Sunday Preview/Predictions

Thanks to the NL dominating last week's games, I haven't too much success predicting these matchups. We have a lot of games this week, and the league could have quite a big shakeup. For instance, before last week it would have been easy to say Team Younger was the best in the league. However if (and this is a big IF) they lose both games this week, they're in the middle of the pack at 5-4. In addition to Younger, other teams playing two games include:

Granese
Spiegel
Beilis
Lapine
Harris

Out of these teams I think Lapine and Harris have the most at stake. Team Harris looked very strong before the season, but a 3-6 record has them in danger of falling well short of expectations. They don't have it easy this week playing Younger and Lapine, but if they can win both these games they'll be making a strong statement.

And speaking of Lapine, their reputation of being among the league's elite has clearly taken a hit during their 4 game losing streak. They're the only team with a losing record that has scored more runs than given up, and I still think they're one of the better teams in the league. However, another disappointing week would have them at 3-7 for the year. That's why Harris vs. Lapine is one of the more appealing matchups this week. Two pre-season favorites in desperate need to turn their seasons around.

Another great matchup is going to be the early Marlboro El game between Spiegel and Feldman. At this point there is no disputing how good Mitch's crew is, but it's Team Feldman that is quietly establishing themselves as a team to be reckoned with. After a roster shakeup, their team has made a 180 degree turn from their eawrly struggles. Case in point: During their three game winning streak they've won by 8, 6, and 12 runs. Each win has been decisive. In the 3 games preceding these, they've lost by 9, 13, and 13. Clearly Feldman has turned their season around. Even though on paper it looks like an upset, I'm picking Feldman to continue their hot streak vs. a very tough Team Spiegel.

Here are all my picks for the week with the predicted winner in bold.

Spiegel vs. Feldman
Granese vs. Carlin
Granese vs. Spiegel
Applebaum vs. Wallman
Sarcona vs. Randell
Beilis vs. Peragine
Beilis vs. Lapine
Harris vs. Lapine
Younger vs. Harris
Younger vs. Schefkind

Power Rankings

Power Rankings:
Last week's rankings are in parenthesis.

1.Pollock (2)
Another tough game playing Team Goldfarb.
2.Goldfarb (3)
They will earn the top spot if they beat Team Pollock this Sunday.
3.Spiegel (4)
4.Younger (1)
This is a decent sized drop from last week's top spot but it's mostly due to the performances by the top three teams than anything else.
5.Carlin (6)
Two of their three losses have been by one run. A win this week will ensure they move to the top 4 next week.
6.Granese (7)
A pair of very tough games this week vs. Carlin and Spiegel.
7.Peragine (5)
8.Sarcona (10)
9.Wallman (8)
I keep expecting this team to take off and establish themselves as one of the league's elite. After this week's game they're playing two teams whose combined record is 14-5.
10.Feldman (12)
No team has gone through a bigger roster transformation than Team Feldman, and so far the results have been very positive.
11. Lapine (9)
Something tells me Team Lapine is going to start a nice winning streak very soon.
12. Beilis (11)
13. Schefkind (13)
A 2-7 record for a team who has only given up 4 runs than they've scored sounds like bad luck to me. The wins should come eventually.
14. Harris (14)
As much as I thought Team Goldfarb would struggle this year, I thought Team Harris would dominate. It's not too late for a turnaround, but I'm very close to admitting I may have been wrong.
15. Applebaum (15)
16. Randell (16)

Wednesday Predictions

Carlin vs. Schefkind

Winner: Schefkind

I think we're in line for an upset. I like Carlin's team, but Schefkind's squad's record has to start matching their runs scored/against totals eventually. They've been at the tail end of some tough losses this year. They need a good, surprising win to start turning it around. This is where they get it.

Randell vs. Wallman

Winner: Wallman

I still believe Team Wallman is one of the best in the league. A win here would get them closer to the division title I think they'll end up having. A loss here would make me second guess my original team outlook.

Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based almost entirely on team record, runs scored/runs against, and recent performance. The number in parenthesis indicate last week's ranking.

1. Younger (1)
2. Pollock (2)
3. Goldfarb (4)
4. Spiegel (3)
5. Peragine (5)
6. Carlin (7)
7. Granese (9)
8. Wallman (6)
9. Lapine (8)
10. Sarcona (10)
11. Beilis (11)
12. Feldman (14)
13. Schefkind (12)
14. Harris (13)
15. Applebaum (15)
16. Randell (16)

Notes: Team Younger has the top spot until they lose again. Hopefully that will be this week to Team Pollock. Speaking of Team Pollock, the next two weeks are as tough as it gets playing Younger and Goldfarb.

