This year may be unpredictable and chaotic in respects to all the rainouts and makeup games, but it has been remarkably predictable in respect to which teams are sitting at the top of the standings. There has been only one year this decade(2015) when the top three records were all predicted to be better than .500 before the season started. If the top three teams remain Fradkin, Goldfarb, Marrone(or Bykofsky), then it will happen again this year. In the pre-season predictions, three teams were predicted to have 15+wins: Brock, Goldfarb, and Marrone. Those teams are a combined 12-4 to start the season. In the pre-season Captains' poll, Goldfarb, Marrone, Bykofsky took first-third place and are a combined 12-3 to start the year.

In fact, the Captains' poll has accurately essentially every team that has a winning record at this stage of the season. All seven teams listed in the poll are among the eight teams that currently have a winning record.

This week's power rankings with last week's ranking in ().

1. Fradkin (1)- If there was one elite team that was slightly underrated before the year started, it's this one. They were predicted to go 13-9 in the predictions and finished 6th in the pre-season poll. I personally thought they were the best team on paper and their 5-0 start has done nothing to dissuade me.

2. Marrone (3)- Last week I pointed out their 44-11 run differential in the last two games. Their 10-run victory Sunday only adds to their dominating stretch. Fradkin vs. Marrone at Middle School this week is the early contender for game of the year and hopefully will be broadcasted somehow on Facebook live. It will also determine the number one team in next week's power rankings.

3. Goldfarb (2)- The move down from #2 is more of a reaction to Marrone's dominance than to Goldfarb's loss. In fact, it was impressive how long Goldfarb stuck around while missing five of their top seven picks Sunday night.

4. Bykofsky (6)- Their only loss this year was to a tough Marrone team while missing Polguy. I'm a little surprised their offensive performance is outpacing their defensive performance. I think their defensive stats will improve as the season rolls along.

5. Brock (5)- Brock has earned that 4-2 record while missing key players each game. This will continue as Captain Brock is missing this week's game. An impressive start to an always impressive Brock team.

6. Wallman (NR)- After a slow start to the season, Wallman's club rebounded with a DH sweep that puts them on the north side of .500. Led by strong pitching and strong bats in the outfield and first base, Wallman should be able to compete all year.

7(tied). Pollock (4) and Jacoby (7)- Two teams in similar situations who happen to be playing each other this week. For as great as Goldfarb's team is, both Pollock and Jacoby are in striking distance of first place. Whoever wins this game will continue to be a surprising challenger to what the league assumed would be Goldbarb's division title.

9. Granese (NR)- Granese gave Fradkin their biggest challenge of the young season which highlighted their superb defense. To move up the rankings, their offense has to score more runs though. Granese's games average only 12.3, by far the lowest in the league.

10. Lapine (NR)- This is my pick for Most Underrated Team(other than my own, of course). These rookies can play, and their 9-1 victory Sunday should open some eyes. They're also the one team who have defeated a difficult Marrone squad.

Power Rankings #1

Time for the first in-season power rankings of 2018. These will be updated before Wednesday night games. Only the top 8 teams will be listed. 

Honorable Mention: Mother Nature  

The rain has been the most dominating force this season so far. We’re not talking about little victories either. It’s not like we’ve woken up Sunday morning thinking, “Well, maybe there’s a shot at playing.” These have been mercy rule victories. Three Sundays in a row with a Wednesday night cancellation thrown in the mix is quite a run.

Power Rankings:

1.   Fradkin- In my eyes, this team has the most potent lineup coupled with one of the best pitchers in the league. Coming into the season, I didn’t think their defense would be top notch(Mr. Harris also agreed by grading them a B- in the pre-season write up), but so far they’ve only given up an astounding 8 runs in three games. All of this and they’re not even running on all cylinders yet. When was the last time you didn’t see Fradkin on the leaderboard? This team has the potential to challenge the 19-3 record set by 2014’s Team Applebaum.

2. Goldfarb- With so many young and athletic players, the only question was whether some of the top draft picks were going to make the leap and realize their potential. Marc Broome currently has 9 hits in a row, Darren Saler is near the top of the leaderboard in most categories, and Alex Goldfarb continues to stake his claim as one of the top outfielders in the league. It’ll be interesting to see how long Goldfarb and Fradkin can stay undefeated.

