Sunday, April 12, 2020

2020 Pre-Season Power Rankings

These could be the only power rankings for awhile as we are unfortunately looking at a lengthy delay to the start of the season. As usual, I am only ranking the top half of the league. After the rankings, I wrote a little bit about the other 9 teams in the league. 

This year I'm organizing it in countdown style to build up the suspense. Happy holidays and I look forward to when we can start playing and seeing how this list changes throughout the year.


9 Fradkin- If any team stands to benefit from the new Walks rule*, it's Fradkin. One storyline I’ll be curious to follow this season is how pitchers choose to navigate the Yee-Fradkin-Binder part of the lineup. For that matter, I’m wondering how Fradkin will choose to stack the top of this lineup. Yes, this lineup looks scary good(Even their 7th round pick, Jeremy Levine, almost batted .600 last year), but I think their defense has a few holes. It’s not bad enough to drop this team below .500, but I think it’s average enough to prevent them from being an elite team.


*  The new walk rule is that each team designates one player on their team. If this player walks more than two times then each additional walk will result in the designated player going to second base instead of first base.

8. Larocca- I have to admit, I was surprised when I looked to see what their record was last year and saw they only went 10-12. This is a team that clicked during the second half of the year and was right on the verge of making the finals. The analysis is easy when 9 of the top 10 players from last year are back this year. This is a group of guys who care about winning(not everyone does) and will be motivated to get back to where they were last year. Rumor has it that Ronnie has been working on perfecting his knuckleball so watch out.


7. Harris- In the captains’ poll, Team Harris was ranked 5th, so I don’t have them quite as high as some others. While the top of the lineup is certainly a formidable group, I feel their lineup could use an extra bat or two to extend the lineup a bit. One key could be Justin Krauss, who had the best offensive year of any of the Krauses in 2019. Maybe it won’t matter when you have Polzer at the top(the only player to hit over .500 every year last decade) followed by one of the most lethal combinations in Callow and Doc. WIth that outfield defense and Polzer on the mound, I don’t see how they win fewer than 12 wins. 

Random Trivia: This marks the 6th time Harris has drafted Callow with his first round pick. The only other time a captain has picked the same player in the first round more than three times since 2010 is Jacoby selecting Mamone(four times).


6. Steinberg- Spoiler alert for the rest of the power rankings, but Evan’s team is the top ranked club of anyone who has been a captain for fewer than seven years. That includes nine captains. Here’s another team I’ll be brief about since I wrote this team’s post-draft summary. This team’s success will depend on its pitching, which to me is their biggest question mark. A lot will depend on what rookie captain Steinberg does if rookie Goddard struggles on the mound. I think Jeff will be fine, but you just never know with rookie pitchers.  And now since this is the only appropriate place to put it, here is some rookie captain trivia. 

Since 2010, there have been 15 rookie captains. Only 5 of the 15 had winning seasons. Meanwhile,
6 out of 15 had what I deem as awful seasons, winning 8 or fewer games. If there is any theory that rookie captains will struggle their first season before becoming better captains, the numbers don’t really bear that out. There were 13 captains who we can compare first and second year win totals (Peragine only was a captain one year and we don’t know yet how Lombardi will do his second year). The average win total of these 13 captains their rookie seasons is 10.5. The average win total in their second year is 10.7.

5. Marrone- I usually am not a fan of handing the reins of a team over to rookies, but the Blackburns look like a 1-2 combo and not the 1-3 they were selected this year. Both have HR power and Martin was making phenomenal catches and showing off an amazing arm from left field in the mini Corona Tournament a few weeks ago. Seriously, do NOT run on him. Marrone is still a top pitcher, Jared  is still a top offensive threat and a steal as a 4. Speaking of bargains, Randell in the 9th round is coming off a season where he hit .564. I think there are a few defensive holes and a chance it takes a little while for the Blackburns to be consistently great, but even taking these issues into consideration, they’re one of the best teams in the league.

