POwer Rankings Week 16

Quick playoffs thought before we move onto the power rankings: While we’re still a month away from the post season beginning, I want to go on the record and give my dark horse pick. Last year I talked about the similarities shared between each winning team since 2010. While I mostly agree these traits are coincidental, an argument can be made (especially for #3 on the list) that it’s an important feature for a championship team to possess. These traits are:

1.       At least two rookies on the roster.

2.       No player from the previous year’s championship club is on the team.

3.       The team ranks in the top 8 of Runs Scored.

Like I said, the first two may seem pretty coincidental but so far this has been the pattern. Only one team this year fits all three categories…. Team Younger.

This is a team that I predicted would get off to a slow start only to emerge late in the season. While the ship hasn’t necessarily hit smooth sailing yet, there are a few signs that point to potential playoff success. Despite sporting a measly 6-12 record (4^th worst in the league), they have the 6^th best run differential. They also play in The American League, which is completely up for grabs, and have beaten quality opponents including Mamone twice (including a  shutout) and Randell. Nobody in the AL has looked like a surefire pick, so I’m going to pick the team that has fit the recent championship criteria to make the finals.

Power Rankings:

1.       Applebaum (1): Another dominating performance last Sunday strongly suggests UH Left might be the first field selected in the playoffs. Applebaum has scored at least 20 runs in all three UH Left games this year. This league used to feature an Elite 3 or 4 teams at the top, but APplebaum has separated themselves from a very competitive group.

 

2.       Jacoby (2): On the bright side, their 5-4 loss was one of Jacoby’s best defensive outings of the season. For a team built on defense, that’s a good sign as we march towards the playoffs.

 

3.       Carlin (4): After back to back three run performances, Carlin has responded with 24 and 16 run offensive explosions. It’s safe to say that two game mini-slump was just a hiccup.

 

4.        Randell (3): After finally giving them the long overdue Power Rankings respect they deserved, Randell loses only their third game not decided by one run. I think their loss is more of a sign that Bykofsky is playing better than Randell having a poor game.

 

5.       Wallman (5): Seven wins in a row and 10 out of their last 12 only gets the fifth spot on the list? Again, this is more of a reflection on how strong the NL is than anything else.

 

6.        Goldfarb (8): This is where it gets murky. It’s pretty unusual for a time to jump two spots despite losing its last game, but so much of Goldfarb’s recent inconsistency can be excused by missing key players.

 

7.       Mamone (6): I still believe Mamone has Finals potential, but they need to get out of this slump. I’d call it a “mini” slump, but it becomes worse when you get shutout

 

8.       Pollock (7): The loss to Applebaum was ugly, but APplebaum has been crushing opoonants all season. The last stretch of games will be an important test to se if we can beat some of the elite teams.

Wednesday Night Preview

The bad news for me is I lost a prediction thus ending my streak. The good news is since the Younger/Beilis game ended first, my streak stops at 13 and not 12.

Goldfarb vs. Mamone:

Mamone has the better record and is listed higher in my rankings, but I’m going to go with Goldfarb in a mild upset tonight. The lesson learned from last Wednesday’s Carlin/Randell game is sometimes it takes more than one bad game for a good team to get it out of their system. That’s what I expect will happen tonight as Team Goldfarb makes a move for the top spot in the AL.

Predicted Winner: Goldfarb

Pollock vs. Harris:

I can’t predict my own games. It’s been a frustrating year for Team Harris, but Harris always manages to have his teams ready for the playoffs. As August approaches, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his team to start playing better. Meanwhile, my team is itching to get back on the field after a very tough Sunday loss.

From the Softball Blog Vault: Softball/Baseball Averages

Editor’s note: The following post was published May 15^th, 2010 on a previous blog I once had. I’m republishing it now because A) I think it’s an interesting read and B) it’s something worth revisiting. I’m going to be writing a post soon about how the amount of .500 and .600 seasons have gone up in recent years. I’ll want to compare how the softball/baseball averages comparison has changed during this period.

 

Softball/MLB Averages- The Mystery Is Solved

Whenever I explained how batting under .500 in slow pitch softball isn't completely embarrassing, I told people how batting .500 is like batting .300 in the major leagues. I never knew if this was really true or not, but it seemed right. I was bored at work one day, so I decided to actually figure out how softball averages equate to MLB averages. I decided to create a chart of batting average conversions using last year’s softball statistics and the last 10 years of major league baseball averages. Here’s how it works:



Step One:

There are 208 players in the Marlboro Mens’ Softball league. We only have statistics on the 180 returning players. Since the 28 non returning players are considered unknown variables(since we don’t know if they overall had high averages or low averages), we’ll just assume that their data falls in line with the 180 players returning this year. Out of these 180 players:

73 batted .450
61 batted .475
30 batted .500
16 batted .525
8 batted .550
4 batted .575
2 batted .600

I turned each of these numbers into a ratio. For instance, since 30 out of 180 players batted .500, that’s 1 in 6. 16 out of 180 players batting .525 means that one in 11.25 players batted .525

Step Two:

To find the MLB equivalent, I needed to first figure out how many hitters are in a lineup. Since there are 9 hitters in an AL lineup (14 teams) and 8 hitters in an NL lineup (16 teams), that gives us 254 MLB players (14x9) + (16x8). Now it was time to apply the softball ratios to MLB statistics. For example:

Since 1 in 6 softball players batted .500 last year, we divide 254(the total number of MLB hitters in a lineup) by 6. Since 254 divided by 6 is 42( using the regular rounding system), whatever average was 42nd best in baseball is the equivalent of batting .500.

