After a longer than expected break, thanks to storm damage and power outage, it is time to update the Power Rankings. Before we get to the rankings, I thought I’d bring up the biggest trend we’re seeing this season; the uptick in runs scored. We currently have eleven teams averaging 11+ runs per game. Last year there were only TWO teams that averaged that many. (Trivia: The year that features the most 11+ runs per game teams was 2016 when 8 teams averaged that many runs. Strangely, only ONE team averaged 11 runs the next season). So what is causing the increase in offense? I have three theories:
We have more offensive talent in the league this year(Call it the Dimarco’s Friends factor)
An extended Spring Training meant that more teams started the year in mid-season form.
More Union Hill games means more Home runs and runs(Call it the Eric Becker factor).
The 17 game schedule means no offensive records will likely be broken this year, but if the trend continues next year then it’ll be fun to see which post 2010 historic feats get challenged.
Back to the rankings. Even though I did not publish my update last week, I did a personal list. Last week’s rankings will appear in parenthesis.
Bubbling Under: As a rule I don’t include teams under .500 in the official power rankings, so here are a few words on three sub .500 teams that should appear back in the PRs soon.
Goldfarb- It’s almost impossible to compete when you have a 1 who is hindered by injuries. By all accounts, Jeff Paglio would have been a top player this year but we’re going to have to wait a year to see it happen. Trading an injured Paglio for Justin Brock(My pick for best player of the 2010s) will move Goldfarb back to the power rankings pretty quickly.
Jacoby- Once again, here’s a team suffering from missed games and injuries to key players. We all knew Granese would miss some games, so it’s hard to use that as an excuse especially since that’s why he was available in the third round. But Saler’s injury left Jacoby without his 2 for a few games as well. Bottom line: Don’t judge Jacoby by their 4-5 record.
Bykofsky- They may be 10th in overall seeding, but Bykofsky is 6th in run differential. The truth is unlike Goldfarb and Jacoby, Bykofsky can’t really blame this slow start on major injuries or missed games. There’s a chance this year’s team might just end up hovering around .500. They make the Bubbling Under list based on pre-season expectations and Bykofsky’s stellar track record. Never count them out.
Power Rankings:
9. Ferrarese(7): Gluck-Dunleavy-Sandler-Scotty Podcast is as scary as they come, especially on UH. However, you can’t ignore Podolla, who is having a breakout season, Pat Thomas who has serious power for a 9th round pick, and Cowboy Mike who…..well, he once batted cleanup for us in the playoffs. On Sunday we have a rematch of our pre-season battle on UH Right and if that game was any indication, it will be a tough matchup.
8. Dimarco (5): Last week I would have had Dimarco all the way up to number 5 thanks to seeing first hand how dangerous of a team they have. The “All offense, no defense” label slapped on them is misleading. First of all, picking Deluise to pitch was one of the best picks of the entire draft. He’s going to be a star pitcher for a long time. Second of all, Saglietto plays a solid SS. So having a solid SS, very good pitcher, and one of the best LCF in the field automatically elevates Dimarco’s defense to at least an average level.They’re ranked 13th in Runs Against which obviously isn’t great, but here’s the thing: When you have have an offense as great as Dimarco’s, you can get away with that kind of defense. You can’t come out flat against Dimarco. They’ll make you pay.
7. Wallman (8): The offense is as advertised. Becker is crushing the ball, Lugos is approaching .600, and Meyer is having his best year yet setting the table. The fact is though if a team has to switch around their LF, RCF, 2B,SS mid-season then there’s some cause for concern. The move may prove successful (This is my gratuitous mention that we switched shortstops right before the 2011 playoffs en route to a championship), but it’s a sign there were some holes not detected by the prognosticators when making them pre-season favorites. Overall, I think they have enough offense and great pitching to keep them near the top of the league.
6. Larocca (10): It took almost half the season, but Team Larocca is now playing like the team that was one inning away from making the championship last year. With so many returning players from last year’s team, it feels safe to compare these the 2019 and 2020 Larocca teams. If there’s one area of concern, it’s consistent run scoring. Having practically the same roster means they have a similar runs scored average to last year(10.9 vs last year’s 11.3). However where 11.3 runs per game was enough to have them ranked 2nd in runs scored average, 10.9 runs has them only ranked 12th this year.
5. Steinberg (2): The 7 game win streak may have come to an ugly stop Wednesday night, but they deserve to be in the top third of the league. It will be interesting to see how the rookie Captain’s team responds after a loss. As we saw in the beginning of the year, they responded incredibly well after a rough first two games. Like I mentioned with Team Larocca, Steinberg’s club is going to need the offensive numbers to pick up in order to stay successful.
4. Pingaro (6): Quick Trivia Question: Which two players had the most at bats in the previous decade? Number one is Justin Bykofsky which makes sense. He played all 10 years, stayed healthy, lives and breathes softball, and always bats at the top of the lineup. #2 is Pat Pingaro. The only part that makes this a little surprising is that Pat did not always bat at the top of the lineup like Bykofsky. What this shows though is how much Pat is devoted to this league, which is also what makes him a great captain. It’s only his first year, but you already know when you play Pingaro you’re going against a team that will strategize based on league knowledge and make minimal mistakes on the field.
3. Pollock (4): While the team’s success shouldn’t be shocking based on the pre-season captains’ poll, the fact that we have the number one offense despite the lack of a true power hitter might be a little surprising. The top of the lineup has been incredible, with five players hitting .550 or better. Only one team since 2010 has finished the season with four players .550 or higher: 2014 Team Pollock. Two potential question marks pre-season were our outfield defense and Matt as full-time pitcher. Our outfield defense held up even in Schwag’s absence(welcome back!), and Matt has been thrown strikes consistently in his second season as a full-time pitcher(He was our starting pitcher in the aforementioned 2014 season). Team Pollock has a chance to lead the league in Run Differential for an incredible four years in a row.
2. Harris (3): Why does it seem that Harris has emerged as a league front-runner in quiet fashion? It must be because none of their players engage in a lot of social media chatter, or go on podcasts making bold predictions, or write a power rankings blog promoting their team’s success (gulp). The pre-season prediction was a modest 12-10 and my pre-season power rankings had them in a similarly good but not great 7th position. Even with an offense that features two Silverbergs, Callow, and Polzer, I thought they were 1 or 2 bats short to score with the best in the league. They’ve proven me wrong by being ranked 4th in Runs Scored Average. One aspect that I never questioned was their pitching and defense, which has resulted in the top Runs Against Average that is a full run better than the closest competitor.
1. Marrone (1): It was only last week it looked like Marrone’s team was head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Fast forward to now and they technically “only” have the third best record. An argument can be made that Wednesday’s loss should knock them from the top spot. So why hasn’t it? I feel they were so far ahead of the rest of the league up until this week that one bad game shouldn’t be enough to completely erase the gap. There are many factors to why Marrone’s club is so strong, but this week I’ll start at the top and talk about the Blackburns. I’ve talked about the Rookie Curse before and how no rookie drafted in the first three rounds has won a championship since 2011. Part of this has been a fluke; there have been plenty of top rookies who performed up to expectations. Sometimes the curse speaks truth as it is sometimes hard to predict whether a top prospect will adjust to the league right away or care enough about the league the amount it takes to lead their team. So far everything I’ve seen with the Blackburns indicates they not only can outperform where they went in the draft(Pretty impressive considering they were a 1 /3 combo) but more importantly bring an energy to the game that ignites the rest of the team. This could be the year the Rookie Curse is broken.
