Final 2020 Power Ranknigs

 Final Power Rankings:

Before going into the final power rankings, I have to stress this does NOT necessarily represent how I feel about each team’s playoffs chances. For more on that, I’ll discuss it on the podcast or a future blog entry. There are numerous teams not included on this list that I think will be dangerous in the playoffs. History has shown almost as many lower seeds win in the first round as higher seeds, and this year could be no different.

The final power rankings are almost an afterthought as we get ready for the playoffs, but for the sake of prosperity, here are the final rankings. Like always, I only include teams .500 or higher(Sorry, Guy and Seth). 

I’m also including each of these teams’ Pre-season power ranking #(PPR), Captains’ Poll Rank(CPR) and Marrone’s Championship Odds(MCO), and Pre-Season Record Prediction(PRP).

Final Power Rankings:

10. Ferrarese= PPR(NR),CPR(NR), MCO(12-1), PRP(11-11)

• How far can the big hitters carry this team? 

9. Pingaro= PPR(NR), CPR(NR), MCO(11-1), PRP(9-13)

• Three impressive wins right before coming just a little short in the final game of the season.

8. Larocca= PPR(8), CPR(8), MCO(6-1), PRP(14-8)

• Since it’s almost the same time as last year, they’ve been looking forward to getting to finals after just coming up short. Now the quest begins. 

7. Jacoby= PPR(NR), CPR(NR), MCO(4-1), PRP(8-14)

• It seems like every year we talk about how Jacoby going into the playoffs is stronger than what their record indicates. This year is no exception. Congrats on avoiding the Play-In game. 

6. Fradkin= PPR(9), CPR(7), MCO(14-1), PRP(12-10)

• Amazing championship fact: No championship team since 2010(first year where this can be checked) entered the playoffs on a winning streak. Momentum going into the playoffs might be overrated, but a 7-game winning streak is still impressive. They scored 15+ runs in 5 of these 7 games.

5. Pollock= PPR(2), CPR(1), MCO(8-1), PRP(12-10)

• After losing three of our last four, I sure hope positive momentum going into the playoffs is overrated. After averaging 13.1 runs our first 1o games, we’ve averaged 7.42 in our last seven.

4. Marrone= PPR(5), CPR(6), MCO(4-1), PRP(15-7)

• I’m going to go out on a limb and say this team missed having Martin Blackburn the last four games. So much depends on Martin’s health. I’m wishing him the best.

3. Steinberg= PPR(6), CPR(9), MCO(6-1), PRP(13-9)

• Congrats to Evan on a great regular season. Interesting how their 12 wins came courtesy of two long winning streaks of 7 and 5 games. 

2. Wallman= PPR(1), CPR(2), MCO(4-1), PRP(15-7)

• As you can tell by all the pre-season prognicators, Wallman’s club was predicted to be in this spot from the very beginning. Wallman is one of three teams to only have one two-game losing streak all year(Harris and Pollock are the others). That ability to quickly bounce back is important come playoff time.

1.  Harris= PPR(7), CPR(5), MCO(25-1), PRP(12-10)

• The top of the league is bunched together, so I’m giving the nod to the only team in the group to win its final game(and the overall #1 seed). Congratulations to everyone who placed their wagers on this team to win the championship at 25-1. There’s a chance of a big payday ahead. 

Updated Power Rankings- Week of August 16th

 After a longer than expected break, thanks to storm damage and power outage, it is time to update the Power Rankings. Before we get to the rankings, I thought I’d bring up the biggest trend we’re seeing this season; the uptick in runs scored. We currently have eleven teams averaging 11+ runs per game. Last year there were only TWO teams that averaged that many. (Trivia: The year that features the most 11+ runs per game teams was 2016 when 8 teams averaged that many runs. Strangely, only ONE team averaged 11 runs the next season). So what is causing the increase in offense? I have three theories:

1. We have more offensive talent in the league this year(Call it the Dimarco’s Friends factor)

2. An extended Spring Training meant that more teams started the year in mid-season form.

3. More Union Hill games means more Home runs and runs(Call it the Eric Becker factor).

The 17 game schedule means no offensive records will likely be broken this year, but if the trend continues next year then it’ll be fun to see which post 2010 historic feats get challenged.

Back to the rankings. Even though I did not publish my update last week, I did a personal list. Last week’s rankings will appear in parenthesis. 

Bubbling Under: As a rule I don’t include teams under .500 in the official power rankings, so here are a few words on three sub .500 teams that should appear back in the PRs soon. 

