 180 players returning this year. Out of these 180 players:

73 batted .450
61 batted .475
30 batted .500
16 batted .525
8 batted .550
4 batted .575
2 batted .600

I turned each of these numbers into a ratio. For instance, since 30 out of 180 players batted .500, that’s 1 in 6. 16 out of 180 players batting .525 means that one in 11.25 players batted .525

Step Two:

To find the MLB equivalent, I needed to first figure out how many hitters are in a lineup. Since there are 9 hitters in an AL lineup (14 teams) and 8 hitters in an NL lineup (16 teams), that gives us 254 MLB players (14x9) + (16x8). Now it was time to apply the softball ratios to MLB statistics. For example:

Since 1 in 6 softball players batted .500 last year, we divide 254(the total number of MLB hitters in a lineup) by 6. Since 254 divided by 6 is 42( using the regular rounding system), whatever average was 42nd best in baseball is the equivalent of batting .500.

Step Three:

In 2009, the 42nd best average was .300. How amazing is that! I always just randomly figured that batting .500 in softball was like bating .300 in the major leagues. The only problem is I didn’t want to only use one year of MLB statistics to figure out these equivalent averages. Therefore, I repeated this system for the last 10 years of MLB statistics. This did not take as long as it seems. So for the equivalent of batting .500 in softball, I wrote down what the 42nd best batting average was in baseball for each of the last 10 years. Then I took the average of this number. Over this 10 year period it turns out that batting .500 in softball is really like batting .297 in the majors.

Finally, here are all the equivalent averages I came up with:

Softball Average                       Major League Average

600                                          .341

.575                                         .331

.550                                         .320

.525                                         .310

.500                                         .297

.475                                         .288

.450                                         .285

Except for the difference between batting .450 and .475, there seems to be around a one point gain in the MLB equivalent average for every 2.5 points gained in your softball average. Sticking with that ratio would come in handy if you batted .535. Since it’s 10 points higher than .525, you could approximate that the MLB average would be around .314. This also means batting .700 is the equivalent to batting .381 in the majors. It's an inexact science, but I think it's pretty close.

The only problem is we only have one year’s worth of softball average to base these numbers. I’ll definitely see how the system works with two years worth of softball averages. I also happened to figure out that the softball equivalent to batting .300 in the major leagues is batting .506 in softball.

Let me know what you think. I'm pretty confident this is the best way to figure out these numbers.

Week 15 Power Rankings

There’s no way to check Elias on this, but last week could have been the first time in league history that only one game was decided by fewer than 8 runs. If “dominance” was the key word last weekend, I think it’s also a fitting word to describe the power rankings this year. In previous years my rankings listed all 16 teams. This year the number was reduced to 8 mostly because I wanted to focus on the positives and wanted to avoid writing negative comments about teams in the bottom half. Symbolically speaking though, going from 16 to 8 teams for the power rankings can also represent the idea of dichotomy. Where in previous years, all teams were connected by the rankings, this year we have the haves and have-nots. You’re either on the rankings, or you’re not.

As we enter the home stretch of the regular season, I’m curious to see how this will translate to the playoffs.  In the four years of having two separate 1-8 seedings for the playoffs, 2010 was the only year where one of the leagues had all four top seeds advance to the second round. One would look at the National League this year and think there’s a good chance that feat will be repeated this year (although being that my team sits in the #5 slot, I’m hoping there’s at least one upset waiting to happen). The top four NL teams won their games last week by 11,9,16, and 16 runs respectively. Dominance indeed.

Power Rankings:

1.       Applebaum (1)

2.       Jacoby (2)

3.       Randell (5)

4.       Carlin (3)

5.       Wallman (4)

6.       Mamone (6)

7.       Pollock (7)

8.       Goldfarb (8)

Other Notes:

Once again there’s a huge logjam at the 7-11 spots. If any of these teams can get super hot over the last few weeks, it might result in a move to the #6 spot. That big of a jump is still unlikely because I anticipate Team Mamone will get back on track and recover from their awful game.  

Wednesday Night Preview

12-0!!

12-0!!

12-0!!

I was trying to think of a subtle way to say I’m 12-0 picking Wednesday night games, but this way is more fun. One more time….

12-0!!!

I also know I’m jinxing myself because tonight is a really tough pair of games to predict. In preparation for the disappointment I’m likely going to experience, let me do this one last time….

12-0!!!!!!

