2022 Marlboro Softball Playoff Preview: Looking at the Championship Indicators
How it works:
Over the past 12 years, there have been a series of random championship indicators that can help us determine who the champion will be. Most of these have nothing to do with actual performance, and I acknowledge do not hold any weight in a legitimate discussion of a team’s potential playoff performance.
However, history does not lie, and some of these indicators are legit and performance based. By breaking down the six championship indicators, I have narrowed it down to only one possible winner.
I’m going to start with a newly discovered indicator that has been 100% accurate since 2013.
Championship Indicator #1:
Since 2013, every championship captain that was an active member during its championship run, lost in the first round the previous season.
Seven of these nine instances are clear cut. Whichever captain won the championship was eliminated in the first round the previous season. Two cases require just a little explanation:
Evan Steinberg won his first year as captain in 2020, but was a member of Team Granese in 2019. Since Granese lost in the first round in 2019, Steinberg is part of this statistical curiousity. .
Brian Applebaum won the championship in 2019 after winning it all in 2018. However, since he was injured both playoff runs, he does not count as being “an active member during its championship run”.
This means Lombardi, Conti, Pingaro, Marrone, Wallman, and Larocca can be crossed off the list.
Championship Indicator #2:
Since 2010, no championship team entered the playoffs on a winning streak.
Over the last 12 seasons, 8 champions lost their final game of the regular season. Of the remaining 4 teams, all of them lost the penultimate game of the regular season. Therefore, if you define a “streak” as two or more games, no team has entered the playoffs on a winning streak. As far as entering the postseason on a losing streak, two teams have won the championship despite stumbling into the playoffs. Pollock won in 2011 despite losing its last three games, and Applebaum won it all in 2018 despite losing its final two regular season games.
Teams that can be eliminated from championship because they’re on a winning streak: Pollock, Drashinsky, Kessler, Conti, Marrone.
Based on the first two indicators, there are nine teams that remain in the hunt:
Lapine, Bomenblitt, Applebaum, Goldfarb, Steinberg, Rosenstock, Polzer, Ferrarese, Goddard.
Moving on to a more performance based indicator . . .
Championship Indicator #3:
Since 2010, 10 of the 12 championship teams ranked in the top half of the league in runs scored.
The only two champions that did not are 2018 Applebaum(The outlier in most championship indicators) and 2020 Team Steinberg, who barely missed the top half by finishing 10th in runs scored.
While having a top notch defense is generally accepted as the biggest key to a successful year, championship teams have averaged a higher runs scored ranking(6.08) than runs against ranking (7.08). Also, the team with the best runs against average has never won a championship while the team with the best runs scored average has won three times (2010 Lapine, 2011 Pollock, 2017 Pollock). This seems to be doubly bad news for Bomenblitt who not only finishes in the bottom half of runs scored, but also led the league in runs against.
The top 9 teams in runs scored are Marrone, Kessler, Drashinsky, Larocca, Rosenstock, Steinberg, Lapine, Wallman, Polzer.
This means after looking at the first three indicators, the teams that still have the best shot at winning the championship are:
Lapine, Steinberg, Rosenstock, Polzer
We’re really starting to thin out the competition.
Championship Indicator #4:
Since 2011,only one rookie drafted in the first three rounds has won a championship.
This trivia was more impressive last year when it was “No rookie since 2011”, but last year Mike Santaromita became the first such rookie since Dave Polzer in 2010 to win it all.
I have wondered whether this is just a coincidence or whether there is something more to it. Generally speaking, my brother and I avoid drafting rookies high in the draft because it’s putting a lot of faith in a mostly unknown quantity. There are great players in the league who need a year or two to get comfortable. Plus, is the new player going to be as committed to the league as the rest of us? If you take a rookie in the first few rounds based on one impressive batting practice in early April, but he turns out to not take the league seriously or hits mostly popups against in-game pitching, then you basically threw away a season.I know there are multiple captains who are reading this and slowly nodding their heads.
Due to replacements, the only teams this year who go into the playoffs with a rookie drafted in the first three rounds are Steinberg and Marrone.
This means only three teams remain in the championship hunt: Lapine, Rosenstock, Polzer.
Championship Indicator #5:
Out of the last 12 champions, only two had a member of the previous championship team on its roster.
It’s weird that in a league where rosters get reshuffled every year that we haven’t had more back to back winners, but it’s true. Only the Brock brothers in 2016 and Melynk, Pingaro, Applebaum in 2019 won championships for a second straight year.
I have to admit this is a completely coincidental stat that should not really factor into the legitimate chances of a team winning it all. For this exercise, however, I am not going to ignore history. The teams affected by this indicator are Larocca(obviously), Bomenblitt, Applebaum, Drashinsky, Kessler, Goddard, and Polzer.
That means the only two teams that remain after the first five championship indicators are:
Lapine and Rosenstock.
Which brings us to the final indicator….
Championship Indicator #6:
Since 2010, 9 out of the last 12 winners have had a record equal or better than 14-8(I’m including Steinberg’s 12-5 COVID season record).
I usually only start with the modern era, which begins with 2010, but if we include 2007-2009 then it’s 12 out of the last 15 teams.
We always talk about how random things can happen in the playoffs. Any team has a shot, upsets happen all the time(at least in the early rounds), but at the end of the day most of the championship teams are the ones who do really well in the regular season.
Taking a look at the three exceptions, two of them (2012 Harris and 2019 Applebaum) beat teams that were 18-4 and 17-5 in game three of finals in order to take home the championship. 2018 was the only year where there was not a 14-8 or better team that was in the finals.
Interestingly enough, there is bad news for Larocca despite their great regular season. Out of the 8 teams that have gone at least 17-5, only one has won the championship (2014 Team Applebaum).
After looking at all six Championship indicators, there is only one team remaining:
Team Lapine.
It would be a fitting end for a legend of Marlboro Softball.