Goldfarb- It’s almost impossible to compete when you have a 1 who is hindered by injuries.  By all accounts, Jeff Paglio would have been a top player this year but we’re going to have to wait a year to see it happen. Trading an injured Paglio for Justin Brock(My pick for best player of the 2010s) will move Goldfarb back to the power rankings pretty quickly.

Jacoby- Once again, here’s a team suffering from missed games and injuries to key players. We all knew Granese would miss some games, so it’s hard to use that as an excuse especially since that’s why he was available in the third round. But Saler’s injury left Jacoby without his 2 for a few games as well. Bottom line: Don’t judge Jacoby by their 4-5 record.

Bykofsky- They may be 10th in overall seeding, but Bykofsky is 6th in run differential. The truth is unlike Goldfarb and Jacoby, Bykofsky can’t really blame this slow start on major injuries or missed games. There’s a chance this year’s team might just end up hovering around .500. They make the Bubbling Under list based on pre-season expectations and Bykofsky’s stellar track record. Never count them out.

Power Rankings:

9. Ferrarese(7): Gluck-Dunleavy-Sandler-Scotty Podcast is as scary as they come, especially on UH. However, you can’t ignore Podolla, who is having a breakout season, Pat Thomas who has serious power for a 9th round pick, and Cowboy Mike who…..well, he once batted cleanup for us in the playoffs. On Sunday we have a rematch of our pre-season battle on UH Right and if that game was any indication, it will be a tough matchup.

8. Dimarco (5): Last week I would have had Dimarco all the way up to number 5 thanks to seeing first hand how dangerous of a team they have. The “All offense, no defense” label slapped on them is misleading. First of all, picking Deluise to pitch was one of the best picks of the entire draft. He’s going to be a star pitcher for a long time. Second of all, Saglietto plays a solid SS. So having a solid SS, very good pitcher, and one of the best LCF in the field automatically elevates Dimarco’s defense to at least an average level.They’re ranked 13th in Runs Against which obviously isn’t great, but here’s the thing: When you have have an offense as great as Dimarco’s, you can get away with that kind of defense. You can’t come out flat against Dimarco. They’ll make you pay.

7. Wallman (8): The offense is as advertised. Becker is crushing the ball, Lugos is approaching .600, and Meyer is having his best year yet setting the table. The fact is though if a team has to switch around their LF, RCF, 2B,SS mid-season then there’s some cause for concern. The move may prove successful (This is my gratuitous mention that we switched shortstops right before the 2011 playoffs en route to a championship), but it’s a sign there were some holes not detected by the prognosticators when making them pre-season favorites. Overall, I think they have enough offense and great pitching to keep them near the top of the league.

6. Larocca (10): It took almost half the season, but Team Larocca is now playing like the team that was one inning away from making the championship last year. With so many returning players from last year’s team, it feels safe to compare these the 2019 and 2020 Larocca teams. If there’s one area of concern, it’s consistent run scoring. Having practically the same roster means they have a similar runs scored average to last year(10.9 vs last year’s 11.3). However where 11.3 runs per game was enough to have them ranked 2nd in runs scored average, 10.9 runs has them only ranked 12th this year.

5. Steinberg (2): The 7 game win streak may have come to an ugly stop Wednesday night, but they deserve to be in the top third of the league. It will be interesting to see how the rookie Captain’s team responds after a loss. As we saw in the beginning of the year, they responded incredibly well after a rough first two games. Like I mentioned with Team Larocca, Steinberg’s club is going to need the offensive numbers to pick up in order to stay successful.

4.  Pingaro (6): Quick Trivia Question: Which two players had the most at bats in the previous decade? Number one is Justin Bykofsky which makes sense. He played all 10 years, stayed healthy, lives and breathes softball, and always bats at the top of the lineup. #2 is Pat Pingaro. The only part that makes this a little surprising is that Pat did not always bat at the top of the lineup like Bykofsky. What this shows though is how much Pat is devoted to this league, which is also what makes him a great captain. It’s only his first year, but you already know when you play Pingaro you’re going against a team that will strategize based on league knowledge and make minimal mistakes on the field.

3. Pollock (4): While the team’s success shouldn’t be shocking based on the pre-season captains’ poll, the fact that we have the number one offense despite the lack of a true power hitter might be a little surprising. The top of the lineup has been incredible, with five players hitting .550 or better. Only one team since 2010 has finished the season with four players .550 or higher: 2014 Team Pollock. Two potential question marks pre-season were our outfield defense and Matt as full-time pitcher. Our outfield defense held up even in Schwag’s absence(welcome back!), and Matt has been thrown strikes consistently in his second season as a full-time pitcher(He was our starting pitcher in the aforementioned 2014 season). Team Pollock has a chance to lead the league in Run Differential for an incredible four years in a row. 