Onto tonight’s matchups:

Beilis vs. Younger:

Even before the season I’ve felt Younger was going to have an average regular season but could be more dangerous in the playoffs.  I still believe they’re a team more potent than their record shows even with a new look roster. Despite having a 4-11 record, their run differential is a respectable -0.7. That’s the same as my team which has an 8-7 record. On the other side of the fence, Team Beilis has a 6-0 record against teams under .500. They’re chances tonight depend on whether or not Vaccaro plays, who I’m pretty sure can not play the Wednesday night games. If he plays, Beilis has a pretty good shot. If not, I feel Younger will begin playing up to their run differential.

Predicted Winner: Younger

Randell vs. Carlin:

   I’ve already commented on these teams in more detail in my power rankings. What’s amazing about these two superb teams is that the loser is going to be sitting in just the 4^th spot in the NL Standings. While this is a position Randell has held throughout the season, Carlin has only known the top 3 for almost the entire season.  I have to think Team Carlin is going to roar back after their 18-3 defeat Sunday. Meanwhile Team Randell has been led by a consistently great defense all season. There’s no reason to think they’ll have an off night other than the fact they’re playing a team who before last week’s debacle averaged 16.6 runs in their last five games.  Team Randell has shown they are just as good as the other top teams in the NL, but I don’t see Carlin falling back to the sole possession of the #4 spot in the division.

Predicted Winner: Carlin

Week 14 Power Rankings

Week 14 Power Rankings:

1.       Applebaum (1):  Over the past 13 games, their runs against average is 6.8. TO put that in context, the season leader in runs against has an average of 7.8.  Bottom line is while the leaderboard is full of Applebaum players, their defense has also been one of the best in the league.

 

2.       Jacoby (3): Jacoby is the reverse of Applebaum. When we think of Team Jacoby the first thing we normally think of is great defense, but it’s their offense that’s helping them achieve a great season. Team Jacoby has 9 games this season in which they’ve scored 10+runs. Only Team Applebaum has a higher amount.

 

3.       Carlin (2): Their 18-3 loss last week was the most shocking defeat of the season not because of who beat them(the formidable Team Wallman) but by its decisiveness. Although Team Carlin is just as good as the top two teams on the list, the truth is Carlin has struggled a bit lately defensively. After going through as good of a seven game stretch defensively as any team this season, they’ve now given up double digit runs in four consecutive games.   

 

4.       Wallman (6):  Two weeks ago they were #8, but their recent demolishing of Team Carlin and their current streak of 8 wins in their last 9 games has earned them a spot close to the Elite 3.

5.       Randell (5): Team Randell has not given up double digit runs since the third game of the season. No other team can boast that. It’s a testament to how great the National League is that this team could possibly only end up as a #4 seed. If they beat Carlin tonight and follow it up with a win on Sunday, they’ll certainly move up.

 

 

6.       Mamone (4): When the top is this good, one bad week (even with missing your #1), can set you back a few spots. If there is any reason for concern it’s that Team Mamone has allowed double digit runs in 5 out of their last 6 games. Personally, I don’t think it’s too alarming when they have such an offensive juggernaut.

7.       Pollock (8): The middle group of teams are all so close that the tie breaker is going to have to go to a team that won its last game and has been on a pretty good roll, winners of 6 of our last 7 games.

 

8.       Goldfarb (7): It’s noted that Goldfarb was missing Marty when losing last week. I still have to have them drop a spot when losing to a 2-12 team.  

Week 13 Power Rankings

Quick rankings for this week:

1. Applebaum (1)
2. Carlin (3)
3. Jacoby (1)
4. Mamone (4)
5. Randell (5)
6. Wallman (8)
7. Goldfrb (NR)
8. Pollock (6)

Wednesday Night Predictions:

Tonight's winners: Jacoby, Goldfarb

Week 12 Power Rankings

Ironically, I had less time to work on the blog this week once my summer vacation started. Not much change this week. As it’s true every season, certain sub divisions start becoming clear around the mid-year point. This week I’ll list the teams by categories as well as a previous championship team from the past few years that fit each category.

The Powerhouses- These are the teams who seemed poised to have a lock on the top three spots for perhaps the rest of the season. They at least have the benefit of the doubt for the next few weeks.

Previous Championship Teams: Team Jacoby (2012) and Team Pollock (2011)- Both teams were in the upper echelon wire to wire before winning the championship.

1.       Jacoby (1)

2.       Applebaum (2)

3.       Carlin (3)

Glimpses of Greatness- These teams at one point during the season have shown they can belong in the top group. Randell started the season as strong as any team in the league while Mamone is currently showing what they could be capable of.