AL vs. NL Runs Scored/ Sunday Predictions

Teams may have been arbitrarily been placed in the American League or National League, but there certainly has been a great divide between the two leagues this year. Staying true to their MLB counterparts, the AL has earned the reputation as home of the slugfest while the NL prides itself on defense. The top scoring NL team would have the 7th best offense in the AL while the best defensive AL team would only have the 6th best in that category in the NL. With the second week of interleague games coming up this Sunday, I thought I’d look at the runs scored numbers for both leagues.

So far there have been 64 games played. 56 of these have been intraleague (AL vs. AL/ NL vs.NL) while the other 8 have been interleague. Here are the runs scored totals for all intraleague games:

NL= 6.25 runs per game
AL= 10.07 runs per game

Last week was the first full week of interleague games. Here are the runs scored statistics based on the 8 NL vs. AL games so far this season:

NL= 8.38 runs per game
AL= 9.38 runs per game

It’s interesting that when the two teams play each other, the runs scored gap between the two leagues shrinks. Maybe the answer is simply the NL has better defense than the AL. Maybe the answer is it’s only been 8 games. It’ll be interesting (at least to me) to see how these numbers change after Sunday.

Although the AL is scoring one run more per game than the NL in interleague games, they are only 3-5 in these matchups. This week I’m going to support my fellow American League teams and predict them to win almost all of this week’s games. I think the AL will continue to score runs in bunches and those incredible NL runs against averages will begin to rise. Here are my quick predictions:

Projected winner in bold:

Carlin vs. Beilis
Wallman vs. Granese
Feldman vs. Applebaum
Peragine vs. Sarcona
Schefkind vs. Harris
Goldfarb vs. Randell
Spiegel vs. Lapine

Wednesday Night Predictions

Team Spiegel vs. Team Goldfarb

Winner: Goldfarb

I wish I could predict a tie. There are two important signs point towards Spiegel. They have a better runs scored differential and an offense that's a better fit for Union Hill. Team Goldfarb plays great defense but there's no defending a ball that goes over the fence. On the other hand, Goldfarb is the one team who is on a hotter streak than Spiegel. I want to see what it feels like to be on Team Goldfarb's side for one week so I'll pick their squad in what should be a great game.

Team Harris vs. Team Sarcona

Winner: Sarcona

These are two teams who should score plenty of runs. I think Team Harris is still capable of turning their season around, but I'm picking Sarcona to rebound from Sunday's loss.

Mea Culpa

In every man's life there are moments when he must look deep into his own soul and ask some of life's most difficult questions. Who am I? What is my purpose in this world? Am I fulfilling my potential as a human being? Am I giving Team Goldfarb enough credit in the 2011 Marlboro Mens Softball League?

The first three questions have given me pause for thought, but it is that last essential question which has caused me great trouble. Every time I thought I figured them out and they would play like I originally predicted, they proved me wrong. It is a very difficult situation when something you have accepted as an absolute truth is consistently proven wrong. At first you write it off as an exception, but eventually you have to confront reality. I have to face the truth. Team Goldfarb is a very good team.

Their defense is suffocating. Their pitching is immaculate. Their baserunning is impeccable. Their hitting is astounding. So I am truly sorry to Alex Goldfarb, Scott Bornstein, Rob Bykofsky, Guy Goldfarb, Justin Bykofsky, Jordan Krant, Larry Kaplow, Mark Goldberg, Nick Martino, Mike Strauss, Matt Polguy, Jay Rosenthal, and Thomas Tvrdik. You have my and the league's attention. I apologize and you have proven me wrong.

Sincerely,
Mitch Pollock

P.S. This Wednesday's game against Spiegel is going to be tough. I'm not sure who I am picking yet.

Sunday Predictions

Like everything else on this site, this post is just for fun. My one rule is I'm not going to make any predictions involving my team's games. Just assume I think our team is going to win every game for the rest of the season 

Beilis vs. Lapine

Winner: Lapine

I think Team Lapine is going to break out again and score a ton of runs after some low scoring efforts.

Granese vs. Schefkind:

Winner: Schefkind

Amazingly, Schefkind is 2-5 despite scoring more runs than they have given up. Granese has lost two in a row, but I think they'll lose one or two more before getting back on track.

Spiegel vs. Randell

Winner: Spiegel

Tough matchup for Randell to play one of the hottest teams in the league. Will Spiegel give up less than 100 runs for the year? Let the watch begin.

Carlin vs. Randell

Winner: Carlin

Before the season started, I thought Carlin had the third best team and it looks like they're starting to play up to those expectations.