2. Harris (3): Why does it seem that Harris has emerged as a league front-runner in quiet fashion? It must be because none of their players engage in a lot of social media chatter, or go on podcasts making bold predictions, or write a power rankings blog promoting their team’s success (gulp). The pre-season prediction was a modest 12-10 and my pre-season power rankings had them in a similarly good but not great 7th position. Even with an offense that features two Silverbergs, Callow, and Polzer, I thought they were 1 or 2 bats short to score with the best in the league. They’ve proven me wrong by being ranked 4th in Runs Scored Average. One aspect that I never questioned was their pitching and defense, which has resulted in the top Runs Against Average that is a full run better than the closest competitor. 

1.  Marrone (1): It was only last week it looked like Marrone’s team was head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Fast forward to now and they technically “only” have the third best record. An argument can be made that Wednesday’s loss should knock them from the top spot. So why hasn’t it? I feel they were so far ahead of the rest of the league up until this week that one bad game shouldn’t be enough to completely erase the gap. There are many factors to why Marrone’s club is so strong, but this week I’ll start at the top and talk about the Blackburns. I’ve talked about the Rookie Curse before and how no rookie drafted in the first three rounds has won a championship since 2011. Part of this has been a fluke; there have been plenty of top rookies who performed up to expectations. Sometimes the curse speaks truth as it is sometimes hard to predict whether a top prospect will adjust to the league right away or care enough about the league the amount it takes to lead their team. So far everything I’ve seen with the Blackburns indicates they not only can outperform where they went in the draft(Pretty impressive considering they were a 1 /3 combo) but more importantly bring an energy to the game that ignites the rest of the team. This could be the year the Rookie Curse is broken.

2020 Power Rankings Week 3

It’s always tough writing the early power rankings of the season when there are only a few games to go on. This year adds the extra wrinkle of evaluating some teams who have played six games while others played 3 or 4.

Early on the talk has been about the parity of the league. While we say that every year, and the point can be made again this year, I think the bigger story is that for the most part, the teams that were predicted to be strong are the ones with winning records, and the teams many thought would struggle are in fact at the bottom of the standings. Sure there are a few exceptions, some that will be listed in the rankings, but for the most part I think teams are who we thought they would be. 

Before we get to this week’s rankings, here’s another yearly reminder that Power Rankings are based on, in some order: personal opinion, team record, run differential, strength of opponent. In the early rankings I will also factor in the pre-season expectations.

Pre-Season power rankings are listed in parentheses.

10(NR). Goldfarb- If these rankings were written last week, they’d be #1 because I always have a team at the top of the rankings until they lose a game. My concern about Goldfarb’s club from the beginning was whether or not they’d be able to score enough runs. In the early going, their 7.0 runs scored average is second lowest in the league. 

9(NR). Lombardi- As I mentioned earlier, most teams are performing how the consensus thought they would but there have been some surprises. Count Lombardi as one of those surprises(at least judging by the published previews). I’m rooting for this team more than any other than my own for all the connections to the 2011 championship team(Jim and Paul Lombardi, JZ, Brock Hor, Eric Lurie). 

8(6). Steinberg- Evan’s team stumbled out of the gate, losing their first two games, but a nice rebound has them close to where I thought they’d be when the season started. Beating Bykofsky is a nice first win to have. 

7(NR). Ferrarese- Cowboy Mike must have been nervous after a horrible first game that saw them scoring two runs in the first and zero the rest of the way. However, scoring 22,22,15 over the next three games is the perfect response. Team chemistry will always be an advantage with Mike as captain, and I see Ferrarese club outperforming expectations all season. We already knew Chase Sandler could hit, but so far he has taken his game to Offensive Player of the Year levels.

6(7). Harris- For some reason Team Harris has flown under the radar a bit. In my pre-season write up I mentioned they could use an extra bat or two, and so far they’re tied for 11th in runs scored average, so that could still be true. The difference maker thus far has been pitching and defense led by the always great Dave Polzer. 

5(1). Wallman- If these rankings were purely based on what has happened on the field so far, Wallman would be ranked a bit further down. They have a 3-2 record but two of those wins were a 10 inning nail biter vs. a Schefkind team that’s now 0-5 and a victory over a short handed Team Jacoby. However, this team is really, really talented and should start rattling off wins unless they keep getting in their own way.

