Wednesday Night Preview

What’s at stake Wednesday night?

Through randomness, we have perhaps the best Wednesday night matchups in the history of the league. In past years when we’ve had similar clashes of titans, the teams were spread out among the two leagues and/or four divisions. Now that the four best teams all come from the National League, the results won’t affect half of the teams in the league. For the National League, however, Wednesday night’s games will have huge ramifications on playoff seeding. One problem though is that the four teams are so tightly grouped, we may not realize what effect Wednesday night had until the season is over. That won’t prevent me from trying to figure out what Wednesday’s results means for getting the top seed and what it means for dropping to the fourth seed. Of course it’s up for debate how much each team wants to avoid getting the 4^th spot. My team (Team Pollock) pretty much has the 5^th spot locked up, so I’m hoping these teams would rather play either Granese, Bykofsky, or Harris than face us. I’ll just happily assume teams want to avoid the 4^th seed. Anyway, there are three fairly obvious components to consider:

1.       Team Record

2.       Tie-Breaker Scenarios

a.       Head to head

b.      Record against NL Teams

c.       Total Runs Scored

3.       Strength of Remaining Schedule.

a.       I’m going to use the term “Elite Games” to refer to games each team has left vs. a member of the four elite teams. After Wednesday night, Applebaum and Jacoby have two Elite games left while Randell and Carlin only have one. Projecting game results rarely works out (unless we’re talking about my 16-1 Wednesday night record thank you very much), but let’s make one assumption. Playing one of the three other elite teams is a significantly harder than playing any of the four other teams in the NL.

Here are the most likely ramifications for each possible scenario after Wednesday night. I’m going to discuss it in order of what I think will most likely happen Wednesday night.

Scenario 1: Randell beats Jacoby; Applebaum beats Carlin

What it Means for #1: This is a good place to say that no matter what happens Wednesday night, Applebaum will be the most likely NL #1 seed. This Wednesday night result would make it the most certain.

What it Means for #4: This would make next week’s Jacoby vs. Carlin most likely a battle for who will avoid the fourth seed. Jacoby would enter the matchup with a one game lead, but a loss to Carlin will make their records the same. Carlin will then have the advantage because if they finish with the season with the same record, Carlin will have had a better NL record (They would have split the head to head meetings, so it goes to the second tie breaker). The advantage also goes to Carlin the rest of the way because they have less Elite Games left. If Jacoby beats Carlin, they will have a two game lead over them as well as the tie breaker. Meanwhile, Randell will likely have the same record as Jacoby with three remaining games under this scenario. Randell, however has the better tie breaker and strength of schedule left so they are less likely to fall to the 4^th spot.

 

Scenario #2: Jacoby beats Randell; Applebaum beats Carlin

What it Means for #1: Even with Jacoby keeping pace, Applebaum has a nice advantage. Two games is a lot to make up with four games left, even if Jacoby wins the rematch against Applebaum. Applebaum will also have the tie breaker no matter. A tie at the end of the season means a tie in NL Records and at best for Jacoby,a tie in the head to head matchup. That brings us to runs scored and nobody is catching Applebaum.

What it Means for #4: Jacoby will firmly establish their #2 holding. Randell and Carlin have the same number of Elite Games. What matters most is that Randell owns the tie breaker over Carlin. This is why under this scenario, Carlin will most likely get the 4^th seed.

 

Scenario #3: Randell beats Jacoby; Carlin beats Applebaum

What it Means for #1: I still believe Applebaum would win the top spot, but this would give Carlin some hope. With one less Elite Game than Applebaum, Carlin would have some reason to think they can finish 4-0 and hope Applebaum finishes 2-2. Carlin would have won both of their head to head matchups under this scenario meaning they would then have the tie breaker. A lot of this holds true for Randell as well. If Randell goes 4-0 and Applebaum goes 2-2, then they would get the #1 seed because their NL Record would be better than Applebaum’s and they’d also have the head to head tie breaker over Carlin. Again, I think the chances of the last month playing out like this is slim, but there is a small chance for both Randell and Carlin under this scenario.

What it Means for #4: Jacoby would be tied with Randell but Randell would have the tie breaker based on head to head as well as having one less Elite Game to play. Jacoby would also have the same record as Carlin thus making their matchup next week a battle to see who can avoid the 4^th seed.

 

Scenario #4: Jacoby beats Randell; Carlin beats Applebaum

What it Means for #1: Even with Jacoby moving to one game out of the top spot, Applebaum has a nice advantage. Let’s even say hypothetically that Jaocby beats Applebaum when they have their rematch. This means they each have the same record with one Elite Game on each schedule. The tie-breaker goes to Applebaum because a tie at the end of the season indicates a tie in the head to head matchup(Jacoby’s only chance at winning #1 seed is to beat Applebaum), and a tie in the NL record. It comes down to Runs Scored and nobody is catching Applebaum. Under this scenario, Jacoby would have to win their last four games and hope Applebaum loses to either Granese, Harris, or Randell. It’s possible, but not likely.

What it Means for #4: Carlin would temporarily have the upper hand over Randell  simply for having a better record. Both teams have similar schedules, so Carlin would have a decent shot at avoiding the 4^th seeed. Team Randell, however, owns the tie breaker over Carlin, so if Randell finishes one game over Carlin over the final four games under this scenario, then Carlin would have the 4^th seed.

 

Actual Wednesday Night Predictions:

Since I stated I’m ordering these scenarios based on likeliness to occur, I’m predicting Randell to beat Jacoby and Applebaum to defeat Carlin. The Jacoby/Randell game is as much of a toss up as it can get. Both teams have been playing great despite losing their last games. As good as Carlin is, there’s no sense in picking against Applebaum now. They have a good chance at having the best record since we moved to a 22 game schedule. The current record holder is Younger’s 2012 team who went 18-4.  Both teams have threats who can put it over the fence, but I’m not sure we’ve ever seen an offense as hot as Applebaum’s over their past six games(96 runs; 16 runs per game average).