Previous Championship Team: Team Lapine (2010): A now legendary ( for Marlboro Softball  at least) group of rookies and breakout players that included rookies Dave Polzer, Pat Brock, as well as breakout seasons from Justin Brock and Adam Rothschild. Also had league MVP Glen Roland.  This is a great example of a team that showed throughout the season they could be great but didn’t fully realize its dominance until late in the season and the playoffs.

4.       Mamone (5)

5.       Randell (4)

Get Hot At The Right Time- These are the teams how may show more inconsistency than the above groups, but for stretches of time can be just as tough to beat. My weekly power rankings are restricted to the top 8 teams, but this group extends beyond that amount. Beyond the teams listed below this group would also include Goldfarb, Beilis and Feldman. I also think Younger has the potential to join this group.

Previous Championship Team: Team Harris (2012): Team Harris wasn’t bad during the regular season; they were just one of several teams lurking behind the powerhouses. They finished 12-10 and didn’t rank high in either offense or defense. They were a good team who gelled at the right time.

6.       Pollock (6)

7.       Lapine (7)

8.       Wallman (NR)

Wednesday Night Preview

So far I’m a perfect 9-0 in predicting Wednesday Night game outcomes. Can I keep it going? Will there even be games tonight?

Applebaum vs. Bykofsky:

 

Yes, this is a 9-2 team playing a 1-9 team. Yes, Applebaum has a team that should be especially potent on Union Hill. . Yes, I’m picking Applebaum to win the game. Team Bykofsky, however, is not a team to completely write off. When a team is 1-9 usually there is some bad luck involved. Only three other teams have been involved in more games decided by three or fewer runs. So far Bykofsky has come up short, but there should come a time when those close games will start going Bykofsky’s way. I’m not saying they’re going on a major run, but they’re not going to do 3-19 either.

 

Predicted Winner: Applebaum

 

Granese vs. Pollock:

I’m not one who believes in “bulletin board material”. All that kind of stuff makes for fun talk during the week, but when it comes down to it all that matters when you’re in the batter’s box is the pitching coming in. You’re playing in the moment and all the other narratives that have formed goes away. I can only speak for myself when I say I won’t be trying any harder tonight since we got embarrassed by Granese in Week One to the tune of 24-6. If we win, it’ll be a reminder of how much better our team has been playing. If we have any hopes at trying to catch the top four teams in our division, we have to win tonight. It won’t be easy. Even though Granese hasn’t had a great season so far, we’ve already seen first-hand what they are capable of doing.

Week 11 Power Rankings

It's going to be an abbreviated power rankings this week. With three double headers this Sunday, chances are there is going to be plenty of movement on the list next week.

It was a short reign at the top for Carlin, but that hardly means anything as far as how I view their team. Once again, the top 4 teams have a pretty big stranglehold on the rest of the league. Mamone has shown at times that they can challenge the elite, but for now it’s a four team carousel at the top.

1. Jaocby (2)
2. Applebaum (3)
3. Carlin (1)
4. Randell (5)
5. Mamone (4)
6. Pollock (8)
7. Lapine (6)
8. Goldfarb (7)

Choosing 6-8 for the list was difficult with so many teams hovering around .500. Keep in mind the power rankings won't be strictly based on team records because if it was then there would be no point of doing what the standings already does. While Feldman, Beilis, Wallman, Younger, aren't on the list, they're easily right on the border. Ultimately, Goldfarb made it because of how they've played against some of the other top teams in the league.

Wednesday Night Preview

Younger vs. Marrone- Right now this is the story of two teams going in opposite directions. Marrone was one of the pleasant surprises to start the season, but they’ve hit a rough patch. Meanwhile Team Younger will miss Pat Brock but gains Adam Greenspan. Not a bad consolation prize. Team Younger is one of the teams I thought would have a much stronger second half than first half even before the season due to its rookies and Pat Brock recovery time. Taking Brock out of the equation, and I still think it’s true. No one will want to play Younger in the playoffs, and tonight we’ll start to see why.

Predicted Winner: Younger

Wallman vs. Lapine- While I have raved about Lapine in recent rankings, tonight’s game can present a problem. Word on the street is their missing the AL’s leading hitter Dean Curreri and they still have the underrated issue of rookies dealing with the tough Wednesday night lights. Meanwhile, Wallman has been on a bit of a roll. Lapine will present a bigger challenge, and Wallman should see this as a message game Ultimately, I think Lapine pulls this one out. Great teams win even when missing a star player. I like the energy of the team as it seems like someone new comes through each game.