4. Bykofsky- To be honest, I was basically going to put Bykofsky in the top five before the draft even started. Every year he drafts a great team. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a year his team had a record worse than 14-8. This year the main attraction is their outfield. With Byko, Brock, Conselyea, Rubin, Anslow they have perhaps TOO good of an outfield. One of these above average defenders won’t even be playing the OF each inning. (Tip: I probably wouldn’t give Brock innings off). Their infield is solid as well. The Pargaments, Polguy, Turner will all be at least average and above average for the positions they play. Offensively, they will be fine even if they don’t score the most runs in the league. Brock, Andy Pargament, Jeff Turner all historically hit better than the league average for the round they were selected. I also expect Joe Pargament to improve on his .440 rookie season. I’m not sure who pitches when Alan Rubin misses games, but if I’m going that far to find a weakness, then that tells you something.

3. Lapine- Eluit Infante himself guarantees this team will be .500 by himself. I can see the Bomenblitts going first overall because they’re a combo pick that gives a team two first rounders, but I don’t get why so many people pass over a player who recently won back to back MVPs. As great as Eluit is, one player does not make a team and Lapine followed the slam dunk first round pick with mostly veterans who round for round can hit. That’s one thing I really like about this team more than most others- the depth of their lineup. If Roland can rebound offensively, Lucas Preiss continues his ascent, and Tim George hits the way he showed at tryouts, then this is an even scarier team. The downside? I think there is some vulnerability on the outfield defense.

2. Pollock- The winner of the captains’ poll has already met a little backlash since being crowned frontrunners. Since I have the floor, I’ll address two common criticisms. 
    1. Not enough power. Power in the league is overrated. The more runs that are scored in a league, the less of a premium is placed on a home run being hit. Here’s proof: The two teams that led in home runs finished 13-9(good) and 9-13(not so good). Our team went 18-4 last year but finished 13th in the league in home runs. Team Bykofsky hit THREE home runs the entire  year, finishing last in that category. Team Record? 14-8. 
    2. C+ Outfield Defense: Josh and I played RCF and LCF respectively for teams that went 18-4 and 17-5 over the last two seasons. Now I move back to LF where I’m better suited. Who takes over LCF? Only Joe Peragine, winner of 3 of the last 5 Defensive outfielders of the year! 
 
With two first round picks in Peragine and Martino, and Mike Paladino who is only two         
seasons removed from being considered a first rounder, the core of this team is as good as any in the league. Matt will throw strikes and let his defense do its job.

1. Wallman- This is the most complete team in the league. You want offense? Becker, Lugos, Schindelheim offer tremendous offensive value for where they were selected. Clamp and Meyer have been top of the lineup staples for championship caliber teams over the past few years, and Wallman and Younger still are capable of hitting close to .500. Lugos is one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and I can not say enough about Clamp’s pitching and defense. He’s a game changer. Make no question that Wallman as a shortstop in the 5th round is a huge bargain. Todd is a smart captain and if he didn’t think he was good enough to play SS anymore, he would’ve used one of his first four picks to shore up that key position. The one potential problem is the potential for this team to let personality clashes drive them apart. It’s no secret Lugos can be outspoken and it may not rub everyone the right way. It will be interesting to see if there are any lingering effects of certain current teammates making a big issue of Clamp’s “missed games” last year. Let the record show that as he was chosen in the third round with minimal scheduling conflicts this year, the dissenters were clearly WRONG in their attacks last year. Anyway, while there are strong personalities here, the one common element is they all care about winning.


Quick Notes:

Like I mentioned, it’s my personal policy to rank the top half of the team as to not focus on the cellar dwellers and give them bulletin board material when we play them. Here are some quick notes on the remaining teams in alphabetical order:

Applebaum- Never count out an Applebaum team even if they have a bad regular season. In his 10 years as a captain, Applebaum has been knocked out of the first round 7 times with a playoff  record of 2-13. Those other three seasons? All championship seasons. This year’s team features the Turanos properly selected(No more of that 4-5 bullshit from last year!) and Derek Melnyk who is looking to become the first player to win three championships in a row since….ever? My playoff spreadsheets don’t stretch out far enough to see if anyone’s done it. This is a team that I can easily see moving up the rankings as the year progresses.

