Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Wednesday Night Preview


So far I’m a perfect 9-0 in predicting Wednesday Night game outcomes. Can I keep it going? Will there even be games tonight?

Applebaum vs. Bykofsky:
 
Yes, this is a 9-2 team playing a 1-9 team. Yes, Applebaum has a team that should be especially potent on Union Hill. . Yes, I’m picking Applebaum to win the game. Team Bykofsky, however, is not a team to completely write off. When a team is 1-9 usually there is some bad luck involved. Only three other teams have been involved in more games decided by three or fewer runs. So far Bykofsky has come up short, but there should come a time when those close games will start going Bykofsky’s way. I’m not saying they’re going on a major run, but they’re not going to do 3-19 either.

 
Predicted Winner: Applebaum

 
Granese vs. Pollock:

I’m not one who believes in “bulletin board material”. All that kind of stuff makes for fun talk during the week, but when it comes down to it all that matters when you’re in the batter’s box is the pitching coming in. You’re playing in the moment and all the other narratives that have formed goes away. I can only speak for myself when I say I won’t be trying any harder tonight since we got embarrassed by Granese in Week One to the tune of 24-6. If we win, it’ll be a reminder of how much better our team has been playing. If we have any hopes at trying to catch the top four teams in our division, we have to win tonight. It won’t be easy. Even though Granese hasn’t had a great season so far, we’ve already seen first-hand what they are capable of doing.

Week 11 Power Rankings

It's going to be an abbreviated power rankings this week. With three double headers this Sunday, chances are there is going to be plenty of movement on the list next week.

It was a short reign at the top for Carlin, but that hardly means anything as far as how I view their team. Once again, the top 4 teams have a pretty big stranglehold on the rest of the league. Mamone has shown at times that they can challenge the elite, but for now it’s a four team carousel at the top.

1. Jaocby (2)
2. Applebaum (3)
3. Carlin (1)
4. Randell (5)
5. Mamone (4)
6. Pollock (8)
7. Lapine (6)
8. Goldfarb (7)

Choosing 6-8 for the list was difficult with so many teams hovering around .500. Keep in mind the power rankings won't be strictly based on team records because if it was then there would be no point of doing what the standings already does. While Feldman, Beilis, Wallman, Younger, aren't on the list, they're easily right on the border. Ultimately, Goldfarb made it because of how they've played against some of the other top teams in the league.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Wednesday Night Preview



Younger vs. Marrone- Right now this is the story of two teams going in opposite directions. Marrone was one of the pleasant surprises to start the season, but they’ve hit a rough patch. Meanwhile Team Younger will miss Pat Brock but gains Adam Greenspan. Not a bad consolation prize. Team Younger is one of the teams I thought would have a much stronger second half than first half even before the season due to its rookies and Pat Brock recovery time. Taking Brock out of the equation, and I still think it’s true. No one will want to play Younger in the playoffs, and tonight we’ll start to see why.

Predicted Winner: Younger


Wallman vs. Lapine- While I have raved about Lapine in recent rankings, tonight’s game can present a problem. Word on the street is their missing the AL’s leading hitter Dean Curreri and they still have the underrated issue of rookies dealing with the tough Wednesday night lights. Meanwhile, Wallman has been on a bit of a roll. Lapine will present a bigger challenge, and Wallman should see this as a message game Ultimately, I think Lapine pulls this one out. Great teams win even when missing a star player. I like the energy of the team as it seems like someone new comes through each game.

Predicted Winner: Lapine

Week 10 Power Rankings



This was the most difficult power rankings of the season. Of course right after I talk about the dominance of the top four teams in the NL, two of its powerhouses go out and lose the following Sunday. I had a whole intro written out about how I don’t want to overreact to one week and that the top five of the power rankings were going to stay the same as last week. But as I started to look over the numbers and consider my own opinions of the teams, the more I couldn’t undervalue what happened last week. In most seasons, Applebaum’s 7 game winning streak would allow them the benefit of the doubt as the best team in the league. Not this year. Normally I dislike the idea that a power rankings should be a near-sighted look at the teams in the league. It’s a testament to how great the top teams are this year that one minor slipup can be enough to slip a few spots.

