NL First Round:

Goldfarb vs. Applebaum:

With all due respect to the players on Team Applebaum, but this is the one matchup where the outcome should be the most predictable. The bright side is that Applebaum only lost to Goldfarb by one run the last time they played. Unfortunately though, Goldfarb's pick of field allows them to avoid Applebaum's strength(right handed power) and plays right into the hands of a solid defensive team. Goldfarb may not be as dominant now as they were in the first half of the season, but that is not something to be concerned about until the second round.

Prediction: Goldfarb in two


Sarcona vs. Beilis:

We've saw just last year what a Beilis run ballclub can do in the playoffs despite a mediocre regular season. After dominating the middle of the season, Team Sarcona has looked more vulnerable lately only winning 2 of their last 5. Also, they lost both games to Beilis this season where the final scores weren't close. If you're looking for an upset in the National League, this may be the best chance.

Prediction: Beilis in three

Spiegel vs. Granese:

Like Team Sarcona, Spiegel was unstoppable in the middle of the season peaking with a 9-3 record after 12 games. The second half of the schedule has not been as kind and now Spiegel finds themselves matched up with a team that has the same record, but has been a lot more consistent this season. Despite the way the two teams have played lately, Spiegel has one big advantage: Municipal. It's the perfect field to try to tame the highest scoring NL team. Meanwhile, Spiegel has prided themselves as having one of the 2 or 3 best defenses in the league. This series will be close, but the choice of venue will help Spiegel make it to Round 2.

Prediction: Spiegel in three



Younger vs. Harris:

Younger was one of the most consistently good teams during the year buy Team Harris might be their kryptonite. Younger is 0-2 against Harris, but 9-3 against the rest of the NL competition. Meanwhile Harris was an NL best 7-4 in the second half despite having a -2 run differential over that span. Despite their strong play against Younger this year, I think Harris is going to have a short playoff run this year. Team Younger is one of the strongest squads in the league.

Prediction: Younger in two


AL Predictions:

Pollock vs. Lapine:

I'm going to continue the tradition of not predicting my own team's games, but I will offer the following excuses for both my team and Lapine's:

Pollock: While the record shows that we ended the season by getting blown out in two out of the last three games, those horrible losses were without our star pitcher Herm Suarez. With Herm back, I expect us to return to the form that earned us the top spot in the AL.

Lapine: The first time we beat Lapine, they were missing both Mesmers. The second time we beat Lapine, we squeaked out a one-run victory while they were missing Jessie Cytryn. If Lapine had a full squad both games, the results could have been drastically different.

No matter what happens, it'll be a little weird playing this huge series against both Mesmers instead of with them. I'm still bitter we didn't make it further in the playoffs last year.

Prediction: A well fought series won by ????


Peragine vs. Randell:

With all due respect to Teams Wallman and Feldman, if you asked pundits to rank the AL teams seeded #4-7 based on the threat they pose in the post season, chances are you would not get the current order. Randell's team may still have some holes (they still have only given up single digit runs twice this season), but they are the hottest hitting team entering the playoffs. It's not like Peragine has been slacking lately either. Like their first round counterparts, they enter the playoffs with four wins out of their last five games. The most common sentence I heard around the league the last few weeks of the season were "No one wants to play Randell in the playoffs." I think they're going to prove those people right with a first round victory.

Prediction: Randell in three

Wallman vs. Feldman:

The most interesting thing about this matchup is that the games are going to be played at the Manalapan Rec Center! I have a lot of wonderful Little League memories that took place at that complex. Yes, two of the last three Feldman wins have come against two of the best teams in Carlin and Goldfarb. Yes, Team Feldman almost beat Team Pollock in a 12-inning epic battle. No, I am still not on the Feldman bandwagon. While I think Team Wallman underachieved during the regular season, I still suspect they can make things very interesting in the post season.

Prediction: Wallman in two


Carlin vs. Schefkind:

Schefkind has played 8 games this year decided by just one run. Sounds like a lot until you consider Carlin has played in 11! If a computer were to simulate this playoff matchup, they'd have it going three games with the third being a 24 inning affair. These two teams seem to be THAT evenly matched. While Schefkind was playing short handed at the end of the season, I have to pick the team that's won 6 out of their last 7 games and has only lost by more than two runs TWICE this season. Still the most impressive team stat of the season.

Prediction: Carlin in three

How many runs are scored on each field?

