2013 Playoff Preview Part One: Predicting a Champion

Before we get to part one of the playoff preview, let me first warn you that this year’s write-up will feature very few statistics. For most of the season, my computer could not be hooked up to the internet, so I could not record my typical data. It seems convenient that this shortage of information comes the same year my team tanked in the regular season, but there you have it. 

Part 1 will feature my championship prediction.

Part 2 will feature a small Round One Preview

Predicting a Champion:

Just for the fun of this argument, let’s assume certain past trends are indicators and not merely statistical randomness. When looking back at the past three champions, a few patterns stand out.

1.       All three winning teams had at least two rookies.

2.       All three winning teams featured zero players from the previous year’s championship club.

3.       All three winning teams were in the top half of runs scored.

4.       All three winning teams were in the bottom half for runs against.

All four of these facts are fascinating for going against some commonly accepted beliefs.

1.       Taking rookies in the draft is a big risk because it always takes a year to get used to the league.

2.       It’s important to take proven winners, so you can’t go wrong picking guys from last year’s championship team.

3.       Having a good offense is nice and all, but defense wins championships.

How can these trends be explained?

1.       Taking rookies is a big risk, but one that can pay huge dividends if you pick the right ones.  Drafting an unknown player in the 5^th or 6^th round who ends up playing like most teams’ 2^nd or 3^rd round picks can obviously give a team a boost.

2.       There is no way I can argue that drafting a player from last year’s championship team means you won’t win this year. This one is purely coincidental, but it’s fun to see how long the trend continues. Until it’s broken, I’ll use it as an indicator to predict a champion.

3.       #3 and 4 is intriguing for how counter intuitive they are. But here’s my theory:

Most teams with good defenses have to sacrifice a little bit of offense. As a result their teams will usually feature two dangerous hitters at most  and second half of the lineup that is more than serviceable in the field, but not much at the plate. 

This formula is great during the regular season, but there is a change in pitching strategy come playoff time. Lineup deficiencies are exposed more as great hitters are pitched around. All of a sudden a team that is anchored by two great offensive players now has to depend on all the guys around them to come through. The playoffs benefit deep lineups more than it benefits teams that thrive defensively. 

So where do these four trends leave us as far as predicting 2013’s champion?  Let’s look at which teams fall under each category:

1.       Teams that have at least two rookies:

Jacoby, Harris, Beilis, Lapine, Mamone

2.       Teams that have zero players from last year’s championship:

 Wallman, Goldfarb, Jacoby, Randell, Applebaum, Carlin, Granese, Beilis, Pollock, Mamone

3.       Teams in top half of runs scored:

Randell, Applebaum, Feldman, Wallman, Younger, Carlin, Jacoby, Lapine

4.       Teams in bottom half for runs against:

Marrone, Pollock, Randell, Feldman, Bykofsky, Younger, Lapine, Goldfarb

Analysis:

No team fits all three criteria, so sadly, at least one of these trends will not continue after this year. As I mentioned before, the one that seems most non-related to being a factor for winning the ultimate prize is #2, having a player on your team from last year’s roster. Therefore, if one of these trends was going to come to end this year, #2 would be my choice.

One team fits the all three other indicators and is thus, my official pick to win the 2013 Marlboro Mens Softball Championship:

Team Lapine

That’s right. I’m going out on a limb and picking a .500 team to win it all. Besides fitting most of the criteria mentioned in this article, Team Lapine is a team finally hitting their stride. Since July 10, they have a 6-2 record. They have a few rookies who are clearly among the bargains of the draft (Spoto and Goddard), feature a pitcher who’s been in the semi-finals the past three years (Herm Suarez), and only fails to fit all four indicators because Callow won the championship last year. 

2013 is The Year of Parity. 8 out of 16 teams this year finished .500 or one game away from .500. Compare that to only 4 teams in 2012, 5 teams in 2011, and 5 teams in 2010,  If this is indeed The Year of Parity, then it will only be fitting that the champions have  an 11-11 record in the regular season.