Predicted Winner: Lapine

Week 10 Power Rankings

This was the most difficult power rankings of the season. Of course right after I talk about the dominance of the top four teams in the NL, two of its powerhouses go out and lose the following Sunday. I had a whole intro written out about how I don’t want to overreact to one week and that the top five of the power rankings were going to stay the same as last week. But as I started to look over the numbers and consider my own opinions of the teams, the more I couldn’t undervalue what happened last week. In most seasons, Applebaum’s 7 game winning streak would allow them the benefit of the doubt as the best team in the league. Not this year. Normally I dislike the idea that a power rankings should be a near-sighted look at the teams in the league. It’s a testament to how great the top teams are this year that one minor slipup can be enough to slip a few spots.

1.       1. Carlin (3)- While Team Jacoby rightfully gets credit for being the epitome of a team built around defense, look what Carlin has done during their last seven games. Not one game during that stretch have they given up more than six runs. Offensively they’re doing just fine between my early vote for MVP, Jesie Cytryn, Darren Freeman (.659), and consistently great Brad Goldstein.

2.       2. Jacoby (2)- For awhile I wrote off part of their success this year to a bit of luck. No other team has played in more one-run games (5) than Jacoby has which shows that half of their games haven’t featured displays of dominance. This thinking may have some legitimacy except for the fact they are only 3-2 in these games. Their victories for the most part are not the result of a lucky break here or there. This is a defending championship team going on another championship caliber run.

3.       3. Applebaum (1)- It’s so hard for me to actually rank this team third, but that’s what one bad game can do when you have some great competition. They were just coming off a six game stretch where they gave up a measly 5.16 runs per game. How impressive is that? No other team this year has had a better six game stretch all season. On the flip side, Team Applebaum is the only team to give up more than 20 runs in a game three times. Their offense will always show up, and Herm is a great pitcher. But will this Jekyll and Hyde defensive performance this season cost them in the playoffs?

4.       4. Mamone (5)- One of the toughest decisions this week was whether or not to keep Randell in the fourth spot. Ultimately I could not ignore the quick return to dominance Mamone showed on Sunday. It’s impossible not to reward a team that beat the reigning King of the power rankings by eight runs. Mamone has won its last six games by an average of 8.2 runs per game!  Notice I don’t use exclamation marks often in this column, but Mamone’s recent performance deserves it.

5.      5.  Randell (4)- After discussing the brilliant play of Carlin, Jacoby, Applebaum, and Mamone, it’s easy to underrate Team Randell. Maybe this is also due to the fact I only had them ranked 11^th in my pre-season column. Although they’ve lost two of their last three games, they have the 5^th best run differential in the league, and the 6^th best is pretty far behind.

6.       6. Lapine (6)- They keep on coming. With every week it’s becoming clearer just how many offensive threats this team has. There are the obvious leaderboard exploits of Spoto and Curreri, but then there’s also Callow and rookie Dave Meyer who will be on the leaderboard for Batting Average before June is over. Then there’s the power of Ferrarese and cousin Frankie who will continue to improve as his rookie campaign continues.

7.      7.  Goldfarb (NR)- It’s hard for me to give that much credit to a team that’s scored 6 or fewer runs in 75% of their games this year. They have, however, won 3 of their last 4 games and in a group of teams hovering around the .500 mark, that’s enough to get some positive attention.

8.      8.  Pollock (NR)- Is it time to put our team out there? Yes it is! We currently have four players batting .600 for the season in addition to a very solid second half of the lineup. Just as I said about Lapine before the season, I knew our team would need a month or so to gel. Matt has continued to improve on the mound, and despite some early defensive issues we have been steady in the field. But any discussion of the merits of our team comes back to hitting, and right now it’s clicking enough to earn us the final spot on the power rankings.

Week 9 Power Rankings

Once in awhile the stars align and we get a Wednesday night that’s a perfect showcase for the league. A few years ago, when we had four divisions, there was a Wednesday night where each first place team was in action. This year we have the amazing reoccurrence of the four teams who have established themselves early as being the clearly as the Elite facing off under the bright lights of Union Hill.

While this isn’t a Wednesday night preview article, it serves as a perfect introduction to the narrative forming this season: The dominance of the National League Elite. Teams Applebaum, Jacoby, Randell, and Carlin are a perfect 8-0 against the American League. These four teams have 29 combined wins this season. The bottom four NL teams have 8. Compare this to 18 wins for the top four AL teams and 12 for the bottom half. The only time these four teams lose is when they play each other. These four teams have a combined 7 losses this season, and the only time one of these losses came at the hands of a team outside these four was when Randell lost to Bykofsky. If memory serves me well, Randell was pretty shorthanded that game. To put this stat in another perspective, these top four teams are an astounding 23-1 when playing the other 12 teams in the league.

