Week Two Predictions

With only one week in the books, I’m already rethinking how I feel about certain teams this year. Weeks 2 and 3 will go a long way in determining which teams look decent on paper but crumble on the field and which teams are gelling better than expected. There are several teams who are looking to justify lofty pre-season expectations and others looking to prove that the first week is just the beginning of great things to come. I’ll highlight four games this week that I feel have the most long term meaning for the teams involved. Once again, I will not make a final prediction for any games involving my own team.

Mamone vs. Lapine

Team Mamone is built for Union Hill, but with Mamone and Turner missing this week, the scene is set for Lapine to continue to take most of the league by surprise. This isn’t going to be a cakewalk though. Mamone is still going to bring it with their bats this Sunday. The question is whether or not they have enough outfielders to keep Team Lapine in check. While Team Mamone is going to win a lot of games this year, I think they’re missing enough guys to fall to a very underrated Team Lapine.

Winner: Lapine

Wallman vs. Harris

Before the season started I imagined Team Wallman as this year’s Team Goldfarb- a team that wins a lot of games by playing solid defense and getting on base as opposed to hitting a lot of homeruns. But while one week might not be enough to draw any conclusions, Wallman’s disappointing performance against Lapine makes me wonder if the lack of any consistent power threat is going to cost this team. The good news is If there is any field that can showcase this team’s strengths and hide its weakness then it’s Municipal. It’s also the perfect field to play Team Harris who has several fly ball hitters who might be silenced by the dreaded Municipal outfield. This game is crucial to Wallman. If they win, then they can write off the first week as an anomaly. If they lose on a field that’s tailor made to their strengths, then they could be in for a dreadful season.

Winner: Wallman

Schefkind vs. Feldman

Looking back on it, my 13-9 Schefkind prediction may have been a tad bit optimistic. While I still think the team is well-balanced, I don’t think they deserve a better outlook than teams like Mamone, Lapine, Goldfarb, or their Sunday’s opponent Team Feldman. This is clearly a different Fledman team from years past(despite a third of the team being the Feldmans themselves) and I actually see them as the top team in the NL East this season. These are two good teams, but I think this will be a big Statement game by Feldman’s crew. One side note: What should Team Feldman’s theme song be this year? I think for many people “We Are Family” is the family song that immediately comes to mind, maybe because it was adopted by the 1979 Pirates. For me it's always been Sly Stone’s “Family Affair” so I’m going with that.  I hate disco anyway.

Winner: Feldman

Pollock vs. Carlin

With Ron Carlin going a perfect 3 for 3 and Brad Goldstein hitting 2 hrs, everything seemed to be in its right place for Team Carlin to win its first of many games this year. So how did they end up losing to Beilis? Clearly, the supporting cast is going to have to step it up and help Brad, Mark, and Ron if they’re going to rise to the top of the American League. Team Pollock’s first week, however, went as predicted(by some people at least) as we used a heavy dose of offense to beat Harris. This is a matchup that has bigger ramifications of Carlin’s team loses than if they win. If Team Carlin loses, then perhaps the much discussed penalty was fair and Team Carlin isn’t the superpower some of us thought. A Pollock win would also show the league that Team Pollock’s 2011 season wasn’t a fluke.

For the rest of the matchups the projected winner will be in bold:

Beilis vs. Sarcona- Beilis is coming off a huge victory over Carlin. One or two more wins then maybe I’ll become a believer. I still think Sarcona will rebound from a tough first week.

Jacoby vs. Younger- Same exact commentary as Beilis vs. Sarcona. Only difference is Jacoby’s squad might need a few more weeks for their abundance of rookies to get acclimated to the league. Team Younger might be off to a much better start than I originally predicted.

Applebaum vs. Goldfarb- One of only two games where both teams were victorious in week one. I see this as one of those weeks where Ari Mesmer goes 5 for 5 and Schindelheim hits a huge 3-run home run at some point.

Granese vs. Randell- Randell’s big hitters will be salivating for the chance to play at Union Hill.

2012 Power Rankings

We’re finally here! I had a lot of fun working on the power rankings last year, so I’m bringing it back for the 2012 season. While one would think that the rankings should directly reflect the predictions I made a few weeks ago, there are slight variations. There are a few teams I like a little more (and a little less) since I first did the season preview. Still, I’m going to mostly stick to my original thoughts for the initial power rankings. Since one week of games is not enough to accurately judge a team, I’m going to do the next installment right before the first Wednesday night games. From that point on, the rankings will be updated every week.