4(4). Bykofsky- Another year, another good Bykofsky team. The big difference between this year and last year has been the offense explosion. Last year Team Bykofsky was tied for last place in runs scored. So far in 2020, they are 5th. Defensively, they’re solid as always and the outfield is as tremendous as advertised.

3(NR). Jacoby- Before the season started, the buzz around the league was Wallman has the best team. After all the scrimmages and start to the regular season the buzz now is Look how good Team Jacoby is. They were a sleeper from the beginning but there are three big reasons why they have taken the leap from sleeper to top contender: Juska is bargain as a 5th round pick, Mamone is playing lights out the way he did before injuries set in, and Saler is playing like he did in 2018. Even if Granese misses a handful of games, Team Jacoby will enter the playoffs as a top seed.

2(2). Pollock- The #1 team in the Captains’ poll has certainly lived up to the hype with a 5-1 start(11-1 if you include the scrimmages). Everything people predicted about having two first round caliber players in Peragine and Martino has been true. Contributions though have come from everywhere in the lineup. The biggest challenge this year is going to be staying healthy as we already have major injuries to Schwag, Mike Paladino, and Rob Rozencwaig. The next few weeks might be tough. This ranking does NOT imply I’m predicting a Pollock win overJacoby on Sunday. 

1(5). Marrone- Speaking of predictions, I learned very early on to be careful when it comes to making Sunday predictions about my own team. Marrone learned that the hard way in his first game of the season. Since giving up 18 runs to Applebaum, Marrone has given up a total of FIVE runs in three games, outscoring the opposition 32-5 during that stretch. RIght now they have a run differential that is 1.9 runs lower than the nearest competition. The last time there was that large a difference between first and second place was in 2012. Dominant defense is always a recipe for a strong season.

2020 Pre-Season Power Rankings

These could be the only power rankings for awhile as we are unfortunately looking at a lengthy delay to the start of the season. As usual, I am only ranking the top half of the league. After the rankings, I wrote a little bit about the other 9 teams in the league. 

This year I'm organizing it in countdown style to build up the suspense. Happy holidays and I look forward to when we can start playing and seeing how this list changes throughout the year.


9.  Fradkin- If any team stands to benefit from the new Walks rule*, it's Fradkin. One storyline I’ll be curious to follow this season is how pitchers choose to navigate the Yee-Fradkin-Binder part of the lineup. For that matter, I’m wondering how Fradkin will choose to stack the top of this lineup. Yes, this lineup looks scary good(Even their 7th round pick, Jeremy Levine, almost batted .600 last year), but I think their defense has a few holes. It’s not bad enough to drop this team below .500, but I think it’s average enough to prevent them from being an elite team.

*  The new walk rule is that each team designates one player on their team. If this player walks more than two times then each additional walk will result in the designated player going to second base instead of first base.

8. Larocca- I have to admit, I was surprised when I looked to see what their record was last year and saw they only went 10-12. This is a team that clicked during the second half of the year and was right on the verge of making the finals. The analysis is easy when 9 of the top 10 players from last year are back this year. This is a group of guys who care about winning(not everyone does) and will be motivated to get back to where they were last year. Rumor has it that Ronnie has been working on perfecting his knuckleball so watch out.

7. Harris- In the captains’ poll, Team Harris was ranked 5th, so I don’t have them quite as high as some others. While the top of the lineup is certainly a formidable group, I feel their lineup could use an extra bat or two to extend the lineup a bit. One key could be Justin Krauss, who had the best offensive year of any of the Krauses in 2019. Maybe it won’t matter when you have Polzer at the top(the only player to hit over .500 every year last decade) followed by one of the most lethal combinations in Callow and Doc. WIth that outfield defense and Polzer on the mound, I don’t see how they win fewer than 12 wins. 

Random Trivia: This marks the 6th time Harris has drafted Callow with his first round pick. The only other time a captain has picked the same player in the first round more than three times since 2010 is Jacoby selecting Mamone(four times).

6. Steinberg- Spoiler alert for the rest of the power rankings, but Evan’s team is the top ranked club of anyone who has been a captain for fewer than seven years. That includes nine captains. Here’s another team I’ll be brief about since I wrote this team’s post-draft summary. This team’s success will depend on its pitching, which to me is their biggest question mark. A lot will depend on what rookie captain Steinberg does if rookie Goddard struggles on the mound. I think Jeff will be fine, but you just never know with rookie pitchers.  And now since this is the only appropriate place to put it, here is some rookie captain trivia. 