3. Marrone- After a shaky first game, Marrone’s squad has looked absolutely dominant outscoring opponents 44-11 in the last two games.  Before the season I predicted Marrone to go 15-7 and so far it’s a prediction I still feel comfortable with.

4. Pollock- Some may be surprised by the 3-1 start for the defending champs, but it is not all too shocking considering over half the roster consists of players from last year’s team. The formula right now is the same as it was in the 2011-2012 years that produced a championship and a semi-finals appearance: score a lot of runs and just be in the middle of the pack in runs against.

5.  Brock- Sure, it’s a head start to start out with two clear first round players including a top pitcher. Justin, however, is always forced to get a little creative in making up for their penalty. Picking the Preiss combo is paying off as is the Drashinsky clan. There are less than a handful of players where you can say “as long as you have _______ on your team, you should be good for at least a .500 season. The Brocks are part of that group.

6.  Bykofsky- Very similar to the Brocks, there is almost a certainty now that Bykofsky will put together a strong team each year. With Polguy healthy again, this team should end up in the 13-14 win territory.

7.  Jacoby- Jacoby’s team might serve as the template for how to have a successful team in an expansion year of Marlboro Softball. Draft some proven veterans early(Mamone, Gluck, Hor, Perloff) and take a chance with a rookie in the middle rounds hoping he’ll play a few rounds above his spot. Ballo looks like a steal as a 6th round pick.

8. Randell- Another team some may be surprised to see off to a good start. Sure it’s only three games but keep in mind their one (blowout)loss was sans Clampffer and they beat a tough Team Brock for their last victory. Their success partly depends on a pair of unknown rookies, but they are proving their value early in the season.

Captain of the Decade Update

Captain of the Decade Update:

With only two seasons remaining, it is time to visit an important question asked a few years ago. Who is the Captain of the Decade? There is no formula to easily determine who wins the title but any reasonable discussion has to consider both regular season and post-season performance.

A Positive Regular Season Record:

Eliminated from this discussion are Brock because he’s only been captain for one year and Feldman, Carlin, Younger since they are not currently captains and thus won’t have the other requirements that will soon to be discussed. Other short term managers that had a positive record but are eliminated from discussion are: Peragine, Spegel, Mesmer.

Current captains with a .500 winning percentage(Records as of 5/23/18)

1. Goldfarb (.589)
2. Bykofsky (.579)
3. Jacoby (.559)
4. Pollock (.538)
5. Wallman (.530)
6. Marrone (.513)

There would be no debate on COTD if it were solely based on regular season record. Goldfarb would clearly be the winner. However, post-season does matter. To what degree does it matter is up to each individual. A good litmus test is which MLB team do you consider the team of the 90s? Is it the Braves or the Yankees? The Braves had a better overall record while the Yankees won 3 World Series compared to the Braves’ one championship. Let’s first break down the playoff success of the 6 teams listed above and then take a look at some other teams who start entering the conversation for COTD based on playoff performances.

Post-Season Performance

Team	Championships	Finals Appearances	Semi-Finals	First round exits/Seasons as captain
Goldfarb	1	1	3	3/8
Bykofsky	0	1	1	0/5
Jacoby	1	1	1	4/6
Pollock	2	2	3	3/7
Wallman	0	0	2	4/8
Marrone	0	1	2	3/5

How These Results Affect COTD Discussion:

• Goldfarb: Goldfarb’s post-season success does enough to maintain his claim as COTD, but doesn’t do anything to further his case. He has his one championship and has made it past the first round more than 50% of the time. The only negative is his one finals appearance but he’s in the same boat in that category as most other captains. His three semi-finals appearances also puts him in good company.

• Bykofsky: He doesn’t have as many seasons under his belt as other captains in consideration, but it’s still impressive that Bykofsky’s teams have never exited the first round. As consistent as Bykosky’s run has been, it still hurts his chances that he has yet to win a championship. This is when being a captain for fewer years than the others on this list is a big hindrance.

• Jacoby: Despite winning a championship, Jacoby’s chances go down when factoring overall playoff success. Jacoby has exited the playoffs over half his seasons despite having strong teams. Still, every captain goes through bad playoff streaks, so this drawback can diminish with two good post seaons. For now, the overall lack of playoff success is seen as the main argument against Jacoby’s case for CATD.

• Pollock: If any team benefits from factoring playoff success, it’s my brother’s. He’s the only captain to win multiple championships and one of only three current captains to have three or more semi- finals appearances(Goldfarb and Harris are the others). One question I ask for each captain is “What will winning the championship do to that captain’s chances of being CATD?” If Matt wins and has three championships while no one else has more than one, then it would make him the frontrunner.