At some point this year I was curious to see if what we said about certain fields held true. For instance, people always say Municipal is the worst place for hitters while Union Hill leads to the most runs scored. Was this actually true? Would the data back it up? I decided to keep track of the runs scored at each field this year. Wednesday night games are included in the Union Hill results. Here are the runs scored per field in order from highest to fewest.


Field Totals:

Field Runs Per Game

Union Hill Right 21.61
Marlboro Elementary 19.68
Marlboro Middle School 19.09
Union Hill Left 18.62
Swim Club 17.88
East Francis 16.50
Municipal 15.69


It looks like the results do correlate with what we think about the fields.

Here's more run scoring data:

This year there were 18.73 runs scored per game. The average last year was 20.09. Maybe the league's drug policy is starting to take effect.

Power Rankings

It's been awhile since our last full day of games, but what a crazy Sunday it was. Teams that were in first place in their divisions (including tied for first) coming into this week were only 3-6 on Sunday. Teams that were in second place went 6-1. That's why right now we have 8 teams who can make an argument for being one of the best in the league. You can actually expand that list if you include Team Randell who are 6-2 in their last 8 games and Team Schefkind who have gone seven games in a row without losing a game by more than one run. They are remarkably on a four game streak of playing in one-run games. Experience in these pressure cooking matchups may prove very beneficial come playoff time. Speaking of one run games, this week's Power Rankings leader, Team Carlin, has played in 10 one-run games this year. That has to be a Marlboro Softball record.

I'll do a full playoff preview after Sunday's games, but for now here are the latest power rankings. Once again, the first one is based on the formula I've started to use. The second one is based on my opinion.

Team Rankings (Formula)

1. Carlin (6) 140.25
2. Pollock (1) 134.25
3. Peragine (4) 130.5
4. Goldfarb (5) 128.25
5. Sarcona (2) 127.5
6. Granese (8) 114
7. Younger (3) 101.5
8. Spiegel (10) 79.5
9. Schefkind (9) 77.75
10. Beilis (7) 69.25
11. Harris (11) 67.25
12. Wallman (12) 59.75
13. Feldman (15) 42.25
14. Randell (14) 37.5
15. Lapine (13) 32.5
16. Applebaum (16) 18

Since this is the first year I created a formula, I realize some kind of tweaking needs to be done. The most glaring example is Team Randell's placement. Because they had such a horrible first half of the season, even their great stretch over the past 8 games isn't enough to move them past the 14th spot. Here's how the rankings look based on my own personal judgment, the way the rankings were done for the majority of the season:

1. Carlin
2. Pollock
3. Peragine
4. Sarcona
5. Goldfarb
6. Younger
7. Spiegel
8. Granese
9. Schefkind
10. Randell
11. Beilis
12. Harris
13. Wallman
14. Feldman
15. Lapine
16. Applebaum

Wednesday Night Preview

Carlin vs. Schefkind:
Projected Winner: Carlin

I do not want to play Schefkind in the first round. They're a 7-12 team that A) has lost six games this year by two or fewer runs and B) have missed key guys in multiple games, especially down the stretch. Tonight is no different which will hurt them against one of the best teams in the league. Team Carlin is locked in as an opening round 2nd seed so this will most likely be a first round preview. Throw out a 17 run loss to Team Pollock in Week 3 and here are the amount of runs Carlin has lost by this season: 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2.



Randell vs. Wallman:
Projected Winner: Randell

Fact Of The Day: Randell has given up 10 or more runs in every game except for ONE. I usually don't type anything in all caps, but that's amazing. To put it in perspective the next team on the list of most games giving up 10+ runs a game is Team Lapine who has held opponents to less than 10 runs a game in six games.

Fact Of The Day Part II and III: Randell has the longest current streak of scoring 10+ runs at games with 5 in a row coming into tonight. On the other hand, Wallman has cracked double digit runs only one time in their last seven games. They're the only team that can say this.


Bottom Line: Any game with Randell should result in at least 20 runs and playing on the highest scoring field in the league should yield even more. Randell has put together a strong second half performance and amazingly has a chance to get out of the 8th spot by the end of the season. I think that quest will be kept alive with a win tonight.

Power Rankings

I'm going to do two power rankings every week. The "official" rankings will be based on the formula I started using last week. The other will be based on my own judgment that I've been using for most of the season. The problem with a formula based ranking is that it does not take into account special game situations like key players missing games. Certain teams will be missing important players for the rest of the season, so their formula based rankings will take a beating. However, I can take that into consideration when doing my own list.