Since 2010, there have been 15 rookie captains. Only 5 of the 15 had winning seasons. Meanwhile,

6 out of 15 had what I deem as awful seasons, winning 8 or fewer games. If there is any theory that rookie captains will struggle their first season before becoming better captains, the numbers don’t really bear that out. There were 13 captains who we can compare first and second year win totals (Peragine only was a captain one year and we don’t know yet how Lombardi will do his second year). The average win total of these 13 captains their rookie seasons is 10.5. The average win total in their second year is 10.7.

5. Marrone- I usually am not a fan of handing the reins of a team over to rookies, but the Blackburns look like a 1-2 combo and not the 1-3 they were selected this year. Both have HR power and Martin was making phenomenal catches and showing off an amazing arm from left field in the mini Corona Tournament a few weeks ago. Seriously, do NOT run on him. Marrone is still a top pitcher, Jared  is still a top offensive threat and a steal as a 4. Speaking of bargains, Randell in the 9th round is coming off a season where he hit .564. I think there are a few defensive holes and a chance it takes a little while for the Blackburns to be consistently great, but even taking these issues into consideration, they’re one of the best teams in the league.

4. Bykofsky- To be honest, I was basically going to put Bykofsky in the top five before the draft even started. Every year he drafts a great team. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a year his team had a record worse than 14-8. This year the main attraction is their outfield. With Byko, Brock, Conselyea, Rubin, Anslow they have perhaps TOO good of an outfield. One of these above average defenders won’t even be playing the OF each inning. (Tip: I probably wouldn’t give Brock innings off). Their infield is solid as well. The Pargaments, Polguy, Turner will all be at least average and above average for the positions they play. Offensively, they will be fine even if they don’t score the most runs in the league. Brock, Andy Pargament, Jeff Turner all historically hit better than the league average for the round they were selected. I also expect Joe Pargament to improve on his .440 rookie season. I’m not sure who pitches when Alan Rubin misses games, but if I’m going that far to find a weakness, then that tells you something.

3. Lapine- Eluit Infante himself guarantees this team will be .500 by himself. I can see the Bomenblitts going first overall because they’re a combo pick that gives a team two first rounders, but I don’t get why so many people pass over a player who recently won back to back MVPs. As great as Eluit is, one player does not make a team and Lapine followed the slam dunk first round pick with mostly veterans who round for round can hit. That’s one thing I really like about this team more than most others- the depth of their lineup. If Roland can rebound offensively, Lucas Preiss continues his ascent, and Tim George hits the way he showed at tryouts, then this is an even scarier team. The downside? I think there is some vulnerability on the outfield defense.

2. Pollock- The winner of the captains’ poll has already met a little backlash since being crowned frontrunners. Since I have the floor, I’ll address two common criticisms. 

1. Not enough power. Power in the league is overrated. The more runs that are scored in a league, the less of a premium is placed on a home run being hit. Here’s proof: The two teams that led in home runs finished 13-9(good) and 9-13(not so good). Our team went 18-4 last year but finished 13th in the league in home runs. Team Bykofsky hit THREE home runs the entire  year, finishing last in that category. Team Record? 14-8. 
2. C+ Outfield Defense: Josh and I played RCF and LCF respectively for teams that went 18-4 and 17-5 over the last two seasons. Now I move back to LF where I’m better suited. Who takes over LCF? Only Joe Peragine, winner of 3 of the last 5 Defensive outfielders of the year! 

 

With two first round picks in Peragine and Martino, and Mike Paladino who is only two         

seasons removed from being considered a first rounder, the core of this team is as good as any in the league. Matt will throw strikes and let his defense do its job.

1. Wallman- This is the most complete team in the league. You want offense? Becker, Lugos, Schindelheim offer tremendous offensive value for where they were selected. Clamp and Meyer have been top of the lineup staples for championship caliber teams over the past few years, and Wallman and Younger still are capable of hitting close to .500. Lugos is one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and I can not say enough about Clamp’s pitching and defense. He’s a game changer. Make no question that Wallman as a shortstop in the 5th round is a huge bargain. Todd is a smart captain and if he didn’t think he was good enough to play SS anymore, he would’ve used one of his first four picks to shore up that key position. The one potential problem is the potential for this team to let personality clashes drive them apart. It’s no secret Lugos can be outspoken and it may not rub everyone the right way. It will be interesting to see if there are any lingering effects of certain current teammates making a big issue of Clamp’s “missed games” last year. Let the record show that as he was chosen in the third round with minimal scheduling conflicts this year, the dissenters were clearly WRONG in their attacks last year. Anyway, while there are strong personalities here, the one common element is they all care about winning.