Step Three:

In 2009, the 42nd best average was .300. How amazing is that! I always just randomly figured that batting .500 in softball was like bating .300 in the major leagues. The only problem is I didn’t want to only use one year of MLB statistics to figure out these equivalent averages. Therefore, I repeated this system for the last 10 years of MLB statistics. This did not take as long as it seems. So for the equivalent of batting .500 in softball, I wrote down what the 42nd best batting average was in baseball for each of the last 10 years. Then I took the average of this number. Over this 10 year period it turns out that batting .500 in softball is really like batting .297 in the majors.

Finally, here are all the equivalent averages I came up with:

Softball Average                       Major League Average

600                                          .341

.575                                         .331

.550                                         .320

.525                                         .310

.500                                         .297

.475                                         .288

.450                                         .285

Except for the difference between batting .450 and .475, there seems to be around a one point gain in the MLB equivalent average for every 2.5 points gained in your softball average. Sticking with that ratio would come in handy if you batted .535. Since it’s 10 points higher than .525, you could approximate that the MLB average would be around .314. This also means batting .700 is the equivalent to batting .381 in the majors. It's an inexact science, but I think it's pretty close.

The only problem is we only have one year’s worth of softball average to base these numbers. I’ll definitely see how the system works with two years worth of softball averages. I also happened to figure out that the softball equivalent to batting .300 in the major leagues is batting .506 in softball.

Let me know what you think. I'm pretty confident this is the best way to figure out these numbers.

Week 15 Power Rankings

There’s no way to check Elias on this, but last week could have been the first time in league history that only one game was decided by fewer than 8 runs. If “dominance” was the key word last weekend, I think it’s also a fitting word to describe the power rankings this year. In previous years my rankings listed all 16 teams. This year the number was reduced to 8 mostly because I wanted to focus on the positives and wanted to avoid writing negative comments about teams in the bottom half. Symbolically speaking though, going from 16 to 8 teams for the power rankings can also represent the idea of dichotomy. Where in previous years, all teams were connected by the rankings, this year we have the haves and have-nots. You’re either on the rankings, or you’re not.

As we enter the home stretch of the regular season, I’m curious to see how this will translate to the playoffs.  In the four years of having two separate 1-8 seedings for the playoffs, 2010 was the only year where one of the leagues had all four top seeds advance to the second round. One would look at the National League this year and think there’s a good chance that feat will be repeated this year (although being that my team sits in the #5 slot, I’m hoping there’s at least one upset waiting to happen). The top four NL teams won their games last week by 11,9,16, and 16 runs respectively. Dominance indeed.

Power Rankings:

1.       Applebaum (1)

2.       Jacoby (2)

3.       Randell (5)

4.       Carlin (3)

5.       Wallman (4)

6.       Mamone (6)

7.       Pollock (7)

8.       Goldfarb (8)

Other Notes:

Once again there’s a huge logjam at the 7-11 spots. If any of these teams can get super hot over the last few weeks, it might result in a move to the #6 spot. That big of a jump is still unlikely because I anticipate Team Mamone will get back on track and recover from their awful game.  

Wednesday Night Preview

12-0!!

12-0!!

12-0!!

I was trying to think of a subtle way to say I’m 12-0 picking Wednesday night games, but this way is more fun. One more time….

12-0!!!

I also know I’m jinxing myself because tonight is a really tough pair of games to predict. In preparation for the disappointment I’m likely going to experience, let me do this one last time….

12-0!!!!!!

Onto tonight’s matchups:

Beilis vs. Younger:

Even before the season I’ve felt Younger was going to have an average regular season but could be more dangerous in the playoffs.  I still believe they’re a team more potent than their record shows even with a new look roster. Despite having a 4-11 record, their run differential is a respectable -0.7. That’s the same as my team which has an 8-7 record. On the other side of the fence, Team Beilis has a 6-0 record against teams under .500. They’re chances tonight depend on whether or not Vaccaro plays, who I’m pretty sure can not play the Wednesday night games. If he plays, Beilis has a pretty good shot. If not, I feel Younger will begin playing up to their run differential.