Dimarco- The quick consensus on this team has been “All offense, no defense”. I agree with this sentiment. Since 2010 there have been six teams to finish in the top 3 in runs scored but the bottom 3 in runs against(3 of those teams were coached by Randell). Only one of these teams finished with a record above .500(Feldman’s 2017 team went 12-10). I think this year’s DImarco team can join this list.

Drashinsky- I think it was an average draft for Seth’s first year as captain, but I’m most impressed with how he was about to wait until the fourth round to nab his good friend, Jordan Rosenthal. I thought for sure Seth would take him in the third because it would be too big of a risk to wait until the fourth(even though he’d only have to hold his breath for four more picks). I’m rooting for Seth because he’s one of the nicest guys in the league. At 25 years of age, he must also be one of the youngest captains ever. I don’t know how this is relevant to team success, but I’m just pointing that out. 

Ferrarese- Chase Sandler is a future MVP candidate, Kyle Dunleavy is a potential batting champ, and Scott Seidenberg is a great talk show host who moonlights(or daylights?) as one of the best power hitters that can be drafted after the first two rounds. I think past this top three, runs might be hard to come by. I think the defense is solid and Mike will continue to improve on the mound, but a lot is going to fall on the shoulders of the big three hitters. It will go a long way If Noel can return to batting above .500. 

Goldfarb- By all accounts Jeff Paglio will be one of the best hitters in the league and getting the man voted the best pitcher in the league in the 7th round is a steal. Pat Specchio proved he just needed to get accustomed to the league before becoming a top hitter as his batting average continues to rise(.441-.531-.570 over the last three years), but can he hold down shortstop? Same with Alex Goldfarb making the move from OF to second base. As noted in my pre-season write up, Pat is the only returning player who hit over .400 last season. They’re going to need some other players to step up offensively.

Jacoby- Even though Jacoby is not in my top 9, I think his team is one of the top sleepers in the league. He drafted his three rookies(Juska, Navatta, Ortizo) one round later than I thought they’d go, and Granese is a steal in the third round even with the missed games. Do the missed games become a moot point with the delay of the season? Regardless, he’ll be around for the playoffs. After a four year span that saw three 16-win seasons, Jacoby had the worst three year regular season stretch of any captain last decade. This team should be the start of reversing the trend.

Lombardi- By drafting JZ, Brock Hor, and Eric Lurie, Lombardi came the closest he could to recreating our 2011 championship team. In fact, when our teams square up 8 out of the 9 remaining players from that team will be featured in the game. This is a likeable group of guys, but there were questions abound in the draft. Why not trade the first round pick when Conti could have been taken later in the round? Evan Rosenthal was high on our radar too, but his third round value is tied to him being a shortstop. It’s no secret that team chemistry was an issue last season- and that’s what happens when the losses pile up.. I wonder what will happen this year if the wins don’t come quickly. 

Pingaro- I’ll be honest, I have no idea how Roeigers and Valentino are defensively but I feel this team needs them to be studs there as much as they need to produce offensively. I went to do some research on how teams with two rookies in the first three picks did that season and found mixed results. Out of the five teams, one had a great regular season(2012 Lapine went 14-8), two were average, and two were awful(Both Beilis teams 2016-2017 going a combined 13-31). Even worse were these five teams’ combined playoff records: A combined 2-10. As I look up and down the lineup I see a lot of guys I LOVE as teammates and good ballplayers, but not necessarily steals for what rounds they were taken. It puts a lot of pressure on Roeigers and Valentino to outproduce their round’s value, or Paster is going to have to bat .800(which wouldn’t completely shock me),

Schefkind- Another team I covered in my post draft analysis. Age and injury concerns might be an issue especially if the league moves to double headers to make up for all the missed games. I don’t think there’s a glaring strength on this team, but on the other hand there is no glaring weakness. The team has consistent hitters throughout and while I don’t think anyone is going to win a gold glove on the team this year, there are no obvious holes defensively either. As long as Leo can keep throwing strikes in the summer heat, the team will hover around .500. 

No comments:

Post a Comment