Goldfarb vs. Wallman

Winner: Wallman

Ok, so I may have been slightly wrong about Goldfarb's squad coming into the year. However, the streak of underestimation is going to continue just a little longer. Wallman's team was my preseason pick for the best team in the league and they've been on a roll lately. I will issue a public apology to Team Goldfarb if they win this game.

Younger vs. Carlin

Winner: Younger

This is a good matchup, but I'm going to go with the team with the best record in the league. This should be a close one.

Sarcona vs. Feldman

Winner: Sarcona

I think Sarcona has the best team in a very tight NL West. They need to beat Team Feldman to start separating themselves from the rest of the pack.

Harris vs. Peragine

Winner: Peragine

Is it time to give up on a team I thought would go 13-9 before the season? I only had Peragine winning one less game and they're hot right now. I'm going with my team's division rival and then maybe Team Harris will start a winning streak next week.

Peragine vs. Lapine

Winner: Lapine

I think this is the game of the day. A sweep for either of these teams will firmly put them among the league's elite. Like I said before, I'm expecting Lapine's bats to be on fire this week, so I think they'll pull this one out. This could end up being the highest scoring game of the week as long as both teams aren't too tired from their earlier games.

Wednesday Predictions

Every Monday I'll post my predictions for Wednesday's games. Predictions for Sunday's matchups won't be posted until Friday or Saturday. There's no way me of knowing who is missing from each team, so unless I have that information, I'm going to assume that everyone on the roster will be there.


Wednesday, June 8 2011

Lapine vs. Applebaum

Winner: Lapine

Upsets happen all the time in our league, but it's hard to pick against Lapine. After losing two in a row, Team Lapine should be itching to get back on track. The highest scoring team in the league has only scored 11 runs in their last two games, so I fully expect a 15+ run performances versus Team Applebaum who has given up more than 12 runs per game.


Peragine vs. Goldfarb

Winner: Peragine

This should be a great matchup between two teams who are on nice winning streaks. So far I'm wrong about Goldfarb's season performance. Before the year started I thought their good defense wouldn't make up for their noticeable lack of power. Team Peragine, however, has lived up to strong pre- season expectations and currently has the third highest winning percentage. Although I have Goldfarb ranked one place higher on the power rankings, I'm leaning towards Peragine because the game is at Union Hill. I wouldn't be surprised if an over the fence homerun by Turner ends up being the difference in a tight ballgame.

Power Rankings 6/5/11

Every week I will post power rankings for our league. As of now, I plan on doing a separate ranking for the National and American League. I'm willing to change that if people would rather have a combined list. Like the team power rankings seen on ESPN and Sportline, a major component of where a team is placed will be based on overall record. However, a team's recent performance and overall runs scored/against will also factor into these rankings. In parenthesis I will put the previous week's ranking for the team. Since this is the first week, the number in parenthesis will be based on my pre-season projections.

6/6/11 update: I've decided to combine both leagues for the rankings:

Pre-Season Ranking in parenthesis.

1. Younger (6)
2. Pollock (5)
3. Spiegel (2)
4. Goldfarb (15)
5. Peragine (5)
6. Wallman (1)
7. Carlin (3)
8. Lapine (8)
9. Granese (13)
10. Sarcona (9)
11. Beilis (16)
12. Schefkind (10)
13. Harris (4)
14. Feldman (11)
15. Applebaum (14)
16. Randell (12)

Pre-Season Projected Standings

Two things are going to jump out about this post:

1) The "pre season" projected standings are being posted a third way through the season.

2) There's no commentary for the picks.

When I did my thorough projections right after the 2011 draft, it didn't occur to me I should create a blog for the league. This is the very first time these predictions are being made public! Originally, I graded each team based on offense and defense, however in typical me fashion, I have since lost all the grades. I promise to do a better job maintaining these papers next season.

Some of the picks already look like busts, while others look like they have a pretty good shot at coming true. It'll easy to get an idea of which teams I thought very highly of coming out of the draft. Of course, due to various reasons, rosters have changed since these projections were made. At the end of the season I'll compare my projections with the one on our league's website to see which did a better job. Enjoy:



Team Name (Team Number): Projected Record
National League East:

Spiegel (3): 14-8
Harris(2): 13-9
Younger(1): 12-10
Applebaum(4): 9-13

National League West:

Sarcona(7): 10-12
Granese(5): 9-13
Goldfarb(8): 8-14
Beilis(6): 7-15


American League East:

Pollock(11): 12-10
Peragine(9): 12-10
Schefkind(12): 10-12
Randell(10): 10-12

American League West:

Wallman(15): 15-7
Carlin(16): 13-9
Lapine(13): 12-10
Feldman(14): 10-12