• Wallman: Wallman’s case for MOTD consideration is hurt by lack of playoff success. He is the only captain with a .500+ winning percentage without a finals appearance this decade. If playoff success matters at all, Wallman has to be out of the running for now. If all that matters is the regular season then there are other captains with higher winning percentages.

• Marrone: Marrone is an interesting case because in five short years, he’s made two trips to the semi-finals including one to championship game. However, all three other seasons ended in first round exits. Still with no championships and other captains with better records, Marrone is out of contention for now.

Special Notes:

Beilis had an impressive post-season decade with three finals appearances. However with a sub .500 record and zero championships, he won’t be in the running.

Harris is the one current captain not represented above who can jump into the discussion with two strong seasons due to his two finals appearances including one championship.

Final Verdict:

Here is how I’d rank the four captains who have the best shot at COTD:

1.    Goldfarb: Goldfarb has been the most consistent captain with only one season this decade where he finished below .500. He also has a championship and three semi-finals appearances. Many believe he has the strongest team this year(and after starting 4-0 it’s hard to disagree), so a championship season could clinch the title for Goldfarb.

2.    Pollock: As said before, the playoff success makes Pollock the only current challenger to Goldfarb. Pollock’s 4th in winning percentage, so while it’s not as high as Goldfarb’s, it’s also not a major blemish either.  

3.   Jacoby: If Jacoby has a better regular season record than Pollock then why isn’t Jacoby also a current challenger to Goldfarb? It’s because if you rank Jacoby over Pollock it means you value regular season performance a lot more heavily than playoff performance. If that’s the case then you’re choosing Goldfarb as COTD anyway. Still, Jacoby has two seasons to make it far in the playoffs and build a solid case for the title.

(Note: Feldman and Younger may not be active captains but are in a similar situation as Jacoby. Even if one of them came back as a captain next year and won it all, their regular season records wouldn’t compete with Goldfarb’s while having similar post-season success. Jacoby has a chance at winning multiple championships this decade, so he still has a shot at COTD.)

4. Bykofsky: He got a late start, but if Bykofsky wins a championship within two years and overtakes Goldfarb for best winning percentage, he will also have a strong case. No captain has won more games in a three year span this decade than Bykofsky 2015-2017.

First Annual Captains' Preseason Poll

Welcome to the first annual captain’s preseason poll. Rather than give my own thoughts on each team, the preseason power rankings will be based on a captain survey. 

Here’s how it works:

Each captain was asked to rank the top three teams. 3 points is given to the top choice, 2 for the second choice, and 1 for the third. If two teams tied, the first tie breaker was given to the team that appeared on the most lists. The second tie breaker went to the team that earned the most points from captains other than themselves. For instance, if one team earned 4 points but 3 of the points was earned by their own captain voting himself for first place, his team would lose in a tie breaker to another team that earned 4 points by appearing on two lists, neither of them being his own captain.

13 out of 18 captains participated in the poll.  To make this list, a team had to appear on two or more lists. 

The results:

Rank      Team (total points)         # of lists              

1              Goldfarb(21)                     9                             

2              Marrone(17)                      8                             

3              Bykofsky(10)                    6                             

4              Brock(9)                            4                             

5              Wallman(5)                       3

6              Fradkin(5)                         3

7              Pollock(3)                         2

Feel free to add your comments. What do you think of the results? Which teams not represented do you think have the best chance at surprising captains?

Where Have All The Runs Gone?

Are you having an off year offensively? Don’t worry, a lot of us are. Run production is the lowest it’s been since records have been kept. Here are a total of runs per game for each year since 2010:

2010: 20.09

2011: 18.73

2012: 18.51

2013: 20.45

2014: 20.76

2015: 20.00

2016: 21.69

2017: 18.25

So are runs per game at its lowest of the decade one year after the league set a record for runs scored in a year? Were we using juiced balls the last few years without even knowing it? I think the answer lies in the one noticeable difference in the league this year vs. last year…..the new Marlboro Swim Club. What was once a field known for high scoring games has become a defensive haven.  How much has it changed? In 2014, I had kept statistics for each field in the league. Here are the runs scored numbers for each field compare this year to the averages from 2014:

Union Hill Right:

2014: 20.54 runs per game

2017: 19.60

Union Hill Left:

2014: 20.03

2017: 17.55

Municipal:

2014: 18.88

2017: 19.08

Marl El:

2014: 20.74

2017: 15.46

East Francis:

2014: 18.35

2017: 16.86

Middle School:

2014: 23.13

2017: 24.36

Swim Club:

2014: 24.40

2017: 14.94

 We are averaging a whopping 9.46 fewer runs a game on the Swim Club field than we were in 2014. That’s by far the biggest difference out of each field. Only Marl El can even claim to be in the same ballpark at a -5.28 difference. This decrease in production at the Swim Club is enough to explain why our total runs in the league are so low. If we replaced the runs scored this year at Swim Club with the runs average scored at the Swim Club in 2014 then the league’s run average per game would bump to 19.48. It would still be the lowest since 2012, but at least it would not be a record in futility.

One answer could be that it’s just a fluke year. Maybe the league catches on fire and runs per game will approach the levels of recent years. Are there other factors to take into consideration? Are pitchers better now than they’ve been in previous years? Is the influx of talent in the league having a bigger effect on the quality of defense than it is on offense? Although these are possible influences, I think the renovations to the Marlboro Swim Club are the biggest factor. It’s the one change that is based on actuality and not theory as well as the one with data behind it. 

Power Rankings for week of 7/23 games

Last week's ranking is in parenthesis. 

1. Pollock(1)- Team Pollock’s 6.1 run differential is more than double than the next team on the list(Goldfarb at 2.7).

2. Goldfarb (5)- For as great as Team Pollock has been this year, if Goldfarb wins tonight there will be a virtual tie atop the National League.

3. Bykofsky (2)- It might not time to worry yet, but two of the last three games were blowout losses(16-5 to Lapine and 17-4 to Pollock). Surprisingly, both were on UH Left which should be a field that plays to Bykofsky’s strengths.

4. Marrone (3)- A one-run loss to Harris feels like a huge missed opportunity for Marrone to gain control of the top seed in the AL. I love the energy this teams plays with. Marrone will move up the rankings next week if they can defeat Pollock on Sunday.

5. Brock (3)- The regular season comes down to who is missing from week to week almost as much as it does about talent. How much can the team by knocked when they lose without Justin? A loss is still a loss, but in the long-term, the team presents as big of a challenge as Bykofsky and Marrone.

6. Wallman(7)- You can get away with having an average offense in the regular season when you have the stingiest pitching/defense in the league. I think it could be a potential problem in the playoffs though as historically speaking, teams with top hitting/average defense make it further than top defense/average hitting. More on that in a future blog entry though.

7. Harris(8)- Team Harris and Team Wallman are sides of the same coin. Again, credit to Harris for silencing the many naysayers  right after the draft. Good defense never goes out of style.

8. Lapine (NR)- Accoring to the team stats page on the website, Team Lapine has the highest OPS in the league. They averaged 5.67 runs the first 6 games of the season going 0-6 and are averaging a whopping 12.89 runs the last nine going 6-3. While it may seem odd putting a last place team this high on the power rankings, very few teams have played as well the last two months.

Around The League:

Team Beilis/Team Jacoby/Team Paladino: Interleague play has not been kind to these three teams. They have a combined 1-20 record against the AL.  

Team Applebaum: They get lost in the shuffle playing in an American League where almost every team is either .500 or one game away from it. They’ve been caught by the injury bug this year, but if they can beat Goldfarb on Sunday, they’ll start attracting more attention.

Team Feldman- They may have fallen off the power rankings this week, but this is a team that has more than a fighting chance of getting Feldman to the semi-finals for the first time since 2006.

Team Randell- The run differential is a league worst -4.5, but they’re getting hot just like Team Lapine.

Team Granese- Losses and wins come in pairs for this team, and as the pattern indicates, it’s hard to get a read on this team. It’s been hard getting everyone on the field at the same time, which has clearly been their greatest hindrance. Granese and Bykofsky are the only two teams that have played zero games with a full 13.

Team Sarcona- I like this club being that they’re one of only three that have defeated my team.  They were getting a lot more attention a few weeks ago when they were riding a five game winning streak. This will be an interesting few weeks because they’re in danger of falling all the way to the back of a very competitive American League. 