Predicted Winner: Younger

Randell vs. Carlin:

   I’ve already commented on these teams in more detail in my power rankings. What’s amazing about these two superb teams is that the loser is going to be sitting in just the 4^th spot in the NL Standings. While this is a position Randell has held throughout the season, Carlin has only known the top 3 for almost the entire season.  I have to think Team Carlin is going to roar back after their 18-3 defeat Sunday. Meanwhile Team Randell has been led by a consistently great defense all season. There’s no reason to think they’ll have an off night other than the fact they’re playing a team who before last week’s debacle averaged 16.6 runs in their last five games.  Team Randell has shown they are just as good as the other top teams in the NL, but I don’t see Carlin falling back to the sole possession of the #4 spot in the division.

Predicted Winner: Carlin

Week 14 Power Rankings

Week 14 Power Rankings:

1.       Applebaum (1):  Over the past 13 games, their runs against average is 6.8. TO put that in context, the season leader in runs against has an average of 7.8.  Bottom line is while the leaderboard is full of Applebaum players, their defense has also been one of the best in the league.

 

2.       Jacoby (3): Jacoby is the reverse of Applebaum. When we think of Team Jacoby the first thing we normally think of is great defense, but it’s their offense that’s helping them achieve a great season. Team Jacoby has 9 games this season in which they’ve scored 10+runs. Only Team Applebaum has a higher amount.

 

3.       Carlin (2): Their 18-3 loss last week was the most shocking defeat of the season not because of who beat them(the formidable Team Wallman) but by its decisiveness. Although Team Carlin is just as good as the top two teams on the list, the truth is Carlin has struggled a bit lately defensively. After going through as good of a seven game stretch defensively as any team this season, they’ve now given up double digit runs in four consecutive games.   

 

4.       Wallman (6):  Two weeks ago they were #8, but their recent demolishing of Team Carlin and their current streak of 8 wins in their last 9 games has earned them a spot close to the Elite 3.

5.       Randell (5): Team Randell has not given up double digit runs since the third game of the season. No other team can boast that. It’s a testament to how great the National League is that this team could possibly only end up as a #4 seed. If they beat Carlin tonight and follow it up with a win on Sunday, they’ll certainly move up.

 

 

6.       Mamone (4): When the top is this good, one bad week (even with missing your #1), can set you back a few spots. If there is any reason for concern it’s that Team Mamone has allowed double digit runs in 5 out of their last 6 games. Personally, I don’t think it’s too alarming when they have such an offensive juggernaut.

7.       Pollock (8): The middle group of teams are all so close that the tie breaker is going to have to go to a team that won its last game and has been on a pretty good roll, winners of 6 of our last 7 games.

 

8.       Goldfarb (7): It’s noted that Goldfarb was missing Marty when losing last week. I still have to have them drop a spot when losing to a 2-12 team.  

Week 13 Power Rankings

Quick rankings for this week:

1. Applebaum (1)
2. Carlin (3)
3. Jacoby (1)
4. Mamone (4)
5. Randell (5)
6. Wallman (8)
7. Goldfrb (NR)
8. Pollock (6)

Wednesday Night Predictions:

Tonight's winners: Jacoby, Goldfarb

Week 12 Power Rankings

Ironically, I had less time to work on the blog this week once my summer vacation started. Not much change this week. As it’s true every season, certain sub divisions start becoming clear around the mid-year point. This week I’ll list the teams by categories as well as a previous championship team from the past few years that fit each category.

The Powerhouses- These are the teams who seemed poised to have a lock on the top three spots for perhaps the rest of the season. They at least have the benefit of the doubt for the next few weeks.

Previous Championship Teams: Team Jacoby (2012) and Team Pollock (2011)- Both teams were in the upper echelon wire to wire before winning the championship.

1.       Jacoby (1)

2.       Applebaum (2)

3.       Carlin (3)

Glimpses of Greatness- These teams at one point during the season have shown they can belong in the top group. Randell started the season as strong as any team in the league while Mamone is currently showing what they could be capable of.

Previous Championship Team: Team Lapine (2010): A now legendary ( for Marlboro Softball  at least) group of rookies and breakout players that included rookies Dave Polzer, Pat Brock, as well as breakout seasons from Justin Brock and Adam Rothschild. Also had league MVP Glen Roland.  This is a great example of a team that showed throughout the season they could be great but didn’t fully realize its dominance until late in the season and the playoffs.

4.       Mamone (5)

5.       Randell (4)

Get Hot At The Right Time- These are the teams how may show more inconsistency than the above groups, but for stretches of time can be just as tough to beat. My weekly power rankings are restricted to the top 8 teams, but this group extends beyond that amount. Beyond the teams listed below this group would also include Goldfarb, Beilis and Feldman. I also think Younger has the potential to join this group.

Previous Championship Team: Team Harris (2012): Team Harris wasn’t bad during the regular season; they were just one of several teams lurking behind the powerhouses. They finished 12-10 and didn’t rank high in either offense or defense. They were a good team who gelled at the right time.

6.       Pollock (6)

7.       Lapine (7)

8.       Wallman (NR)