Moral Victory Note: Team Pollock lost to two of these teams by one run and had Team Applebaum on the ropes during the Hurricane Game.

It’ll be interesting to see how the American League teams continue to fare against these juggernauts. For one night, at least, they get to beat up against eachother.

Week 9 Power Rankings:

1. Applebuam (1)
2. Jacoby (2)
3. Carlin (3)
4. Randell (5)
5. Mamone (4)
6. Lapine  (NR)
7. Feldman (6)
8. Beilis (7)

Team Lapine finally makes their first appearance in the top 8. Pre-season they were my 3rd  ranked team, and I knew it would take them awhile to gel considering all the rookies drafted in key spots in the draft. After a quality win vs. a good Feldman team and a dominating performance against Granese, they earn their #6 spot.

Wednesday Night Preview

Goldfarb vs. Pollock

As tradition follows, I will not pick any games in which my team is playing. These are two teams with something to prove, as both sides had high pre-season expectations. It looks like Team Goldfarb may have already started this process Sunday after scoring 18 runs, the same amount they scored in their first four games combined.   Meanwhile Team Pollock gave a valiant effort in almost defeated defending champs Team Jacoby. If we continue to hit the way we should, this could be a very high scoring game.

Mamone vs. Granese

Only four teams have a better run differential than Team Granese, yet they stand at 3-4 and losers of 3 of their last 4 games.  Meanwhile, there’s perhaps no team playing better now(with the exception of Applebaum) than Team Mamone. The 17 runs given up over their last four games is the lowest amount in the league during the same period. Meanwhile Team Granese has struggled to score runs in bunches ever since their first week explosion.

Predicted Winner: Team Mamone

 

Wednesday Night Prediction Record: 6-0!

Updated Power Rankings- Week 8

1.       Applebaum (1)- Last Sunday was a real test for our defending #1 ranked team as they faced another 6-1 club minus Mark Carlin.  Nobody would have thought less of Applebaum if they lost. Instead they won comfortably while proving that giving up 54 runs during that infamous stormy double weather was a huge misnomer. To put this in perspective, Team Applebaum gave up 67 runs their first three games and only 27 in the five games since. There might be other teams only one or two games behind their 6-1 pace, but right now they are clearly ahead of the competition.

2.       Jacoby (2)- I think even by Jacoby’s own admission, his team has not played their best softball over the past two games. It says a lot about their talent and championship mentality that they manage to pull out victories in both games en route to a 6-2 record.

3.       Carlin (3)- With their 6-5 victory on Sunday, Team Carlin is now 3-0 in one run games. What’s interesting is that the combined record of these three opponents is 4-17. Maybe it’s a worrisome sign that they haven’t had more decisive victories against the lower half of the league. Sunday’s showdown against a hot Team Mamone will give us more evidence for how Carlin does against some stiff competition.

4.       Mamone (7)- If we can now overlook  Applebaum giving up 54 runs in a doubleheader then perhaps it’s time to put Mamone’s first two games in the rearview window as well. Since then, they’ve won four consecutive games including three games by comfortable margins (15, 13, and 6 runs).  

5.       Randell (5)-  Did you know Team Randell has led the league in highest average scoring per game(Runs Scored+ Runs Against) for three straight years? Right now they’re ranked 8^th in the category, so it’s likely going to end this season.

6.       Feldman (4)- I’d still want to buy their stock, but I’m waiting for them to go on the run I think they’re capable of going on. They’ve alternated between winning and losing every game this season, the very mark of inconsistency.

7.       Beilis (6)- If their offense can improve, perhaps Beilis can have a shot a cracking the top 5 again. Beilis is the only team to give up double digit runs only one time this year.

8.       Marrone (8- They’re hanging onto the 8^th spot by a thread, but I think they should rebound from a tough couple of games. If not, then there are a few other teams knocking at the door.

Other Notes:

·         I’ve said before that I felt Team Lapine would get on a hot streak eventually once their rookie pieces fall into place. A victory against a tough Team Feldman last Sunday could be the start of something special.

·         Although it may seem like only platitude, I think my team showed a lot of promise playing close games against some tough opponents. Two of our losses have been one-run defeats against top 5 teams, and another defeat was the result of the craziest game I’ve ever been a part of, the 38-31 “Tornado Game” against Applebaum.  In addition Matt Pollock’s command of the strike zone has grown significantly over the past month. All of this means nothing if the good effort doesn’t result in wins, but I have a good feeling a winning streak is on the horizon.