1.       1. Carlin (3)- While Team Jacoby rightfully gets credit for being the epitome of a team built around defense, look what Carlin has done during their last seven games. Not one game during that stretch have they given up more than six runs. Offensively they’re doing just fine between my early vote for MVP, Jesie Cytryn, Darren Freeman (.659), and consistently great Brad Goldstein.

2.       2. Jacoby (2)- For awhile I wrote off part of their success this year to a bit of luck. No other team has played in more one-run games (5) than Jacoby has which shows that half of their games haven’t featured displays of dominance. This thinking may have some legitimacy except for the fact they are only 3-2 in these games. Their victories for the most part are not the result of a lucky break here or there. This is a defending championship team going on another championship caliber run.

3.       3. Applebaum (1)- It’s so hard for me to actually rank this team third, but that’s what one bad game can do when you have some great competition. They were just coming off a six game stretch where they gave up a measly 5.16 runs per game. How impressive is that? No other team this year has had a better six game stretch all season. On the flip side, Team Applebaum is the only team to give up more than 20 runs in a game three times. Their offense will always show up, and Herm is a great pitcher. But will this Jekyll and Hyde defensive performance this season cost them in the playoffs?

4.       4. Mamone (5)- One of the toughest decisions this week was whether or not to keep Randell in the fourth spot. Ultimately I could not ignore the quick return to dominance Mamone showed on Sunday. It’s impossible not to reward a team that beat the reigning King of the power rankings by eight runs. Mamone has won its last six games by an average of 8.2 runs per game!  Notice I don’t use exclamation marks often in this column, but Mamone’s recent performance deserves it.

5.      5.  Randell (4)- After discussing the brilliant play of Carlin, Jacoby, Applebaum, and Mamone, it’s easy to underrate Team Randell. Maybe this is also due to the fact I only had them ranked 11th in my pre-season column. Although they’ve lost two of their last three games, they have the 5th best run differential in the league, and the 6th best is pretty far behind.

6.       6. Lapine (6)- They keep on coming. With every week it’s becoming clearer just how many offensive threats this team has. There are the obvious leaderboard exploits of Spoto and Curreri, but then there’s also Callow and rookie Dave Meyer who will be on the leaderboard for Batting Average before June is over. Then there’s the power of Ferrarese and cousin Frankie who will continue to improve as his rookie campaign continues.

7.      7.  Goldfarb (NR)- It’s hard for me to give that much credit to a team that’s scored 6 or fewer runs in 75% of their games this year. They have, however, won 3 of their last 4 games and in a group of teams hovering around the .500 mark, that’s enough to get some positive attention.

8.      8.  Pollock (NR)- Is it time to put our team out there? Yes it is! We currently have four players batting .600 for the season in addition to a very solid second half of the lineup. Just as I said about Lapine before the season, I knew our team would need a month or so to gel. Matt has continued to improve on the mound, and despite some early defensive issues we have been steady in the field. But any discussion of the merits of our team comes back to hitting, and right now it’s clicking enough to earn us the final spot on the power rankings.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Week 9 Power Rankings


Once in awhile the stars align and we get a Wednesday night that’s a perfect showcase for the league. A few years ago, when we had four divisions, there was a Wednesday night where each first place team was in action. This year we have the amazing reoccurrence of the four teams who have established themselves early as being the clearly as the Elite facing off under the bright lights of Union Hill.

While this isn’t a Wednesday night preview article, it serves as a perfect introduction to the narrative forming this season: The dominance of the National League Elite. Teams Applebaum, Jacoby, Randell, and Carlin are a perfect 8-0 against the American League. These four teams have 29 combined wins this season. The bottom four NL teams have 8. Compare this to 18 wins for the top four AL teams and 12 for the bottom half. The only time these four teams lose is when they play each other. These four teams have a combined 7 losses this season, and the only time one of these losses came at the hands of a team outside these four was when Randell lost to Bykofsky. If memory serves me well, Randell was pretty shorthanded that game. To put this stat in another perspective, these top four teams are an astounding 23-1 when playing the other 12 teams in the league.
Moral Victory Note: Team Pollock lost to two of these teams by one run and had Team Applebaum on the ropes during the Hurricane Game.

It’ll be interesting to see how the American League teams continue to fare against these juggernauts. For one night, at least, they get to beat up against eachother.