Quick Notes:

Like I mentioned, it’s my personal policy to rank the top half of the team as to not focus on the cellar dwellers and give them bulletin board material when we play them. Here are some quick notes on the remaining teams in alphabetical order:

Applebaum- Never count out an Applebaum team even if they have a bad regular season. In his 10 years as a captain, Applebaum has been knocked out of the first round 7 times with a playoff  record of 2-13. Those other three seasons? All championship seasons. This year’s team features the Turanos properly selected(No more of that 4-5 bullshit from last year!) and Derek Melnyk who is looking to become the first player to win three championships in a row since….ever? My playoff spreadsheets don’t stretch out far enough to see if anyone’s done it. This is a team that I can easily see moving up the rankings as the year progresses.

Dimarco- The quick consensus on this team has been “All offense, no defense”. I agree with this sentiment. Since 2010 there have been six teams to finish in the top 3 in runs scored but the bottom 3 in runs against(3 of those teams were coached by Randell). Only one of these teams finished with a record above .500(Feldman’s 2017 team went 12-10). I think this year’s DImarco team can join this list.

Drashinsky- I think it was an average draft for Seth’s first year as captain, but I’m most impressed with how he was about to wait until the fourth round to nab his good friend, Jordan Rosenthal. I thought for sure Seth would take him in the third because it would be too big of a risk to wait until the fourth(even though he’d only have to hold his breath for four more picks). I’m rooting for Seth because he’s one of the nicest guys in the league. At 25 years of age, he must also be one of the youngest captains ever. I don’t know how this is relevant to team success, but I’m just pointing that out. 

Ferrarese- Chase Sandler is a future MVP candidate, Kyle Dunleavy is a potential batting champ, and Scott Seidenberg is a great talk show host who moonlights(or daylights?) as one of the best power hitters that can be drafted after the first two rounds. I think past this top three, runs might be hard to come by. I think the defense is solid and Mike will continue to improve on the mound, but a lot is going to fall on the shoulders of the big three hitters. It will go a long way If Noel can return to batting above .500. 

Goldfarb- By all accounts Jeff Paglio will be one of the best hitters in the league and getting the man voted the best pitcher in the league in the 7th round is a steal. Pat Specchio proved he just needed to get accustomed to the league before becoming a top hitter as his batting average continues to rise(.441-.531-.570 over the last three years), but can he hold down shortstop? Same with Alex Goldfarb making the move from OF to second base. As noted in my pre-season write up, Pat is the only returning player who hit over .400 last season. They’re going to need some other players to step up offensively.

Jacoby- Even though Jacoby is not in my top 9, I think his team is one of the top sleepers in the league. He drafted his three rookies(Juska, Navatta, Ortizo) one round later than I thought they’d go, and Granese is a steal in the third round even with the missed games. Do the missed games become a moot point with the delay of the season? Regardless, he’ll be around for the playoffs. After a four year span that saw three 16-win seasons, Jacoby had the worst three year regular season stretch of any captain last decade. This team should be the start of reversing the trend.

Lombardi- By drafting JZ, Brock Hor, and Eric Lurie, Lombardi came the closest he could to recreating our 2011 championship team. In fact, when our teams square up 8 out of the 9 remaining players from that team will be featured in the game. This is a likeable group of guys, but there were questions abound in the draft. Why not trade the first round pick when Conti could have been taken later in the round? Evan Rosenthal was high on our radar too, but his third round value is tied to him being a shortstop. It’s no secret that team chemistry was an issue last season- and that’s what happens when the losses pile up.. I wonder what will happen this year if the wins don’t come quickly. 

Pingaro- I’ll be honest, I have no idea how Roeigers and Valentino are defensively but I feel this team needs them to be studs there as much as they need to produce offensively. I went to do some research on how teams with two rookies in the first three picks did that season and found mixed results. Out of the five teams, one had a great regular season(2012 Lapine went 14-8), two were average, and two were awful(Both Beilis teams 2016-2017 going a combined 13-31). Even worse were these five teams’ combined playoff records: A combined 2-10. As I look up and down the lineup I see a lot of guys I LOVE as teammates and good ballplayers, but not necessarily steals for what rounds they were taken. It puts a lot of pressure on Roeigers and Valentino to outproduce their round’s value, or Paster is going to have to bat .800(which wouldn’t completely shock me),

Schefkind- Another team I covered in my post draft analysis. Age and injury concerns might be an issue especially if the league moves to double headers to make up for all the missed games. I don’t think there’s a glaring strength on this team, but on the other hand there is no glaring weakness. The team has consistent hitters throughout and while I don’t think anyone is going to win a gold glove on the team this year, there are no obvious holes defensively either. As long as Leo can keep throwing strikes in the summer heat, the team will hover around .500. 