  My original pre-season record prediction is in parenthesis.

1. Carlin(16-6)
2. Pollock(13-9)
3. Wallman (13-9)
4. Schefkind(13-9)
5. Mamone (11-11)
6. Feldman (12-10)
7. Lapine (12-10)
8. Randell (12-10)
9. Goldfarb (11-11)
10. Jacoby(10-12)
11. Sarcona (9-13)
12. Harris (10-12)
13. Applebaum (9-13)
14. Granese (8-14)
15. Beilis (9-13)
16. Younger (8-14)

AL West Predictions

AL West:

Team Carlin:

What’s To Like: Any discussion of Team Carlin has to start with the Big Three the same way as any talk of the 1927 Yankees starts with Ruth/Gehrig. It has become the great debate of the league: What is the right penalty for a team that comes in with, by the most conservative estimates, two “1s” and a “2”? Most people, including myself, feel the penalty is too light especially by taking a look around the league. Having what is essentially two “13s” isn’t far too different from what many teams already have. I count at least eight teams whose bottom two players either performed like 13s last year or were drafted in the 13th round in 2011. It’s a philosophical argument but I’d always take a team that has three guys who are as good as Brad, Mark, and Ron even if their bottom of the lineup is especially weak.

It is to Ron’s credit as a great captain that the bottom of his lineup isn’t even that week compared to other teams. Anybody who starts and ends their discussion of Team Carlin with their “Big Three” is ignoring how solid the rest of Team Carlin looks to be. Lehman, Freeman, Weinstein all provide solid pop throughout the lineup. This is a team that can hit, field, and pitch as well as any team in the league.

Team Questions: Hmm. Let’s see. . . If you are a contrarian thinker and believe Ron is a .500 hitter then he is due to bat under .300 this year. If Brad Goldstein has the same season this year as he had in 2011 then he’ll have 0 runs and 0 RBI. They’ll also get nothing out of their 4th pick of the draft.

Best Draft Pick: Ron as a three is pretty damn good. Seriously though, if Darren Freeman can have the season he had in 2010 then he’ll be a bargain in the 6th round. Bickoff hits a lot better than any other 13th round pick.

Prediction: 16-6


Team Harris:

What’s To Like: It was very surprising to see the league MVP traded at the draft, but Justin Callow is a first rounder who will most likely improve on his rookie of the year numbers. Kushner has a chance to make an immediate impact at the plate which would give Team Harris a solid heart of the lineup.

Team Questions: I’m always cautious about projecting rookies to succeed in their first year, and this is a team that is not only relying on one to provide a lot of power, but also to handle pitching duties. If things don’t work out, this could be a very tough year for Harris.

Best Draft Pick: I don’t see any true bargains, so if Kastner can prove to be a dominant pitcher this year, he’ll prove to be a very undervalued 8th rounder.

Prediction: 10-12



Team Lapine:

What’s To Like: This team is built around solid defenders. Roland is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league and Phil Lipomi has a chance of being one of the top 2 or 3 shortstops this season. Mike Perloff may miss a bunch of regular season games but besides from an off year in 2011, he’s been one of the most underrated players in the league. But the real key to this team is the man on the mound. You can’t win in this league without pitching and they have one of the best in Drapkin.

Team Questions: While there are solid hitters all over this lineup, this is definitely not a team built for Union Hill. Defense will have to prevail during stretches of the season.

Best Draft Pick: Jordan Krant will hit .500 this season. You heard it here first! I think Perloff is a great player and to avoid picking the last player in the draft by getting Stu Krauss included as a 13 was a very nice move. Phil Lipomi may have gone in the second round, but I have very little doubt he’ll still be there as second round option in 2013.

Prediction: 12-10


Team Sarcona:

What’s To Like: The Preisses are among the biggest winners in the league. Despite taking a year off, expectations are sky high for Jordan to establish himself as one of the top players in the league. Jordan may not hit for tremendous power, but with Lenny, and Eric Golden behind him, he won’t have to.

Team Questions: They are expected to miss a combined 16-18 games from the Preisses and Eric Golden(3 out of their first 4 picks). Although they’ll be there for the playoffs, they might have to face a difficult road to the finals if regular season games have to be sacrificed.

Best Draft Pick: Despite the missed games, Eric Golden was the perfect pick in the third round to give this team much needed power.

Prediction: 9-13