Championship Indicators

This championship prediction is based solely on recent trends. I acknowledge that most of these trends are based partly on coincidences. For instance, it’s been awhile since a championship team has had a member from the previous year’s winning team as well. Does this mean any team with a member from 2014 Applebaum is less likely to win it all in 2015? Of course not. But just for fun, let’s look at recent championship trends to help determine the most likely champions of the 2015 season.

Here are the facts I find most interesting:

1.  Only one team since 2004(and possibly even further back than that) has won the championship while drafting a shortstop in the first round.

                   That’s amazing! Only 2013 Team Jacoby bucked the trend when they won with Darren Kay as their first round pick. Just look at other recent first round picks of championship teams:

2014 Applebaum(JZ)

2012 Harris (Callow)

2011 Pollock (JZ)

2010 Lapine (Roland)

2009 Randell (Greenspan)

2008 Mesmer (Mesmer)

You see my point. It’s pretty incredible. This year the teams who drafted a non-shortstop in the first round are:

Applebaum, Jacoby, Feldman, Goldfarb, Carlin, Pollock, Wallman, Bykofsky.

2.       Since 2002 there have only been two players to appear on back to back championship teams. It hasn’t happened since 2010.

First of all, yes, it’s sad that I researched this information. Being that we drafted Herm Suarez and Ken Glazier this year, we don’t believe drafting returning champions is a curse, but it is an interesting coincidence. There should be no reason why a winner can’t repeat the feat the following year. Law of averages says when a team of 13 players is spread across many teams the following year, one of them is bound to repeat as champions. For whatever reason, it just has not worked out that way. Teams that have zero members of last year champions are:

Harris, Younger, Lapine, Beilis, Feldman, Goldfarb, Carlin, Granese, Marrone

3.       For the last five years, the championship team ranked in the top half of runs scored.

I did not project how many runs each team would score this year, but we can at least look at the recent trends for the only two teams who fit criteria 1 and 2.; Teams Carlin and Feldman.

Team Carlin Offensive Ranks 2010-2014:

2010: 4^th

2011: 4^th

2012: 9^th

2013: 6^th

2014: 3^rd

Team Feldman Offensive Ranks 2010-2014:

2010: 14^th

2011: 16^th

2012: 4^th

2013: 3^rd

2014: 13^th

Although Feldman has had a few seasons near the top of the offensive ranks, Carlin has been there more consistently.

This is why after looking at the three key indicators that have (largely by mere coincidences) predicted recent winners of the Marlboro Softball league, Team Carlin is the favorite to win the 2015 Marlboro Softball Championship.

As far as my own personal prediction, I have to go with the team that is #1 in my own pre-season power rankings, Team Younger.

My team will be happy to prove my own prognostics wrong. So will your team. Let the games begin.