Power Rankings

1. Pollock- While I think it’s a coincidence that the rankings are starting up again when our team is doing well, here we are. While I have some reservations putting us #1 and putting a “target on our backs”, I don’t think I can avoid it at this point. We’re ranked #1 in Runs Scored and #1 in Runs Against, which would be an unprecedented achievement if it holds true at years end.  

2. Bykofsky- Just like last year’s near championship team,  the 2017 Bykofsky club is dominating because they have the offensive punch to go along with the stellar defense that’s synonymous with Team Bykofsky. It helps when the captain is batting .750 past the midway point.  With homerun threats from both sides of the plate (Becker and Kleschinsky), there might be a battle to pick UH Left with Marrone. 

3. Brock- I’ll take time to anoint Justin Brock the heavy frontrunner for Marlboro Softball Player of the Decade. He’s won three championships, while playing two separate key positions, and has made a quick transition into being a successful captain. Now if only he could get someone to write a game summary! Does their negative run differential indicate their 10-4 record isn’t as strong as it looks? Their 5 game winning streak has included 3 one-run wins, and a 2-run victory. Last night’s victory against Marrone is a sign that more decisive victories are on the way.

4. Marrone- How many homeruns would Doc hit if all their games were played on UH Left? Doc is on the shortlist of MVP candidates, but it takes a team effort to put up an 11-4 record. Lots of credit goes to the array of rookies playing well above where they were picked in the draft. 

5. Goldfarb- If Brock is the player of the decade, Goldfarb is the favorite right now for captain of the 10’s. Coming into this season, only Jacoby had a better winning percentage as captain(.600 vs. .584) but this season, puts Goldy ahead. Goldfarb has played a remarkable stretch of five consecutive one run wins where four unfortunately (for them) resulted in losses. Call them the Anti-Brock. Still while I don’t think it’s a fluke that Brock pulled out their close call wins, I don’t think those four consecutive losses capture who this team is. 

6. Feldman- Now we’re getting into the sleepers section of the rankings. Team Feldman owns a negative runs differential thanks to two games where Feldman could not pitch. Their -0.9 differential turns into a +3.0 if you take out those two games. Will not drafting a back-up pitcher cost Feldman down the road? When Feldman is pitching, this team is as strong as almost anyone else. 

7. Wallman- Before the season started most predicted Wallman would have the best runs against but rank towards the bottom of runs scored. The season has pretty much stuck to that script as Wallman is ranked 2^nd in Runs Against but 10^th in Runs scored. If they want to break into the top 5, they will need to produce more runs in a season where high potent offenses are actually down(Only 5 teams currently average 10+ runs a game compared to 12 teams last year). 

8. Harris- The biggest surprise to most prognosticators is that Team Harris is holding its own midway through the year. The Harris Blueprint this year was to draft a very solid defense with just enough offense to win games.  As with Team Wallman, it’s a formula that has produced mixed results. Still, credit has to be given for Harris seeing the immediate potential in Zach Krauss, the clear favorite for most improved player thus far. Krauss and Schefkind have done their part in making it harder to pitch around Callow, but Justin still predictably leads the league in walks.

Other Quick Thoughts Around The League in No Particular Order:

Team Lapine- High potent offense is starting to play to its potential.  Whoever is winning the American League is crossing its fingers, Lapine finds its way out of the 8^th seed.

Team Sarcona- Close to making the Top 8. The stellar return to form season for Noel Gluck is a big reason why this team finds itself in the middle of the pack.

Team Randell- A few weeks ago it was beginning to look like the season was going off the rails. The team has shown some signs of life lately, and it will be interesting to see if they continue to turn their season around.

Team Granese- Many people, including myself, picked Granese to have the best record in the league. Suffice to say, at 6-8, they come in as the season’s biggest disappointment so far. Missed games are a big reason why as they are the only team that hasn’t played with a full 13. 

Team Applebaum- Ed Fradkin is VERY good at hitting softballs.

Team Jacoby- I’m not used to seeing a Team Jacoby ranked in the bottom 5 in Runs Against. In fact, it’s never happened. 

Team Paladino- Sure this is coming from a member of the one team Paladino has beaten so far, but they are NOT as bad as their record shows. Any team that has hitters like Mike Paladino and Ari Mesmer along with rookie standout Darren Saler can stay in any game. Their last four losses have all been by a margin of 1 or 2 runs.

Team Beilis- It’s been a pretty rough season so far, but when the first three picks are rookies the hope is the team will click come playoff time.