Like I mentioned last week, there's a chance the formula could be improved with some tweaking but for the most part I think it's a good indication of where teams are in relation to each other. I'm also going to list the total score for each team. Based on the point values, the highest a team could score is 160, the lowest is 10. If two teams are tied, the team with the overall best record will get the tie breaker. Here's a quick reminder how the system works:

I ranked each team in four categories. Each category carries a percentage of the overall score based on its importance:

Overall Record -35%
Overall Run Differential-35%
Second Half Record-15%
Second Half Run Differential-15%

I think second half performance is very important, but I also kept it mind that the last 11 games of the season are also factored into the "Overall" categories as well. For example, at the end of the season a team's second half record will really account for 22.5% of the formula (15% for "Second Half Record" and half of the 35% for Overall Record). I think this is a good balance to use. For each category the top team received 160 points, second best received 150 points, third received 140 points, etc. Multiply the points earned in that category by the percentage of the category and that's how many points a team earned for that part of the formula.

Even though the only games we had since the last power rankings were this past Wednesday Night, there still was movement on the list. I wonder how much the results are going to change after all the doubleheaders this week. It should be an exciting Softball Sunday!

Power Rankings Based on Formula:

1. Pollock (1) 150
2. Sarcona (3) 130.25
3. Younger (4) 129
4. Peragine (5) 126.5
5. Goldfarb (2) 123.5
6. Carlin (6) 110.5
7. Beilis (7) 108
8. Granese (8) 88.75
9. Schefkind (9) 79.5
10. Spiegel (10) 65.5
11. Harris (11) 65.5
12. Wallman (13) 56.75
13. Lapine (12) 48
14. Randell (14) 31.5
15. Feldman (15) 28.75
16. Applebaum(16) 18



And here are my own personal rankings:

1. Pollock
2. Younger
3. Goldfarb
4. Sarcona
5. Peragine
6. Carlin
7. Granese
8. Beilis
9. Spiegel
10. Harris
11. Schefkind
12. Wallman
13. Lapine
14. Randell
15. Feldman
16. Applebaum

Wednesday Night Predictions

I know if this were a job, I'd be fired for missing my deadline. But for the sake of posterity, here are my (abridged) Wednesday Night Predictions.

Lapine vs. Applebaum:
Winner: Lapine

It's been a long season for Team Applebaum, but the good news is if they start getting hot now then who knows what will happen in the playoffs! Lapine is coming off an excruciatingly tough loss and should be able to put it behind them with a win tonight.

Peragine vs. Goldfarb:
Winner: Peragine

Normally I'd be going with the team I still think is among the best three this season, but rumor is they are missing their Cy Young pitcher tonight. That is enough to tilt the balance in Peragine's favor who is still barely hanging on to the hopes of a division title.

Power Rankings

I made a little change when working on this week's power rankings. Instead of glancing at record, recent performance, I set up an easy formula to eliminate as much subjective thought as possible. Of course it's tough to eliminate it completely since I'm the one determining what to put in the formula. I ranked teams in different categories as if this were a rotisserie fantasy baseball league and assigned percentages for each category. The breakdown is:

Overall Record- 35%
Overall Run Differential- 35%
Second Half Record- 15%
Second Half Run Differential- 15%

I think this is a system that could be tinkered with forever. It's always debatable what kind of categories to include and what weight should be given to each. I wanted something that gives emphasis to how a team has played recently but does not ignore the whole season. If I put a ton of value on recent play then the rankings would fluctuate too much. The main goal was to come up with a formula where the end results pretty much align with what should be expected but also provide some insight that would have been missed if this power ranking was conducted just by glancing at the records. Another goal was to defeat the boredom of having nothing to do at my part-time job. I feel this was a huge success on both counts. I mentioned it in my previous post, but by far the change that stands out the most is how much Team Schefkind moved up. It has become clear that their 2-9 start was a product of bad luck. The system isn't perfect but I'm going to try using it for the remainder of the regular season. I also have some additional formulas in mind for a special playoffs preview at the end of the season. But until then, here are the latest rankings:

1. Pollock(1)
2. Goldfarb(2)
3. Sarcona(3)
4. Younger(4)
5. Peragine(6)
6. Carlin(5)
7. Beilis(9)
8. Granese(7)
9. Schefkind(15)
10. Spiegel(8)
11. Harris(12)
12. Lapine(11)
13. Wallman(10)
14. Randell(14)
15. Feldman(13)
16. Applebaum(16)