Ranking The Champions(2010-2019)

My goal is to present a ranking of the last 10 championship teams in the most objective way possible. This means focusing on just the stats. In this case, I’m using run differential, league record,and where the team finished in the standings as the three main criteria. Before I get to the countdown, let me first list the league leaders in these categories for each year starting in 2010. 

Run Differential:

2010: Goldfarb 4.0

2011: Peragine 2.7

2012: Younger 5.5

2013: Wallman 4.8

2014: Applebaum 5.2

2015: Bykofsky 4.2

2016: Jacoby 4.6

2017: Pollock 4.5

2018: Pollock 4.6

2019: Pollock 3.4

Best Regular Season Record:

2010: Goldfarb(17-5)

2011: Pollock/Goldfarb/Carlin(14-8)

2012: Younger(18-4)

2013: Wallman/Jacoby(16-6)

2014: Applebaum(19-3)

2015: Beilis/Bykofsky(16-6)

2016: Marrone(17-5)

2017: Brock(16-6)

2018: Pollock(18-4)

2019: Pollock(17-5) 

Now onto the Rankings:

10. 2018 Team Applebaum

Regular Season: 8-14

Run Differential Ranking: 13th

An argument can be made that the 2019 team is more deserving of the 10th spot due to run differential, but there is no getting around the fact that this was an 8-14 team that won the championship. The whole post season was defined as the year all the favorites collapsed early in the playoffs. It was only fitting that a team with this bad of a regular season would end up being crowned champions. 

9. 2019 Team Applebaum

        Regular Season: 11-11

          Run Differential Ranking: 16th

Ok, this is painful since it was my team on the losing end of this championship. If this was a ranking of the biggest upset in the championships, this very well would be #1. The 11-11 team defeating the 17-5 team. The 16th best run differential team beating the #1 ranked run differential team. Applebaum’s 2018-2019 back to back championships are a testament to getting hot at the right time and defying the odds.

8. 2012 Team Harris

      Regular Season: 12-10

        Run Differential Ranking: 8th

This is another one that hurts. Team Pollock was 17-5 and one win away from the Finals when Harris came storming back, won game 2 and then game 3 of the semi-finals. In fact, if this was a list of the most impressive run en route to a championship, the 2012 Harris team might take the top spot. Not only did they beat a 17-5 team in the semi-finals, but they defeated Younger’s 18-4 team which also featured the best run differential of any team the entire decade. 2012 Team Younger is the best team statistically not to win the championship. The Championship Harris team is the last on this list to have a negative run differential on this list. From #7 onward, each team ranked in the top 5 in run differential and had a record of 14-8 or better.

7. 2015 Team Granese

    Regular Season: 14-8

     Run Differential Ranking: 5th

This team had a very good season, but some may remember this as the year they got Pat Brock as a fortuitous 3rd round mid-season replacement. Certainly that helped propel them to the title. Here’s some Championship trivia: The 2015 Granese club is the only championship team that went to a third game in every playoff series.

6. 2016 Team Goldfarb

    Regular Season: 14-8

     Run Differential Ranking: 4th

Goldfarb had one of the best decades of any captains, finishing .500 or better in all but one season. It’s almost hard to believe that this was his only trip to the finals.  Even though two other teams had a better record in 2016, I remember going into the playoffs thinking Goldfarb was going to be almost unstoppable. This was the first year the Brocks had a penalty, which enabled Guy to get them mid first round when they would have normally gone first overall. Justin and Pat Brock became the first two players to win back to back championships in 10s.

5. 2011 Team Pollock

    Regular Season: 14-8

     Run Differential Ranking: 5th

I had a hard time deciding whether the 5th-7th spots on this list considering all three teams under consideration had the same record and similar run differential rankings. What set 2011 Team Pollock apart from the two previous clubs is that we finished the season with the best record. I remember entering this playoffs thinking we were the best team, and I think we played with a swagger that definitely helped. No doubt that was aided by our ability to pick UH Right each round and teams being afraid to pitch to JZ(who was intentionally walked literally 20+ times during the playoffs). The reality is we only had the 5th best run differential and only .4 runs better than our 11-11 Finals opponent, Team Beilis. Still, the 2011 Team Pollock is one of four teams to finish with the best record and cap it off with the title. 