Week 9 Power Rankings:

  1. Applebuam (1)
  2. Jacoby (2)
  3. Carlin (3)
  4. Randell (5)
  5. Mamone (4)
  6. Lapine  (NR)
  7. Feldman (6)
  8. Beilis (7)
Team Lapine finally makes their first appearance in the top 8. Pre-season they were my 3rd  ranked team, and I knew it would take them awhile to gel considering all the rookies drafted in key spots in the draft. After a quality win vs. a good Feldman team and a dominating performance against Granese, they earn their #6 spot.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Wednesday Night Preview


Goldfarb vs. Pollock

As tradition follows, I will not pick any games in which my team is playing. These are two teams with something to prove, as both sides had high pre-season expectations. It looks like Team Goldfarb may have already started this process Sunday after scoring 18 runs, the same amount they scored in their first four games combined.   Meanwhile Team Pollock gave a valiant effort in almost defeated defending champs Team Jacoby. If we continue to hit the way we should, this could be a very high scoring game.

Mamone vs. Granese

Only four teams have a better run differential than Team Granese, yet they stand at 3-4 and losers of 3 of their last 4 games.  Meanwhile, there’s perhaps no team playing better now(with the exception of Applebaum) than Team Mamone. The 17 runs given up over their last four games is the lowest amount in the league during the same period. Meanwhile Team Granese has struggled to score runs in bunches ever since their first week explosion.

Predicted Winner: Team Mamone

 

Wednesday Night Prediction Record: 6-0!

Updated Power Rankings- Week 8


1.       Applebaum (1)- Last Sunday was a real test for our defending #1 ranked team as they faced another 6-1 club minus Mark Carlin.  Nobody would have thought less of Applebaum if they lost. Instead they won comfortably while proving that giving up 54 runs during that infamous stormy double weather was a huge misnomer. To put this in perspective, Team Applebaum gave up 67 runs their first three games and only 27 in the five games since. There might be other teams only one or two games behind their 6-1 pace, but right now they are clearly ahead of the competition.

2.       Jacoby (2)- I think even by Jacoby’s own admission, his team has not played their best softball over the past two games. It says a lot about their talent and championship mentality that they manage to pull out victories in both games en route to a 6-2 record.

3.       Carlin (3)- With their 6-5 victory on Sunday, Team Carlin is now 3-0 in one run games. What’s interesting is that the combined record of these three opponents is 4-17. Maybe it’s a worrisome sign that they haven’t had more decisive victories against the lower half of the league. Sunday’s showdown against a hot Team Mamone will give us more evidence for how Carlin does against some stiff competition.

4.       Mamone (7)- If we can now overlook  Applebaum giving up 54 runs in a doubleheader then perhaps it’s time to put Mamone’s first two games in the rearview window as well. Since then, they’ve won four consecutive games including three games by comfortable margins (15, 13, and 6 runs).  

5.       Randell (5)-  Did you know Team Randell has led the league in highest average scoring per game(Runs Scored+ Runs Against) for three straight years? Right now they’re ranked 8th in the category, so it’s likely going to end this season.

6.       Feldman (4)- I’d still want to buy their stock, but I’m waiting for them to go on the run I think they’re capable of going on. They’ve alternated between winning and losing every game this season, the very mark of inconsistency.

7.       Beilis (6)- If their offense can improve, perhaps Beilis can have a shot a cracking the top 5 again. Beilis is the only team to give up double digit runs only one time this year.

8.       Marrone (8- They’re hanging onto the 8th spot by a thread, but I think they should rebound from a tough couple of games. If not, then there are a few other teams knocking at the door.

Other Notes:

·         I’ve said before that I felt Team Lapine would get on a hot streak eventually once their rookie pieces fall into place. A victory against a tough Team Feldman last Sunday could be the start of something special.

·         Although it may seem like only platitude, I think my team showed a lot of promise playing close games against some tough opponents. Two of our losses have been one-run defeats against top 5 teams, and another defeat was the result of the craziest game I’ve ever been a part of, the 38-31 “Tornado Game” against Applebaum.  In addition Matt Pollock’s command of the strike zone has grown significantly over the past month. All of this means nothing if the good effort doesn’t result in wins, but I have a good feeling a winning streak is on the horizon.