4. 2010 Team Lapine

   Regular Season: 14-8

    Run Differential Ranking: 2nd

Looking back at the first four picks, it’s no wonder why this team won it all. Glen Roland in the first round, in what would be his MVP year, Justin Brock in the second round, rookie Dave Polzer in the third(the last time a rookie was drafted in the first three rounds and also win the championship), and Pat Brock in the fourth. Just like with the 2016 Goldfarb team, there were three other clubs that had better records in 2010 than Lapine’s team but they still always seemed like they were the team to beat.

3. 2013 Team Jacoby

   Regular Season: 16-6

    Run Differential Ranking: 2nd

It may be hard to believe, since for the last three seasons Jacoby has gone 7-15, 7-15,8-14 and hosted both play-in games, but there was a time when Jacoby’s teams were a juggernaut. Starting with this 2013 team, Team Jacoby went 16-6 in three out of the next four seasons. What some people may have forgotten is they were one miraculous Barth Frank catch away from being eliminated in Round One. After that, they never looked back, winning every game afterwards. They’re one of only two teams in the 2010s to only lose one playoff game during their championship run.

2. 2017 Team Pollock

   Regular Season: 15-7

    Run Differential Ranking: 1st

The beginning of a magical three year run that featured three consecutive 15+ win seasons with the best run differential in each(could be a 4th this year?) This 2017 team felt special as soon as we drafted Eluit and Clamp in the first two rounds. I’ll always remember the gutsy game 3 of the semi-finals against Team Feldman where half our team was playing injured. It’s a reminder of how close each championship team comes at one some point in the playoffs from being eliminated. The 2017 Pollock team is one of only two that won the title while also having the best run differential that season. The other team is….

1. 2014 Team Applebaum

   Regular Season: 19-3

    Run DIfferential Ranking: 1st

The greatest team in Marlboro Softball history. Everything clicked for this team as if there was some magical force at play. I mean, even their 10th round pick batted .553 that year. It’s a team that averaged a decade best 14.9 runs per game(More than a full run better than the second best of the decade). I remember a member of the team, who will remain nameless, telling me “We would have averaged even more if we didn’t keep mercying every team”. This team earned that swagger. It’s funny that Applebaum bookends this list. His 2018-2019 championship teams got hot at the right time but clearly did not have the best team factoring in regular season performance. This team, however, is hands down the most dominant team of the decade. The only to hit the Trifecta of best record, best run differential, and win the championship.

Third Annual Pre-Season Captains' Poll

It's time for the the first entry of the 2020 Marlboro Softball blog. The pre-season Power Rankings will come out within a few weeks, but first is what is becoming one of my favorite pieces to put together: The Pre-Season Captains' Poll.

To review how this works, I send out an email to all the captains asking them to rank the five best teams in the league. I then award 5 points for the number choice, 4 points for the number 2 choice, etc. If two teams are tied, the team that appears on more ballots wins the tie breaker. This year, 15 out of 18 captains submitted their choices. Thank you captains for your participation. This is the best turnout yet!

Before we get to this season's results, here's a quick breakdown of the previous two seasons:

In 2018, Team Goldfarb led a cursed group as the entire top 5 group lost in the first round of the playoffs. (Goldfarb, Marrone, Bykofsky, Brock, Wallman)

In 2019, Team Brock dominated the polls thanks to the Turanos steal. Team Brock had 29 points while second place Team Wallman had 9. 

Both winners of the previous Captains' Polls struggled to live up to the expectations. Goldfarb finished 12-10 and lost in the first round while Brock went 11-11 and made it to the Semi-Finals. Semi-Finals aren't bad, but it is not a fitting end for a team predicted to dominate.

Let's hope the same isn't true for this year's winner :) 

Here are the results.

Place          Team           Points       # of ballots

1               Pollock         43               12

2               Wallman       38              11

3               Bykofsky      37               11

4               Lapine          28               8

5               Harris           21               8

6               Marrone       16               6

7               Fradkin        12               4

8              Larocca         7                4

9              Steinberg       7               3

10            Goldfarb       7                2

A few notes: 

1. These top 10 teams happen to be the only teams to appear on multiple ballots.

2. More than any other year, there is not a consensus top overall team. As Scott mentioned on his podcast, many people around the league have Pollock, Wallman, and Bykofsky in some order as the leading top three teams. This captains' poll confirms that thought.

3. The Pre-Season thought is that this will be the year of the veteran captain. The entire top 6 is comprised of captains who have had their own team since at earliest 2013. 

I look forward to write more about the season as the year moves forward and especially look forward to getting on the field and seeing how these predictions hold up.